MARA Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 42 trades in period
+3.50%
Year to Date Return
$19,870.80
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$19,199.43
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
33
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
9.9/35
Total Return
16.6/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.8/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
33.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 33.2
30-Day Momentum
8
+0.2%
30d Return
22%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 9.9
Conf: 0.84×
Declining (-25 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,484
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$19,199.43
Current Value
$19,870.80
Period P&L
$671.38
Max Drawdown
-35.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
14 /
28
Best Trade
+9.81%
Worst Trade
-6.50%
Avg Trade Return
+0.15%
Avg Hold Time
11.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,727,379.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$671.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$671.38
Gross Return
+3.50%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.50%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $19,199.43 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $9.21 | 2,084 | $19,193.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 2:10pm ET | $9.95 | 2,084 | $20,731.22 | $20,737.01 |
+$1,537.58 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.5h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $10.22 | 2,029 | $20,733.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.18 | 2,029 | $20,645.08 | $20,648.75 |
$-88.26 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.20 | 2,025 | $20,644.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 2:55pm ET | $10.45 | 2,025 | $21,160.64 | $21,164.51 |
+$515.77 (+2.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.37 | 2,041 | $21,154.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 3:45pm ET | $10.66 | 2,041 | $21,747.06 | $21,756.61 |
+$592.09 (+2.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6.2h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $11.10 | 1,959 | $21,748.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 2:30pm ET | $11.02 | 1,959 | $21,578.39 | $21,586.18 |
$-170.43 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 9:50am ET | $11.14 | 1,937 | $21,578.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 2:20pm ET | $11.32 | 1,937 | $21,919.67 | $21,927.67 |
+$341.49 (+1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.5h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $10.66 | 2,057 | $21,918.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:30am ET | $10.65 | 2,057 | $21,896.77 | $21,906.28 |
$-21.39 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 1:30pm ET | $10.41 | 2,104 | $21,902.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $10.28 | 2,104 | $21,628.70 | $21,632.33 |
$-273.94 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 12:50pm ET | $10.13 | 2,136 | $21,627.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 2:45pm ET | $10.07 | 2,136 | $21,498.84 | $21,504.17 |
$-128.16 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 12:15pm ET | $10.47 | 2,054 | $21,495.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 1:20pm ET | $10.40 | 2,054 | $21,361.81 | $21,370.87 |
$-133.30 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:50am ET | $9.72 | 2,199 | $21,363.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 11:00am ET | $9.66 | 2,199 | $21,231.35 | $21,238.93 |
$-131.94 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
12m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 11:05am ET | $9.33 | 2,276 | $21,235.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $9.23 | 2,276 | $21,007.25 | $21,011.10 |
$-227.83 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $8.84 | 2,378 | $21,009.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.49 | 2,378 | $20,178.52 | $20,179.99 |
$-831.11 (-4.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $7.41 | 2,724 | $20,174.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:45am ET | $8.03 | 2,724 | $21,886.79 | $21,892.57 |
+$1,712.58 (+8.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:40am ET | $8.35 | 2,620 | $21,890.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $8.24 | 2,620 | $21,588.80 | $21,591.27 |
$-301.30 (-1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 2:35pm ET | $7.93 | 2,721 | $21,591.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.46 | 2,721 | $20,298.39 | $20,298.52 |
$-1,292.75 (-6.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 1:30pm ET | $7.52 | 2,699 | $20,296.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 3:25pm ET | $7.59 | 2,699 | $20,485.95 | $20,487.72 |
+$189.20 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 10:05am ET | $7.59 | 2,699 | $20,485.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:05am ET | $8.27 | 2,699 | $22,321.00 | $22,323.31 |
+$1,835.59 (+9.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 2:45pm ET | $7.76 | 2,874 | $22,316.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 2:50pm ET | $7.74 | 2,874 | $22,244.76 | $22,251.46 |
$-71.85 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:35pm ET | $8.69 | 2,559 | $22,250.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:15pm ET | $8.65 | 2,559 | $22,148.14 | $22,149.10 |
$-102.36 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 3:30pm ET | $9.20 | 2,406 | $22,144.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.60 | 2,406 | $20,703.63 | $20,708.63 |
$-1,440.47 (-6.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 1:20pm ET | $8.93 | 2,320 | $20,706.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 2:50pm ET | $8.93 | 2,320 | $20,717.60 | $20,720.23 |
+$11.60 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 1:15pm ET | $8.30 | 2,495 | $20,713.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET | $7.93 | 2,495 | $19,780.11 | $19,786.85 |
$-933.38 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 1:05pm ET | $8.73 | 2,267 | $19,779.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 1:35pm ET | $8.66 | 2,267 | $19,643.55 | $19,650.83 |
$-136.02 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 2:30pm ET | $8.40 | 2,337 | $19,642.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 10:30am ET | $8.43 | 2,337 | $19,705.58 | $19,713.93 |
+$63.10 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.77 | 2,018 | $19,705.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:50am ET | $9.37 | 2,018 | $18,910.68 | $18,918.84 |
$-795.09 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $9.31 | 2,032 | $18,918.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $9.27 | 2,032 | $18,826.48 | $18,826.79 |
$-92.05 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.6h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 11:10am ET | $8.96 | 2,101 | $18,824.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.95 | 2,101 | $18,814.45 | $18,816.28 |
$-10.51 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.4h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.76 | 2,149 | $18,814.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.84 | 2,149 | $18,986.42 | $18,988.20 |
+$171.92 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.9h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.57 | 2,215 | $18,982.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:05pm ET | $8.22 | 2,215 | $18,207.30 | $18,212.95 |
$-775.25 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.6h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 2:30pm ET | $7.80 | 2,336 | $18,209.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:35am ET | $7.90 | 2,336 | $18,460.24 | $18,464.07 |
+$251.12 (+1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:55am ET | $8.23 | 2,243 | $18,459.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 12:15pm ET | $8.16 | 2,243 | $18,305.12 | $18,309.30 |
$-154.77 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 12:50pm ET | $8.18 | 2,239 | $18,307.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.86 | 2,239 | $19,837.54 | $19,839.66 |
+$1,530.36 (+8.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $8.56 | 2,317 | $19,833.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.40 | 2,317 | $21,779.80 | $21,785.94 |
+$1,946.28 (+9.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $9.57 | 2,275 | $21,783.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $9.48 | 2,275 | $21,567.00 | $21,569.81 |
$-216.13 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:00pm ET | $9.58 | 2,251 | $21,564.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:05pm ET | $9.52 | 2,251 | $21,440.77 | $21,445.78 |
$-124.03 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $10.63 | 2,018 | $21,441.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 11:35am ET | $10.16 | 2,018 | $20,512.97 | $20,517.50 |
$-928.28 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 11:30am ET | $11.42 | 1,796 | $20,510.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:05pm ET | $11.27 | 1,796 | $20,249.90 | $20,257.08 |
$-260.42 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 12:00pm ET | $11.60 | 1,745 | $20,250.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 3:35pm ET | $11.64 | 1,745 | $20,311.63 | $20,317.98 |
+$60.90 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.6h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 11:30am ET | $10.93 | 1,859 | $20,309.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $10.73 | 1,859 | $19,937.78 | $19,946.18 |
$-371.80 (-1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.1h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 1:50pm ET | $12.02 | 1,659 | $19,941.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:35pm ET | $12.00 | 1,659 | $19,899.87 | $19,905.04 |
$-41.14 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 1:15pm ET | $11.63 | 1,712 | $19,902.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $11.60 | 1,712 | $19,867.76 | $19,870.80 |
$-34.24 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$19,870.80
Net Profit/Loss:
+$9,870.80
Total Return:
+98.71%