Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 16:07:04

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.6/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 31.9/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 31.3

30-Day Momentum

4
-4.2%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,914
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,248.01
Current Value
$13,884.57
Period P&L
$-363.43
Max Drawdown
-11.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.00

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
11 / 18
Best Trade
+11.32%
Worst Trade
-15.81%
Avg Trade Return
-0.00%
Avg Hold Time
17.5h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$841,907.82
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-363.43
Net P&L (after fees)
$-363.43
Gross Return
-2.55%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.55%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $14,248.01 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 12:05pm ET $113.20 125 $14,150.00
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 1:00pm ET $111.33 125 $13,916.13 $14,014.13 $-233.87
(-1.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
55m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:25am ET $111.78 125 $13,972.50
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 2:20pm ET $117.68 125 $14,710.00 $14,751.63 +$737.50
(+5.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:40pm ET $128.65 114 $14,666.10
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 9:45am ET $128.62 114 $14,662.68 $14,748.21 $-3.42
(-0.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
19.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 11:30am ET $124.78 118 $14,724.04
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $138.90 118 $16,390.20 $16,414.37 +$1,666.16
(+11.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
22h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 1:00pm ET $138.67 118 $16,363.05
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 2:45pm ET $139.21 118 $16,426.78 $16,478.10 +$63.73
(+0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 3:00pm ET $141.60 116 $16,425.58
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $119.21 116 $13,827.90 $13,880.42 $-2,597.68
(-15.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 10:55am ET $126.14 110 $13,875.40
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 1:05pm ET $126.72 110 $13,939.20 $13,944.22 +$63.80
(+0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 3:35pm ET $123.83 112 $13,868.96
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $123.15 112 $13,792.40 $13,867.66 $-76.56
(-0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
17.9h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $124.11 111 $13,776.21
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 2:35pm ET $127.12 111 $14,110.32 $14,201.77 +$334.11
(+2.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
5.1h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 10:10am ET $122.55 115 $14,093.25
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 1:55pm ET $125.57 115 $14,440.54 $14,549.06 +$347.29
(+2.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 2:20pm ET $130.19 111 $14,451.09
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 2:55pm ET $129.83 111 $14,411.13 $14,509.10 $-39.96
(-0.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
35m held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 2:20pm ET $131.71 110 $14,488.10
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 12:10pm ET $134.43 110 $14,787.30 $14,808.30 +$299.20
(+2.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:10pm ET $139.38 106 $14,774.28
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 3:25pm ET $139.64 106 $14,801.84 $14,835.86 +$27.56
(+0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 2:25pm ET $146.63 101 $14,809.63
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $143.40 101 $14,483.40 $14,509.63 $-326.23
(-2.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
19.1h held
15 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 2:15pm ET $147.69 98 $14,473.62
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 3:15pm ET $147.49 98 $14,454.02 $14,490.03 $-19.60
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
1h held
16 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 1:20pm ET $134.32 107 $14,371.79
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 1:30pm ET $133.62 107 $14,297.34 $14,415.58 $-74.45
(-0.5%)
DEATH_CROSS
10m held
17 🟢 BUY May 8, 2026 10:35am ET $134.41 107 $14,381.87
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 3:25pm ET $134.28 107 $14,367.96 $14,401.67 $-13.91
(-0.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
4.8h held
18 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 9:30am ET $143.61 100 $14,361.00
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 1:10pm ET $143.36 100 $14,335.99 $14,376.66 $-25.01
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.7h held
19 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 12:50pm ET $141.47 101 $14,288.47
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:30am ET $146.02 101 $14,748.52 $14,836.71 +$460.05
(+3.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
3.9d held
20 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 9:40am ET $152.72 97 $14,813.84
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 11:05am ET $150.77 97 $14,624.69 $14,647.56 $-189.15
(-1.3%)
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held
21 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 2:20pm ET $144.21 101 $14,564.71
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 2:30pm ET $143.61 101 $14,504.61 $14,587.46 $-60.10
(-0.4%)
DEATH_CROSS
10m held
22 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $143.30 101 $14,473.30
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 10:00am ET $142.40 101 $14,382.40 $14,496.56 $-90.90
(-0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.1h held
23 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 3:25pm ET $137.64 105 $14,452.20
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 3:35pm ET $137.40 105 $14,426.48 $14,470.84 $-25.72
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
10m held
24 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 3:40pm ET $131.00 110 $14,409.91
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:15am ET $129.42 110 $14,236.19 $14,297.12 $-173.72
(-1.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.6h held
25 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 10:40am ET $130.10 109 $14,181.28
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $135.27 109 $14,744.97 $14,860.81 +$563.69
(+4.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
4d held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 2:30pm ET $136.58 108 $14,750.64
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $135.04 108 $14,583.78 $14,693.95 $-166.86
(-1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
19h held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:10pm ET $135.51 108 $14,635.08
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $131.87 108 $14,241.96 $14,300.83 $-393.12
(-2.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 10:45am ET $134.29 106 $14,234.74
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:15pm ET $134.56 106 $14,263.54 $14,329.63 +$28.80
(+0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.5h held
29 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 1:05pm ET $120.21 119 $14,304.99
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $116.47 119 $13,859.93 $13,884.57 $-445.06
(-3.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,884.57
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,884.57
Total Return: +38.85%
Back to Grace Crossover