HD Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 39 trades in period
+4.94%
Year to Date Return
$9,887.80
Current Value
28%
Win Rate
$9,422.53
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality
4.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 4.1
30-Day Momentum
9
-0.1%
30d Return
36%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.90×
Steady (+5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,384
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,422.53
Current Value
$9,887.80
Period P&L
$465.27
Max Drawdown
-11.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.13
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
11 /
28
Best Trade
+2.97%
Worst Trade
-1.44%
Avg Trade Return
+0.13%
Avg Hold Time
12.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$761,703.75
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$465.27
Net P&L (after fees)
$465.27
Gross Return
+4.94%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.94%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,422.53 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 2:20pm ET | $346.48 | 27 | $9,354.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 3:25pm ET | $345.52 | 27 | $9,328.99 | $9,396.55 |
$-25.97 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:55am ET | $343.44 | 27 | $9,272.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 12:55pm ET | $352.31 | 27 | $9,512.24 | $9,635.91 |
+$239.36 (+2.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $363.88 | 26 | $9,460.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 2:15pm ET | $374.69 | 26 | $9,741.81 | $9,916.84 |
+$280.93 (+3.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 11:20am ET | $378.95 | 26 | $9,852.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 12:40pm ET | $377.88 | 26 | $9,824.88 | $9,888.95 |
$-27.88 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 2:00pm ET | $378.55 | 26 | $9,842.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:35am ET | $377.92 | 26 | $9,825.79 | $9,872.57 |
$-16.38 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $375.20 | 26 | $9,755.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 3:10pm ET | $374.95 | 26 | $9,748.58 | $9,865.95 |
$-6.62 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 2:10pm ET | $384.11 | 25 | $9,602.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:35pm ET | $383.73 | 25 | $9,593.19 | $9,856.51 |
$-9.44 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
24m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $384.63 | 25 | $9,615.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $383.79 | 25 | $9,594.75 | $9,835.51 |
$-21.00 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 2:05pm ET | $372.80 | 26 | $9,692.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 2:30pm ET | $371.53 | 26 | $9,659.78 | $9,802.49 |
$-33.02 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
24m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 11:50am ET | $375.06 | 26 | $9,751.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:35am ET | $383.38 | 26 | $9,967.88 | $10,018.81 |
+$216.32 (+2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 2:25pm ET | $387.59 | 25 | $9,689.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 2:30pm ET | $386.36 | 25 | $9,659.00 | $9,988.06 |
$-30.75 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $384.86 | 25 | $9,621.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:30pm ET | $383.60 | 25 | $9,589.94 | $9,956.63 |
$-31.44 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:20pm ET | $379.93 | 26 | $9,878.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $381.28 | 26 | $9,913.28 | $9,991.73 |
+$35.10 (+0.4%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.6h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 11:35am ET | $388.66 | 25 | $9,716.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 2:45pm ET | $388.67 | 25 | $9,716.75 | $9,991.98 |
+$0.25 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 2:50pm ET | $382.82 | 26 | $9,953.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $381.95 | 26 | $9,930.70 | $9,969.36 |
$-22.62 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $382.50 | 26 | $9,945.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:35am ET | $379.90 | 26 | $9,877.40 | $9,901.76 |
$-67.60 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 1:50pm ET | $380.40 | 26 | $9,890.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $379.65 | 26 | $9,870.90 | $9,882.26 |
$-19.50 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 1:05pm ET | $374.46 | 26 | $9,736.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 11:25am ET | $377.67 | 26 | $9,819.42 | $9,965.59 |
+$83.33 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 12:55pm ET | $372.35 | 26 | $9,681.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 1:40pm ET | $371.15 | 26 | $9,649.90 | $9,934.39 |
$-31.20 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 11:25am ET | $365.99 | 27 | $9,881.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $365.05 | 27 | $9,856.35 | $9,909.01 |
$-25.38 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 11:35am ET | $357.58 | 27 | $9,654.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 12:50pm ET | $357.45 | 27 | $9,651.28 | $9,905.64 |
$-3.38 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $348.24 | 28 | $9,750.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $358.46 | 28 | $10,037.02 | $10,191.94 |
+$286.30 (+2.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:40am ET | $342.88 | 29 | $9,943.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $340.81 | 29 | $9,883.49 | $10,131.91 |
$-60.03 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 2:20pm ET | $343.14 | 29 | $9,951.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:25pm ET | $342.84 | 29 | $9,942.36 | $10,123.21 |
$-8.70 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 3:05pm ET | $327.90 | 30 | $9,837.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $326.45 | 30 | $9,793.50 | $10,079.71 |
$-43.50 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 2:05pm ET | $332.16 | 30 | $9,964.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $331.92 | 30 | $9,957.60 | $10,072.51 |
$-7.20 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $337.02 | 29 | $9,773.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 3:15pm ET | $332.17 | 29 | $9,632.79 | $9,931.57 |
$-140.94 (-1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 11:55am ET | $326.66 | 30 | $9,799.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 12:25pm ET | $325.43 | 30 | $9,762.90 | $9,894.67 |
$-36.90 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 10:15am ET | $321.68 | 30 | $9,650.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 1:10pm ET | $324.41 | 30 | $9,732.30 | $9,976.57 |
+$81.90 (+0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 2:05pm ET | $336.28 | 29 | $9,752.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:20pm ET | $335.51 | 29 | $9,729.65 | $9,954.10 |
$-22.47 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:05pm ET | $336.99 | 29 | $9,772.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $336.76 | 29 | $9,765.90 | $9,947.14 |
$-6.96 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:00pm ET | $341.60 | 29 | $9,906.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $341.05 | 29 | $9,890.59 | $9,931.33 |
$-15.81 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $343.00 | 28 | $9,604.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:30pm ET | $349.42 | 28 | $9,783.76 | $10,111.09 |
+$179.76 (+1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 3:25pm ET | $345.32 | 29 | $10,014.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:40pm ET | $344.51 | 29 | $9,990.65 | $10,087.45 |
$-23.64 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 11:35am ET | $339.61 | 29 | $9,848.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:10pm ET | $338.87 | 29 | $9,827.23 | $10,065.85 |
$-21.60 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:35am ET | $336.89 | 29 | $9,769.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 1:15pm ET | $334.49 | 29 | $9,700.21 | $9,996.11 |
$-69.74 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $328.98 | 30 | $9,869.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.11 | 30 | $9,753.30 | $9,880.01 |
$-116.10 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.6h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 1:40pm ET | $327.37 | 30 | $9,821.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:30am ET | $327.48 | 30 | $9,824.55 | $9,883.46 |
+$3.45 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.8h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:15am ET | $314.18 | 31 | $9,739.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 12:30pm ET | $314.32 | 31 | $9,743.92 | $9,887.80 |
+$4.34 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,887.80
Net Profit/Loss:
$-112.20
Total Return:
-1.12%