Compendium › Grace Crossover › MCD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MCD
Alpaca Tradeable

Grace Crossover's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-23 to present • 25 trades in period

-1.48%
Last 3 Months Return
$8,233.10
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$8,356.44
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-23 12:23:05

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
71.6 overbought
20d Trend
+5.3%
5d Trend
+2.7%
EMA20 Dist
+2.8%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
87%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Jun 23, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.0/10
Raw Quality 4.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 3.9

30-Day Momentum

6
-0.7%
30d Return
38%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1 Conf: 0.81×
Steady (+2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,949
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-23
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,356.44
Current Value
$8,233.10
Period P&L
$-123.31
Max Drawdown
-16.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.07

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
25
Winners / Losers
10 / 15
Best Trade
+1.19%
Worst Trade
-2.83%
Avg Trade Return
-0.06%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$413,606.18
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-123.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$-123.31
Gross Return
-1.48%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.48%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MCD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 25 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $8,356.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $312.88 26 $8,134.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:55am ET $309.90 26 $8,057.40 $8,279.06 $-77.35
(-1.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
25m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET $309.36 26 $8,043.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 10:10am ET $311.80 26 $8,106.93 $8,342.50 +$63.44
(+0.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $308.75 27 $8,336.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 1:30pm ET $309.03 27 $8,343.81 $8,350.06 +$7.56
(+0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 3:05pm ET $307.45 27 $8,301.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 10:35am ET $304.98 27 $8,234.39 $8,283.17 $-66.89
(-0.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
6.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 2:35pm ET $305.83 27 $8,257.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 2:35pm ET $303.24 27 $8,187.52 $8,213.28 $-69.89
(-0.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:40pm ET $302.39 27 $8,164.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 2:05pm ET $305.64 27 $8,252.28 $8,301.03 +$87.75
(+1.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
23.4h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $307.77 26 $8,002.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 2:50pm ET $311.43 26 $8,097.18 $8,396.06 +$95.03
(+1.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
22.9h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 9:35am ET $302.27 27 $8,161.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 12:35pm ET $303.16 27 $8,185.41 $8,420.31 +$24.25
(+0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 11:30am ET $291.27 28 $8,155.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 1:15pm ET $291.23 28 $8,154.44 $8,419.05 $-1.26
(-0.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 3:50pm ET $293.52 28 $8,218.56 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:25am ET $292.88 28 $8,200.64 $8,401.13 $-17.92
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
18.6h held
11 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 10:00am ET $285.14 29 $8,269.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 1:00pm ET $284.55 29 $8,251.81 $8,383.73 $-17.40
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3h held
12 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 2:20pm ET $283.68 29 $8,226.86 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 3:45pm ET $283.54 29 $8,222.66 $8,379.53 $-4.20
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held
13 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 1:45pm ET $274.06 30 $8,221.80 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 12:15pm ET $276.71 30 $8,301.30 $8,459.03 +$79.50
(+1.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
22.5h held
14 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 1:55pm ET $275.50 30 $8,265.00 — — —
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 10:05am ET $275.20 30 $8,255.85 $8,449.88 $-9.15
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
20.2h held
15 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 12:15pm ET $276.21 30 $8,286.30 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 12:30pm ET $275.84 30 $8,275.20 $8,438.78 $-11.10
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
15m held
16 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 11:20am ET $279.64 30 $8,389.20 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:30am ET $282.71 30 $8,481.30 $8,530.88 +$92.10
(+1.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held
17 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 11:55am ET $280.73 30 $8,421.90 — — —
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $281.80 30 $8,454.00 $8,562.98 +$32.10
(+0.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1d held
18 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 3:25pm ET $278.12 30 $8,343.60 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 3:50pm ET $277.80 30 $8,334.15 $8,553.53 $-9.45
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
25m held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 1:55pm ET $274.53 31 $8,510.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 1:15pm ET $275.24 31 $8,532.44 $8,575.54 +$22.01
(+0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
23.3h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $277.88 30 $8,336.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 10:55am ET $275.57 30 $8,266.95 $8,506.24 $-69.30
(-0.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:25pm ET $278.28 30 $8,348.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 8, 2026 1:40pm ET $278.04 30 $8,341.20 $8,499.04 $-7.20
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
15m held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 11:30am ET $282.92 30 $8,487.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 10:00am ET $284.65 30 $8,539.65 $8,551.24 +$52.20
(+0.6%) 		DEATH_CROSS
22.5h held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $288.14 29 $8,355.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:50am ET $285.71 29 $8,285.59 $8,480.84 $-70.40
(-0.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
20m held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 2:55pm ET $284.23 29 $8,242.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:30pm ET $283.86 29 $8,231.94 $8,470.25 $-10.59
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
35m held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 3:45pm ET $279.48 30 $8,384.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 11:40am ET $271.58 30 $8,147.40 $8,233.10 $-237.15
(-2.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
4.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,233.10
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,766.90
Total Return: -17.67%
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