LLY Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 40 trades in period
+4.55%
Year to Date Return
$13,413.62
Current Value
38%
Win Rate
$12,830.41
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
8.9/35
Total Return
12.8/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.5/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
29.7/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 29.6
30-Day Momentum
41
+3.7%
30d Return
63%
Win Rate
8
Trades
2.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 50.2
Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+11 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,879
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$12,830.41
Current Value
$13,413.62
Period P&L
$583.19
Max Drawdown
-13.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
15 /
25
Best Trade
+4.33%
Worst Trade
-1.74%
Avg Trade Return
+0.12%
Avg Hold Time
14.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,013,599.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$583.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$583.19
Gross Return
+4.55%
Net Return (after fees)
+4.55%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $12,830.41 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 2:15pm ET | $1,071.38 | 11 | $11,785.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $1,058.83 | 11 | $11,647.16 | $12,692.42 |
$-138.02 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 12:50pm ET | $1,057.67 | 12 | $12,692.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 1:15pm ET | $1,103.46 | 12 | $13,241.46 | $13,241.84 |
+$549.42 (+4.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:40pm ET | $1,086.48 | 12 | $13,037.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $1,083.91 | 12 | $13,006.92 | $13,211.00 |
$-30.84 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 10:50am ET | $1,072.23 | 12 | $12,866.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 12:05pm ET | $1,068.00 | 12 | $12,816.00 | $13,160.30 |
$-50.70 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 2:20pm ET | $1,082.98 | 12 | $12,995.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:05pm ET | $1,079.10 | 12 | $12,949.20 | $13,113.74 |
$-46.56 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
48m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 12:25pm ET | $1,031.44 | 12 | $12,377.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 3:05pm ET | $1,031.03 | 12 | $12,372.36 | $13,108.82 |
$-4.92 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.7h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 10:30am ET | $1,041.70 | 12 | $12,500.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 12:30pm ET | $1,039.08 | 12 | $12,468.90 | $13,077.38 |
$-31.44 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:45pm ET | $1,075.30 | 12 | $12,903.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 11:30am ET | $1,082.40 | 12 | $12,988.80 | $13,162.58 |
+$85.20 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.8h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 2:10pm ET | $1,072.69 | 12 | $12,872.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:05pm ET | $1,069.08 | 12 | $12,828.96 | $13,119.26 |
$-43.32 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
54m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 3:30pm ET | $1,064.01 | 12 | $12,768.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 3:50pm ET | $1,061.50 | 12 | $12,738.00 | $13,089.14 |
$-30.12 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 2:25pm ET | $1,010.54 | 12 | $12,126.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:35am ET | $1,028.52 | 12 | $12,342.24 | $13,304.90 |
+$215.76 (+1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.2h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $1,048.88 | 12 | $12,586.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 1:35pm ET | $1,050.76 | 12 | $12,609.06 | $13,327.40 |
+$22.50 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.9h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 2:55pm ET | $1,007.48 | 13 | $13,097.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 3:20pm ET | $1,001.82 | 13 | $13,023.66 | $13,253.82 |
$-73.58 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
24m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 1:10pm ET | $1,037.76 | 12 | $12,453.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 2:00pm ET | $1,030.36 | 12 | $12,364.32 | $13,164.99 |
$-88.82 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
48m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 2:50pm ET | $1,052.71 | 12 | $12,632.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:05pm ET | $1,050.40 | 12 | $12,604.74 | $13,137.15 |
$-27.84 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $1,047.41 | 12 | $12,568.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $1,047.19 | 12 | $12,566.28 | $13,134.51 |
$-2.64 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 10:15am ET | $1,016.03 | 12 | $12,192.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $1,018.04 | 12 | $12,216.54 | $13,158.69 |
+$24.18 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $1,052.33 | 12 | $12,627.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $1,039.13 | 12 | $12,469.56 | $13,000.29 |
$-158.40 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $1,048.86 | 12 | $12,586.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 10:10am ET | $1,043.68 | 12 | $12,524.16 | $12,938.12 |
$-62.17 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 2:00pm ET | $1,011.38 | 12 | $12,136.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $1,037.38 | 12 | $12,448.56 | $13,250.16 |
+$312.04 (+2.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.9d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 12:05pm ET | $1,006.51 | 13 | $13,084.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 12:30pm ET | $1,000.47 | 13 | $13,006.05 | $13,171.64 |
$-78.52 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 12:55pm ET | $1,004.49 | 13 | $13,058.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 2:05pm ET | $1,002.04 | 13 | $13,026.52 | $13,139.79 |
$-31.85 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 2:30pm ET | $972.23 | 13 | $12,638.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET | $967.49 | 13 | $12,577.37 | $13,078.17 |
$-61.62 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:50am ET | $989.72 | 13 | $12,866.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 1:15pm ET | $995.79 | 13 | $12,945.27 | $13,157.14 |
+$78.97 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.4h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $999.00 | 13 | $12,987.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 11:30am ET | $995.00 | 13 | $12,935.00 | $13,105.14 |
$-52.00 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 2:20pm ET | $978.41 | 13 | $12,719.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:25am ET | $988.99 | 13 | $12,856.87 | $13,242.68 |
+$137.54 (+1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 12:45pm ET | $984.04 | 13 | $12,792.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 2:40pm ET | $984.60 | 13 | $12,799.80 | $13,249.96 |
+$7.28 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 11:00am ET | $917.21 | 14 | $12,840.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 1:10pm ET | $918.18 | 14 | $12,854.52 | $13,263.56 |
+$13.60 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $917.48 | 14 | $12,844.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 1:05pm ET | $901.53 | 14 | $12,621.49 | $13,040.33 |
$-223.23 (-1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 1:00pm ET | $906.24 | 14 | $12,687.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:40pm ET | $901.59 | 14 | $12,622.26 | $12,975.16 |
$-65.17 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 2:20pm ET | $888.73 | 14 | $12,442.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 11:30am ET | $887.61 | 14 | $12,426.54 | $12,959.52 |
$-15.64 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 2:00pm ET | $936.06 | 13 | $12,168.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 3:25pm ET | $934.52 | 13 | $12,148.70 | $12,939.44 |
$-20.08 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 10:55am ET | $916.97 | 14 | $12,837.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $927.17 | 14 | $12,980.38 | $13,082.24 |
+$142.80 (+1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $949.86 | 13 | $12,348.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:30pm ET | $957.51 | 13 | $12,447.63 | $13,181.69 |
+$99.45 (+0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 3:25pm ET | $930.32 | 14 | $13,024.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 1:00pm ET | $934.63 | 14 | $13,084.75 | $13,241.96 |
+$60.27 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 11:05am ET | $910.50 | 14 | $12,747.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $902.86 | 14 | $12,640.04 | $13,135.00 |
$-106.96 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.5h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $923.97 | 14 | $12,935.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:40pm ET | $926.48 | 14 | $12,970.72 | $13,170.07 |
+$35.07 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 2:05pm ET | $881.98 | 14 | $12,347.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 12:15pm ET | $881.26 | 14 | $12,337.64 | $13,159.99 |
$-10.08 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 3:10pm ET | $854.53 | 15 | $12,818.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 3:30pm ET | $851.54 | 15 | $12,773.10 | $13,115.07 |
$-44.92 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 11:40am ET | $962.42 | 13 | $12,511.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 3:15pm ET | $985.39 | 13 | $12,810.01 | $13,413.62 |
+$298.55 (+2.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,413.62
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,413.62
Total Return:
+34.14%