IBM Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 39 trades in period
-9.17%
Year to Date Return
$8,636.36
Current Value
31%
Win Rate
$9,507.89
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
4.8/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 4.8
30-Day Momentum
27
+1.9%
30d Return
63%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 33.0
Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+22 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,883
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,507.89
Current Value
$8,636.36
Period P&L
$-871.56
Max Drawdown
-12.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.29
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
12 /
27
Best Trade
+2.01%
Worst Trade
-2.20%
Avg Trade Return
-0.25%
Avg Hold Time
16.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$684,505.63
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-871.56
Net P&L (after fees)
$-871.56
Gross Return
-9.17%
Net Return (after fees)
-9.17%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,507.89 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 2:00pm ET | $296.12 | 32 | $9,475.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 2:40pm ET | $295.72 | 32 | $9,463.04 | $9,495.28 |
$-12.64 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
42m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:50am ET | $299.72 | 31 | $9,291.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 1:10pm ET | $300.24 | 31 | $9,307.29 | $9,511.40 |
+$16.12 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $304.48 | 31 | $9,438.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.39 | 31 | $9,374.09 | $9,446.61 |
$-64.79 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 12:30pm ET | $308.39 | 30 | $9,251.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 1:00pm ET | $307.12 | 30 | $9,213.68 | $9,408.58 |
$-38.02 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $301.86 | 31 | $9,357.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 3:45pm ET | $306.05 | 31 | $9,487.55 | $9,538.47 |
+$129.89 (+1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6.1h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $295.84 | 32 | $9,466.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 12:00pm ET | $294.82 | 32 | $9,434.24 | $9,505.83 |
$-32.64 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 12:40pm ET | $296.90 | 32 | $9,500.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:10pm ET | $296.68 | 32 | $9,493.76 | $9,498.88 |
$-6.96 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 2:10pm ET | $292.48 | 32 | $9,359.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 2:45pm ET | $291.80 | 32 | $9,337.60 | $9,477.12 |
$-21.76 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
36m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:55am ET | $296.40 | 31 | $9,188.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 10:00am ET | $295.70 | 31 | $9,166.70 | $9,455.42 |
$-21.70 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:25am ET | $294.14 | 32 | $9,412.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:50am ET | $293.22 | 32 | $9,383.04 | $9,425.98 |
$-29.44 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
24m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 3:45pm ET | $307.74 | 30 | $9,232.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $301.38 | 30 | $9,041.40 | $9,235.18 |
$-190.80 (-2.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 2:15pm ET | $289.69 | 31 | $8,980.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:35am ET | $283.32 | 31 | $8,782.92 | $9,037.71 |
$-197.47 (-2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.3h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 10:45am ET | $288.28 | 31 | $8,936.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:50am ET | $287.79 | 31 | $8,921.49 | $9,022.52 |
$-15.19 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:35pm ET | $294.48 | 30 | $8,834.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $296.67 | 30 | $8,900.10 | $9,088.37 |
+$65.85 (+0.8%) |
📅 Sim Ended
2.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:25am ET | $258.77 | 35 | $9,056.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $258.01 | 35 | $9,030.35 | $9,061.94 |
$-26.43 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $260.39 | 34 | $8,853.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $256.00 | 34 | $8,704.00 | $8,912.68 |
$-149.26 (-1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 1:35pm ET | $256.89 | 34 | $8,734.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 3:00pm ET | $256.73 | 34 | $8,728.82 | $8,907.24 |
$-5.44 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:45am ET | $235.34 | 37 | $8,707.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 11:40am ET | $231.34 | 37 | $8,559.58 | $8,759.42 |
$-147.82 (-1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 3:15pm ET | $238.29 | 36 | $8,578.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:30pm ET | $238.05 | 36 | $8,569.80 | $8,750.78 |
$-8.64 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:30am ET | $238.55 | 36 | $8,587.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $238.25 | 36 | $8,577.00 | $8,739.98 |
$-10.80 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $239.21 | 36 | $8,611.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 3:10pm ET | $238.01 | 36 | $8,568.36 | $8,696.78 |
$-43.20 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 2:15pm ET | $257.91 | 33 | $8,511.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $255.84 | 33 | $8,442.72 | $8,628.47 |
$-68.31 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 12:35pm ET | $254.39 | 33 | $8,394.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 1:05pm ET | $253.46 | 33 | $8,364.26 | $8,597.86 |
$-30.61 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 1:10pm ET | $248.85 | 34 | $8,460.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $247.25 | 34 | $8,406.50 | $8,543.46 |
$-54.40 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 10:20am ET | $247.73 | 34 | $8,422.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:35am ET | $247.40 | 34 | $8,411.43 | $8,532.16 |
$-11.30 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:00pm ET | $253.94 | 33 | $8,380.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 11:25am ET | $250.76 | 33 | $8,275.08 | $8,427.22 |
$-104.94 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $247.32 | 34 | $8,409.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:50am ET | $248.75 | 34 | $8,457.50 | $8,475.67 |
+$48.45 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 1:50pm ET | $240.74 | 35 | $8,425.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:05am ET | $240.81 | 35 | $8,428.35 | $8,478.12 |
+$2.45 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $236.17 | 35 | $8,265.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 10:50am ET | $237.49 | 35 | $8,312.15 | $8,524.32 |
+$46.20 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $245.21 | 34 | $8,336.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:05am ET | $243.60 | 34 | $8,282.40 | $8,469.75 |
$-54.57 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.6h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 12:35pm ET | $245.98 | 34 | $8,363.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $246.05 | 34 | $8,365.70 | $8,472.13 |
+$2.38 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET | $244.63 | 34 | $8,317.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET | $245.17 | 34 | $8,335.78 | $8,490.32 |
+$18.19 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 12:20pm ET | $237.09 | 35 | $8,298.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:15pm ET | $236.18 | 35 | $8,266.30 | $8,458.47 |
$-31.85 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $233.43 | 36 | $8,403.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 11:15am ET | $232.68 | 36 | $8,376.48 | $8,431.65 |
$-26.82 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:20pm ET | $240.10 | 35 | $8,403.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 3:35pm ET | $244.92 | 35 | $8,572.20 | $8,600.35 |
+$168.70 (+2.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $250.72 | 34 | $8,524.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 11:40am ET | $252.94 | 34 | $8,599.85 | $8,675.72 |
+$75.37 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.8h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 3:05pm ET | $253.28 | 34 | $8,611.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:50am ET | $255.00 | 34 | $8,670.00 | $8,734.21 |
+$58.49 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 1:25pm ET | $228.44 | 38 | $8,680.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 1:50pm ET | $229.56 | 38 | $8,723.28 | $8,776.77 |
+$42.56 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $233.04 | 37 | $8,622.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 3:45pm ET | $229.25 | 37 | $8,482.25 | $8,636.36 |
$-140.41 (-1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.5h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,636.36
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,363.64
Total Return:
-13.64%