COIN Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 39 trades in period
-9.79%
Year to Date Return
$12,743.63
Current Value
31%
Win Rate
$14,127.20
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
13.1 oversold
20d Trend
-42.6%
5d Trend
-24.4%
EMA20 Dist
-25.8%
ATR%
6.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
22
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.5/35
Total Return
12.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
22.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 22.4
30-Day Momentum
7
-4.4%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.6
Conf: 0.84×
Declining (-15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,362
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$14,127.20
Current Value
$12,743.63
Period P&L
$-1,383.61
Max Drawdown
-23.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.09
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
12 /
27
Best Trade
+8.04%
Worst Trade
-4.37%
Avg Trade Return
-0.23%
Avg Hold Time
13.4h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,076,131.15
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,383.61
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,383.61
Gross Return
-9.79%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.79%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 COIN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $14,127.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $228.59 | 61 | $13,943.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $236.53 | 61 | $14,428.33 | $14,611.56 |
+$484.34 (+3.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $248.42 | 58 | $14,408.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $245.32 | 58 | $14,228.56 | $14,431.77 |
$-179.79 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 11:45am ET | $248.26 | 58 | $14,398.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 1:45pm ET | $247.98 | 58 | $14,382.84 | $14,415.66 |
$-16.11 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 1:45pm ET | $242.19 | 59 | $14,288.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 2:25pm ET | $240.31 | 59 | $14,178.29 | $14,305.03 |
$-110.63 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
42m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 2:55pm ET | $245.22 | 58 | $14,222.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 3:40pm ET | $243.51 | 58 | $14,123.58 | $14,205.74 |
$-99.29 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
48m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 3:35pm ET | $255.96 | 55 | $14,077.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $248.86 | 55 | $13,687.30 | $13,815.52 |
$-390.23 (-2.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.9h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 11:40am ET | $240.81 | 57 | $13,726.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 2:45pm ET | $241.19 | 57 | $13,747.83 | $13,837.32 |
+$21.80 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.1h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $229.46 | 60 | $13,767.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:25am ET | $228.22 | 60 | $13,693.20 | $13,763.10 |
$-74.22 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 12:50pm ET | $225.76 | 60 | $13,545.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $224.77 | 60 | $13,486.20 | $13,703.76 |
$-59.34 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 12:35pm ET | $214.18 | 63 | $13,493.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 2:40pm ET | $213.52 | 63 | $13,451.45 | $13,661.87 |
$-41.90 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 9:50am ET | $212.24 | 64 | $13,583.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:15am ET | $209.77 | 64 | $13,424.96 | $13,503.72 |
$-158.15 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
24m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:40pm ET | $197.85 | 68 | $13,453.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:00pm ET | $197.03 | 68 | $13,397.87 | $13,447.79 |
$-55.93 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 2:05pm ET | $194.86 | 69 | $13,445.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 3:10pm ET | $193.34 | 69 | $13,340.46 | $13,342.91 |
$-104.88 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:20pm ET | $176.94 | 75 | $13,270.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $175.24 | 75 | $13,143.00 | $13,215.41 |
$-127.50 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $154.88 | 85 | $13,164.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 1:25pm ET | $165.00 | 85 | $14,025.00 | $14,075.61 |
+$860.20 (+6.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:45am ET | $165.66 | 84 | $13,915.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $166.29 | 84 | $13,967.94 | $14,128.11 |
+$52.50 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:55am ET | $166.40 | 84 | $13,977.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 12:50pm ET | $163.63 | 84 | $13,744.50 | $13,895.43 |
$-232.68 (-1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 10:35am ET | $159.47 | 87 | $13,873.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 10:45am ET | $157.56 | 87 | $13,707.72 | $13,729.26 |
$-166.17 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 10:00am ET | $185.18 | 74 | $13,703.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:35am ET | $182.59 | 74 | $13,511.71 | $13,537.65 |
$-191.61 (-1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 3:15pm ET | $175.47 | 77 | $13,511.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 1:20pm ET | $182.44 | 77 | $14,047.88 | $14,074.34 |
+$536.69 (+4.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $195.70 | 71 | $13,894.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 12:10pm ET | $211.44 | 71 | $15,012.24 | $15,191.88 |
+$1,117.54 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 2:20pm ET | $204.75 | 74 | $15,151.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $197.60 | 74 | $14,622.40 | $14,662.78 |
$-529.10 (-3.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 1:10pm ET | $197.26 | 74 | $14,597.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $196.20 | 74 | $14,518.80 | $14,584.34 |
$-78.44 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $203.68 | 71 | $14,461.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 12:00pm ET | $197.71 | 71 | $14,037.41 | $14,160.47 |
$-423.87 (-2.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.5h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:30pm ET | $206.46 | 68 | $14,039.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:35pm ET | $210.19 | 68 | $14,292.92 | $14,414.11 |
+$253.64 (+1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.1h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $200.70 | 71 | $14,249.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $201.24 | 71 | $14,287.69 | $14,452.45 |
+$38.34 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $184.75 | 78 | $14,410.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET | $184.99 | 78 | $14,429.22 | $14,471.17 |
+$18.72 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 3:20pm ET | $173.70 | 83 | $14,417.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $166.16 | 83 | $13,791.28 | $13,845.35 |
$-625.82 (-4.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $164.53 | 84 | $13,820.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:05am ET | $161.07 | 84 | $13,529.88 | $13,554.71 |
$-290.64 (-2.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 3:00pm ET | $171.50 | 79 | $13,548.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 3:30pm ET | $175.31 | 79 | $13,849.49 | $13,855.70 |
+$300.99 (+2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $171.28 | 80 | $13,702.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 1:00pm ET | $172.01 | 80 | $13,761.20 | $13,914.50 |
+$58.80 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:00pm ET | $168.03 | 82 | $13,778.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $164.85 | 82 | $13,518.11 | $13,654.15 |
$-260.35 (-1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:45pm ET | $184.10 | 74 | $13,623.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 12:50pm ET | $189.49 | 74 | $14,022.26 | $14,053.38 |
+$399.23 (+2.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.1h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:25am ET | $205.68 | 68 | $13,986.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:20pm ET | $196.70 | 68 | $13,375.27 | $13,442.41 |
$-610.97 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:10am ET | $202.67 | 66 | $13,376.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $201.31 | 66 | $13,286.46 | $13,352.65 |
$-89.76 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $201.07 | 66 | $13,270.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $196.88 | 66 | $12,994.41 | $13,076.11 |
$-276.54 (-2.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 1:15pm ET | $180.07 | 72 | $12,965.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:15pm ET | $178.79 | 72 | $12,872.88 | $12,983.94 |
$-92.17 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $192.50 | 67 | $12,897.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 12:20pm ET | $192.03 | 67 | $12,866.01 | $12,952.57 |
$-31.37 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $206.39 | 62 | $12,796.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $203.02 | 62 | $12,587.24 | $12,743.63 |
$-208.94 (-1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$12,743.63
Net Profit/Loss:
+$2,743.63
Total Return:
+27.44%