Compendium › Grace Crossover › XLE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLE
Alpaca Tradeable

Grace Crossover's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-07 to present • 27 trades in period

-5.14%
Last 3 Months Return
$9,767.65
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$10,297.21
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-07 14:04:54

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality 3.8/100
× Confidence 1.00 = 3.8

30-Day Momentum

9
-3.6%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0 Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,813
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-09 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,297.21
Current Value
$9,767.65
Period P&L
$-529.53
Max Drawdown
-13.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.13

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
13 / 14
Best Trade
+2.03%
Worst Trade
-5.52%
Avg Trade Return
-0.19%
Avg Hold Time
23.7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$541,235.38
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-529.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$-529.53
Gross Return
-5.14%
Net Return (after fees)
-5.14%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $10,297.21 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 3:50pm ET $53.69 191 $10,253.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $53.70 191 $10,256.70 $10,300.04 +$2.86
(+0.0%) 		📅 Sim Ended
6m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET $54.59 188 $10,262.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 1:50pm ET $54.83 188 $10,308.04 $10,345.16 +$45.12
(+0.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
4.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $54.62 189 $10,322.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 2:15pm ET $55.04 189 $10,402.56 $10,425.48 +$80.32
(+0.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
6.2d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 12:00pm ET $54.63 190 $10,378.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET $54.35 190 $10,326.50 $10,373.23 $-52.25
(-0.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
21.5h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET $55.64 186 $10,349.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 10:05am ET $55.12 186 $10,251.39 $10,275.58 $-97.65
(-0.9%) 		DEATH_CROSS
35m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 1:15pm ET $56.79 180 $10,222.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 2:00pm ET $56.69 180 $10,203.39 $10,256.77 $-18.81
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
45m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 11:05am ET $56.18 182 $10,224.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 11:20am ET $55.94 182 $10,180.17 $10,212.18 $-44.59
(-0.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
15m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $56.47 180 $10,165.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:55am ET $56.28 180 $10,130.40 $10,177.08 $-35.10
(-0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
18h held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:55am ET $56.74 179 $10,157.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 11:45am ET $56.72 179 $10,152.88 $10,172.61 $-4.47
(-0.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 12:10pm ET $56.29 180 $10,133.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 2:15pm ET $56.63 180 $10,193.40 $10,232.91 +$60.30
(+0.6%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 12:40pm ET $57.56 177 $10,188.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 3:45pm ET $57.71 177 $10,213.79 $10,258.58 +$25.67
(+0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.1h held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET $58.20 176 $10,243.41 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 10:10am ET $58.61 176 $10,315.36 $10,330.53 +$71.95
(+0.7%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET $59.69 173 $10,325.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 1:15pm ET $60.01 173 $10,380.87 $10,385.89 +$55.36
(+0.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.8h held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $59.95 173 $10,371.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 12:25pm ET $60.74 173 $10,508.02 $10,522.56 +$136.67
(+1.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 2:50pm ET $62.66 167 $10,464.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 10:45am ET $62.67 167 $10,465.06 $10,523.40 +$0.84
(+0.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 12:35pm ET $62.49 168 $10,498.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $60.31 168 $10,132.08 $10,157.16 $-366.24
(-3.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
20.9h held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 2:20pm ET $59.19 171 $10,120.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:55am ET $59.03 171 $10,094.80 $10,131.32 $-25.84
(-0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET $60.12 168 $10,100.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $56.80 168 $9,542.40 $9,573.58 $-557.74
(-5.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
18.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:50am ET $56.93 168 $9,564.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:25pm ET $56.79 168 $9,541.56 $9,550.90 $-22.68
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $57.13 167 $9,541.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $56.35 167 $9,411.28 $9,420.64 $-130.26
(-1.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
17.6h held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 10:45am ET $55.79 168 $9,372.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 11:55am ET $55.67 168 $9,353.40 $9,401.32 $-19.32
(-0.2%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 12:25pm ET $54.29 173 $9,393.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 12:05pm ET $55.40 173 $9,583.34 $9,591.62 +$190.30
(+2.0%) 		DEATH_CROSS
3d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 1:25pm ET $56.43 169 $9,536.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET $56.63 169 $9,571.31 $9,626.26 +$34.64
(+0.4%) 		DEATH_CROSS
21.6h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 2:10pm ET $56.85 169 $9,608.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 3:35pm ET $56.83 169 $9,603.43 $9,621.19 $-5.07
(-0.1%) 		DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 3:45pm ET $57.74 166 $9,585.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 2:20pm ET $58.76 166 $9,754.99 $9,790.51 +$169.32
(+1.8%) 		DEATH_CROSS
22.6h held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 2:45pm ET $59.51 164 $9,760.36 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:35am ET $59.22 164 $9,712.08 $9,742.23 $-48.28
(-0.5%) 		DEATH_CROSS
18.8h held
27 🟢 BUY May 5, 2026 11:30am ET $59.38 164 $9,738.32 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 3:50pm ET $59.53 164 $9,763.74 $9,767.65 +$25.42
(+0.3%) 		DEATH_CROSS
4.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,767.65
Net Profit/Loss: $-232.35
Total Return: -2.32%
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