Compendium › Grace Crossover › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Grace Crossover's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-07 to present • 29 trades in period

-0.70%
Last 3 Months Return
$11,074.63
Current Value
34%
Win Rate
$11,152.99
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 11:30:21

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.1/35
Total Return
8.9/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.1/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality 18.0/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 17.8

30-Day Momentum

14
+0.4%
30d Return
27%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 15.4 Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,783
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-09 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$11,152.99
Current Value
$11,074.63
Period P&L
$-78.38
Max Drawdown
-17.9%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
10 / 19
Best Trade
+1.57%
Worst Trade
-1.70%
Avg Trade Return
-0.02%
Avg Hold Time
10.2h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$631,941.96
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-78.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$-78.38
Gross Return
-0.70%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.70%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $11,152.99 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET $363.82 30 $10,914.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:00pm ET $365.39 30 $10,961.70 $11,200.11 +$47.10
(+0.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.5h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 2:45pm ET $356.13 31 $11,040.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 2:55pm ET $355.02 31 $11,005.47 $11,165.55 $-34.56
(-0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
10m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $341.80 32 $10,937.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 3:05pm ET $345.26 32 $11,048.44 $11,276.39 +$110.84
(+1.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
5.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 9:55am ET $341.32 33 $11,263.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 11:20am ET $341.73 33 $11,277.09 $11,289.92 +$13.53
(+0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 12:00pm ET $319.43 35 $11,180.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 3:05pm ET $321.01 35 $11,235.35 $11,345.22 +$55.30
(+0.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.1h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET $330.12 34 $11,224.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 11:45am ET $332.98 34 $11,321.49 $11,442.63 +$97.41
(+0.9%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 1:30pm ET $312.41 36 $11,246.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 3:45pm ET $307.10 36 $11,055.42 $11,251.29 $-191.34
(-1.7%) 		DEATH_CROSS
4.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 11:55am ET $301.10 37 $11,140.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 12:10pm ET $300.08 37 $11,102.96 $11,213.55 $-37.74
(-0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
15m held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 12:40pm ET $304.33 36 $10,955.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 9:45am ET $303.62 36 $10,930.32 $11,188.17 $-25.38
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
21.1h held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET $304.02 36 $10,944.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 3:30pm ET $301.06 36 $10,838.16 $11,081.43 $-106.74
(-1.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
6h held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET $303.86 36 $10,938.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 11:25am ET $301.64 36 $10,859.22 $11,001.69 $-79.74
(-0.7%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 2:10pm ET $297.84 36 $10,722.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 2:15pm ET $296.40 36 $10,670.40 $10,949.85 $-51.84
(-0.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
5m held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $293.33 37 $10,853.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 2:15pm ET $294.26 37 $10,887.62 $10,984.44 +$34.59
(+0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 11:05am ET $302.01 36 $10,872.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 12:40pm ET $301.46 36 $10,852.56 $10,964.64 $-19.80
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 12:40pm ET $300.92 36 $10,832.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 3:05pm ET $300.27 36 $10,809.90 $10,941.60 $-23.04
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 11:40am ET $295.79 36 $10,648.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 1:15pm ET $299.19 36 $10,770.75 $11,064.00 +$122.40
(+1.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.1d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $304.71 36 $10,969.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 1:35pm ET $304.00 36 $10,944.00 $11,038.44 $-25.56
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
4.1h held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 3:10pm ET $300.28 36 $10,810.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 3:30pm ET $300.04 36 $10,801.29 $11,029.65 $-8.79
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
20m held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:55am ET $305.12 36 $10,984.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:10am ET $303.49 36 $10,925.82 $10,971.15 $-58.50
(-0.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
15m held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 12:40pm ET $315.83 34 $10,738.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 12:50pm ET $315.43 34 $10,724.69 $10,957.62 $-13.53
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
10m held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 1:30pm ET $314.35 34 $10,687.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 3:25pm ET $314.14 34 $10,680.93 $10,950.82 $-6.80
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 12:05pm ET $327.49 33 $10,807.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 12:50pm ET $326.92 33 $10,788.36 $10,932.01 $-18.81
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
45m held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:55am ET $332.01 32 $10,624.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 12:00pm ET $331.66 32 $10,613.12 $10,920.97 $-11.04
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
5m held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 3:25pm ET $331.12 32 $10,595.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 11:40am ET $331.96 32 $10,622.88 $10,948.01 +$27.04
(+0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 1:20pm ET $314.35 34 $10,687.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 3:20pm ET $314.30 34 $10,686.23 $10,946.34 $-1.67
(-0.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2h held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 12:15pm ET $318.15 34 $10,817.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 2:15pm ET $318.23 34 $10,819.82 $10,948.89 +$2.55
(+0.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2h held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 1:25pm ET $321.30 34 $10,924.03 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:40am ET $321.16 34 $10,919.44 $10,944.30 $-4.59
(-0.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held
28 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 10:15am ET $320.90 34 $10,910.49 — — —
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 11:25am ET $319.77 34 $10,872.01 $10,905.82 $-38.48
(-0.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held
29 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 2:10pm ET $315.81 34 $10,737.54 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 11:30am ET $320.77 34 $10,906.35 $11,074.63 +$168.81
(+1.6%) 		DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,074.63
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,074.63
Total Return: +10.75%
Back to Grace Crossover