ARKK Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
+6.96%
Year to Date Return
$11,289.55
Current Value
32%
Win Rate
$10,554.44
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
19
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.2/35
Total Return
9.5/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.8/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
19.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 19.3
30-Day Momentum
55
+9.9%
30d Return
44%
Win Rate
9
Trades
3.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 65.7
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+36 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,742
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,554.44
Current Value
$11,289.55
Period P&L
$735.07
Max Drawdown
-13.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
13 /
28
Best Trade
+8.09%
Worst Trade
-4.21%
Avg Trade Return
+0.18%
Avg Hold Time
16.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$887,378.29
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$735.07
Net P&L (after fees)
$735.07
Gross Return
+6.96%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.96%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $10,554.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 2:15pm ET | $78.02 | 135 | $10,532.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 1:15pm ET | $80.74 | 135 | $10,899.90 | $10,921.68 |
+$367.20 (+3.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:50pm ET | $81.21 | 134 | $10,882.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:00am ET | $81.36 | 134 | $10,902.24 | $10,941.77 |
+$20.09 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 12:00pm ET | $80.75 | 135 | $10,901.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 1:30pm ET | $80.71 | 135 | $10,895.85 | $10,936.37 |
$-5.40 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 1:55pm ET | $80.67 | 135 | $10,890.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 2:00pm ET | $80.57 | 135 | $10,876.95 | $10,922.87 |
$-13.50 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 2:30pm ET | $82.27 | 132 | $10,859.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:00am ET | $82.16 | 132 | $10,845.12 | $10,908.35 |
$-14.52 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:30am ET | $83.18 | 131 | $10,896.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 11:50am ET | $82.66 | 131 | $10,828.46 | $10,840.23 |
$-68.12 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 2:15pm ET | $83.43 | 129 | $10,762.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 2:20pm ET | $83.24 | 129 | $10,737.96 | $10,815.72 |
$-24.51 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 11:55am ET | $80.51 | 134 | $10,788.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 12:30pm ET | $80.07 | 134 | $10,729.38 | $10,756.76 |
$-58.96 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
36m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 1:50pm ET | $79.16 | 135 | $10,686.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 3:25pm ET | $82.06 | 135 | $11,078.10 | $11,148.26 |
+$391.50 (+3.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $80.61 | 138 | $11,123.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 1:05pm ET | $80.46 | 138 | $11,102.79 | $11,127.56 |
$-20.70 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 2:30pm ET | $79.83 | 139 | $11,096.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:10am ET | $79.43 | 139 | $11,040.77 | $11,071.96 |
$-55.60 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.7h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:15pm ET | $77.71 | 142 | $11,034.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:30pm ET | $77.14 | 142 | $10,953.88 | $10,991.73 |
$-80.23 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 2:15pm ET | $75.52 | 145 | $10,950.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 2:35pm ET | $75.26 | 145 | $10,911.98 | $10,953.30 |
$-38.43 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 2:55pm ET | $72.68 | 150 | $10,902.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $72.07 | 150 | $10,811.25 | $10,862.55 |
$-90.75 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.7h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:55am ET | $68.06 | 159 | $10,821.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $67.68 | 159 | $10,761.12 | $10,802.13 |
$-60.42 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
12m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $70.08 | 154 | $10,792.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $72.47 | 154 | $11,161.15 | $11,170.96 |
+$368.83 (+3.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $69.74 | 160 | $11,158.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $69.67 | 160 | $11,147.20 | $11,159.76 |
$-11.20 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 10:05am ET | $71.67 | 155 | $11,108.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 12:45pm ET | $71.33 | 155 | $11,056.15 | $11,107.06 |
$-52.70 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 1:45pm ET | $71.80 | 154 | $11,057.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $71.40 | 154 | $10,995.60 | $11,045.46 |
$-61.60 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $73.81 | 149 | $10,996.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:55am ET | $73.31 | 149 | $10,922.45 | $10,970.96 |
$-74.50 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 3:10pm ET | $72.64 | 151 | $10,968.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $71.01 | 151 | $10,722.51 | $10,724.83 |
$-246.13 (-2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:30am ET | $71.64 | 149 | $10,674.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:15pm ET | $72.60 | 149 | $10,817.40 | $10,867.87 |
+$143.04 (+1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 3:10pm ET | $73.39 | 148 | $10,861.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $72.06 | 148 | $10,664.88 | $10,671.03 |
$-196.84 (-1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.3h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $72.46 | 147 | $10,652.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 1:30pm ET | $72.49 | 147 | $10,655.30 | $10,673.97 |
+$2.94 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.75 | 144 | $10,620.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 11:10am ET | $73.14 | 144 | $10,532.16 | $10,586.13 |
$-87.84 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 1:40pm ET | $71.26 | 148 | $10,546.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:50am ET | $71.10 | 148 | $10,522.80 | $10,562.45 |
$-23.68 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.2h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:45pm ET | $71.76 | 147 | $10,548.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 11:35am ET | $72.63 | 147 | $10,676.61 | $10,690.34 |
+$127.89 (+1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 1:35pm ET | $72.57 | 147 | $10,667.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $69.51 | 147 | $10,217.97 | $10,241.25 |
$-449.09 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $70.02 | 146 | $10,222.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $70.50 | 146 | $10,293.00 | $10,311.33 |
+$70.08 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $68.97 | 149 | $10,276.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $70.08 | 149 | $10,441.92 | $10,476.72 |
+$165.39 (+1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $65.26 | 160 | $10,441.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET | $64.51 | 160 | $10,321.60 | $10,357.31 |
$-119.41 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $68.41 | 151 | $10,329.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 12:20pm ET | $67.83 | 151 | $10,242.33 | $10,269.73 |
$-87.58 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $68.45 | 150 | $10,267.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:00pm ET | $69.08 | 150 | $10,362.75 | $10,364.98 |
+$95.25 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 3:10pm ET | $69.19 | 149 | $10,309.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 11:25am ET | $74.79 | 149 | $11,143.71 | $11,199.38 |
+$834.40 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 1:50pm ET | $76.71 | 145 | $11,123.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 2:00pm ET | $76.56 | 145 | $11,101.20 | $11,176.91 |
$-22.47 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:45am ET | $78.83 | 141 | $11,115.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $78.53 | 141 | $11,072.73 | $11,134.60 |
$-42.31 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 3:00pm ET | $78.29 | 142 | $11,116.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 12:20pm ET | $78.86 | 142 | $11,198.12 | $11,216.25 |
+$81.65 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.33 | 145 | $11,213.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 11:20am ET | $76.44 | 145 | $11,083.80 | $11,086.48 |
$-129.77 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 1:10pm ET | $76.57 | 144 | $11,026.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 2:55pm ET | $76.51 | 144 | $11,017.44 | $11,077.84 |
$-8.64 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 1:35pm ET | $73.30 | 151 | $11,068.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:05pm ET | $73.06 | 151 | $11,032.06 | $11,041.60 |
$-36.24 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $76.07 | 145 | $11,030.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $77.78 | 145 | $11,278.10 | $11,289.55 |
+$247.95 (+2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,289.55
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,289.55
Total Return:
+12.90%