MRNA Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 45 trades in period
+22.18%
Year to Date Return
$5,059.67
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$4,141.07
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality
3.4/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 3.4
30-Day Momentum
60
+10.5%
30d Return
56%
Win Rate
9
Trades
4.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 71.5
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+57 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,442
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$4,141.07
Current Value
$5,059.67
Period P&L
$918.60
Max Drawdown
-67.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
45
Winners / Losers
18 /
27
Best Trade
+8.95%
Worst Trade
-4.98%
Avg Trade Return
+0.48%
Avg Hold Time
12.2h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$421,801.45
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$918.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$918.60
Gross Return
+22.18%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.18%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 45 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $4,141.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 2:30pm ET | $30.75 | 134 | $4,119.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 11:15am ET | $31.51 | 134 | $4,221.67 | $4,242.91 |
+$101.84 (+2.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 2:55pm ET | $35.32 | 120 | $4,237.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $35.00 | 120 | $4,200.00 | $4,205.11 |
$-37.80 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.7h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $34.29 | 122 | $4,183.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 1:20pm ET | $34.87 | 122 | $4,254.14 | $4,275.87 |
+$70.76 (+1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 2:50pm ET | $33.31 | 128 | $4,263.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $36.29 | 128 | $4,645.12 | $4,657.31 |
+$381.44 (+8.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.9h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 1:20pm ET | $40.54 | 114 | $4,620.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $39.99 | 114 | $4,558.86 | $4,595.18 |
$-62.13 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $40.99 | 112 | $4,590.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 12:50pm ET | $41.45 | 112 | $4,642.40 | $4,646.70 |
+$51.52 (+1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 3:25pm ET | $42.31 | 109 | $4,611.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:50am ET | $45.88 | 109 | $5,000.38 | $5,035.28 |
+$388.59 (+8.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.4h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 2:05pm ET | $53.87 | 93 | $5,010.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:50pm ET | $52.85 | 93 | $4,915.05 | $4,940.23 |
$-95.05 (-1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
48m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 3:40pm ET | $48.73 | 101 | $4,921.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $47.17 | 101 | $4,764.17 | $4,783.18 |
$-157.06 (-3.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.7d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:45am ET | $44.53 | 107 | $4,764.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 2:15pm ET | $44.62 | 107 | $4,774.34 | $4,792.81 |
+$9.63 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 2:20pm ET | $46.74 | 102 | $4,767.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 3:20pm ET | $46.52 | 102 | $4,744.53 | $4,769.86 |
$-22.95 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 11:00am ET | $43.36 | 110 | $4,769.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 12:35pm ET | $43.27 | 110 | $4,759.79 | $4,760.05 |
$-9.81 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $42.38 | 112 | $4,747.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $41.89 | 112 | $4,691.68 | $4,704.61 |
$-55.44 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $42.64 | 110 | $4,690.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 11:40am ET | $42.25 | 110 | $4,647.50 | $4,661.49 |
$-43.12 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 1:35pm ET | $40.32 | 115 | $4,636.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $40.25 | 115 | $4,628.75 | $4,653.44 |
$-8.05 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
42m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $42.86 | 108 | $4,628.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 3:15pm ET | $43.13 | 108 | $4,658.58 | $4,683.14 |
+$29.70 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 10:25am ET | $46.57 | 100 | $4,657.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 11:30am ET | $46.42 | 100 | $4,642.00 | $4,668.14 |
$-15.00 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $51.04 | 91 | $4,644.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 2:35pm ET | $50.75 | 91 | $4,618.25 | $4,641.75 |
$-26.39 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 11:35am ET | $52.27 | 88 | $4,599.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 2:50pm ET | $52.37 | 88 | $4,608.56 | $4,650.55 |
+$8.80 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 12:50pm ET | $51.67 | 90 | $4,649.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 12:55pm ET | $51.52 | 90 | $4,636.80 | $4,637.50 |
$-13.05 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 3:20pm ET | $53.63 | 86 | $4,612.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 3:50pm ET | $53.10 | 86 | $4,566.17 | $4,591.06 |
$-46.44 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.94 | 88 | $4,571.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 12:55pm ET | $56.14 | 88 | $4,940.32 | $4,960.31 |
+$369.25 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.4h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $53.57 | 92 | $4,928.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.90 | 92 | $4,682.80 | $4,714.67 |
$-245.64 (-5.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $53.47 | 88 | $4,705.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 2:00pm ET | $53.24 | 88 | $4,685.56 | $4,694.76 |
$-19.91 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.30 | 84 | $4,645.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 12:00pm ET | $56.34 | 84 | $4,732.25 | $4,781.81 |
+$87.05 (+1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.5h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 12:35pm ET | $54.33 | 88 | $4,781.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 3:05pm ET | $54.14 | 88 | $4,764.32 | $4,765.08 |
$-16.72 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 3:30pm ET | $52.47 | 90 | $4,722.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 11:40am ET | $52.50 | 90 | $4,725.00 | $4,767.78 |
+$2.70 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:05pm ET | $55.18 | 86 | $4,745.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:00pm ET | $55.04 | 86 | $4,733.44 | $4,755.74 |
$-12.04 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:50pm ET | $52.71 | 90 | $4,743.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.31 | 90 | $4,617.90 | $4,629.75 |
$-126.00 (-2.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.84 | 89 | $4,613.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $51.41 | 89 | $4,575.49 | $4,591.48 |
$-38.27 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 3:05pm ET | $51.83 | 88 | $4,560.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 3:30pm ET | $51.62 | 88 | $4,542.12 | $4,573.00 |
$-18.48 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.19 | 85 | $4,521.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 11:35am ET | $53.67 | 85 | $4,561.53 | $4,613.38 |
+$40.38 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 1:40pm ET | $50.99 | 90 | $4,588.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:05pm ET | $50.66 | 90 | $4,559.40 | $4,584.13 |
$-29.25 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:50pm ET | $49.25 | 93 | $4,580.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:15am ET | $50.09 | 93 | $4,658.37 | $4,662.25 |
+$78.12 (+1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.4h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $50.24 | 92 | $4,621.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 11:15am ET | $49.53 | 92 | $4,556.76 | $4,597.31 |
$-64.94 (-1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 1:45pm ET | $48.83 | 94 | $4,590.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $51.42 | 94 | $4,833.48 | $4,840.78 |
+$243.47 (+5.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 10:30am ET | $51.51 | 93 | $4,790.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 1:20pm ET | $51.95 | 93 | $4,831.35 | $4,881.50 |
+$40.72 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 2:30pm ET | $51.51 | 94 | $4,842.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 2:40pm ET | $51.33 | 94 | $4,824.55 | $4,863.64 |
$-17.86 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:05pm ET | $52.75 | 92 | $4,853.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 11:10am ET | $53.40 | 92 | $4,912.34 | $4,922.98 |
+$59.34 (+1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.1h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 11:10am ET | $53.85 | 91 | $4,900.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 12:55pm ET | $53.60 | 91 | $4,878.05 | $4,900.69 |
$-22.29 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 2:55pm ET | $54.67 | 89 | $4,865.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 3:30pm ET | $54.20 | 89 | $4,823.80 | $4,858.86 |
$-41.83 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 10:20am ET | $54.67 | 88 | $4,810.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:25pm ET | $54.76 | 88 | $4,818.88 | $4,866.78 |
+$7.92 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.1h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 2:00pm ET | $47.19 | 103 | $4,860.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 2:30pm ET | $47.09 | 103 | $4,850.27 | $4,856.99 |
$-9.79 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:45pm ET | $45.18 | 107 | $4,834.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $47.26 | 107 | $5,057.13 | $5,079.84 |
+$222.85 (+4.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 2:25pm ET | $46.21 | 109 | $5,036.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $46.02 | 109 | $5,016.18 | $5,059.67 |
$-20.17 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,059.67
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,940.33
Total Return:
-49.40%