MS Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 39 trades in period
+1.22%
Year to Date Return
$11,511.83
Current Value
41%
Win Rate
$11,372.92
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
39 neutral
20d Trend
-6.5%
5d Trend
-4.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.4%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
56%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
21
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.4/35
Total Return
10.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
20.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 20.6
30-Day Momentum
19
+0.4%
30d Return
60%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 21.6
Conf: 0.87×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,314
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$11,372.92
Current Value
$11,511.83
Period P&L
$138.99
Max Drawdown
-12.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
39
Winners / Losers
16 /
23
Best Trade
+4.51%
Worst Trade
-1.86%
Avg Trade Return
+0.04%
Avg Hold Time
14.8h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$858,709.76
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$138.99
Net P&L (after fees)
$138.99
Gross Return
+1.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+1.22%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 39 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $11,372.92 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 10:15am ET | $187.32 | 60 | $11,238.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:30am ET | $186.76 | 60 | $11,205.60 | $11,339.54 |
$-33.30 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 12:10pm ET | $185.90 | 60 | $11,154.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 1:00pm ET | $185.47 | 60 | $11,128.20 | $11,313.74 |
$-25.80 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
48m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.12 | 60 | $11,167.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 12:50pm ET | $186.09 | 60 | $11,165.40 | $11,311.94 |
$-1.80 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $182.77 | 61 | $11,148.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $181.03 | 61 | $11,042.83 | $11,205.80 |
$-106.14 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.6h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 9:40am ET | $191.99 | 58 | $11,135.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:45am ET | $191.00 | 58 | $11,078.00 | $11,148.38 |
$-57.42 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $182.91 | 60 | $10,974.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:35am ET | $182.96 | 60 | $10,977.60 | $11,151.38 |
+$3.00 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 2:05pm ET | $179.16 | 62 | $11,107.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $178.70 | 62 | $11,079.40 | $11,122.86 |
$-28.52 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $182.44 | 60 | $10,946.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 11:50am ET | $181.85 | 60 | $10,910.70 | $11,087.16 |
$-35.70 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 12:10pm ET | $181.80 | 60 | $10,907.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 12:20pm ET | $181.54 | 60 | $10,892.40 | $11,071.86 |
$-15.30 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
12m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 1:50pm ET | $180.79 | 61 | $11,028.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 11:10am ET | $181.77 | 61 | $11,087.97 | $11,131.64 |
+$59.78 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $186.75 | 59 | $11,018.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 10:15am ET | $183.29 | 59 | $10,814.11 | $10,927.50 |
$-204.14 (-1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
48m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $182.31 | 59 | $10,756.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $181.02 | 59 | $10,680.18 | $10,851.39 |
$-76.11 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:50am ET | $176.46 | 61 | $10,764.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 1:20pm ET | $175.99 | 61 | $10,735.09 | $10,822.42 |
$-28.98 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:35pm ET | $180.63 | 59 | $10,657.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $179.98 | 59 | $10,618.82 | $10,783.77 |
$-38.64 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:45am ET | $184.15 | 58 | $10,680.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 10:50am ET | $182.47 | 58 | $10,583.26 | $10,686.33 |
$-97.44 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 12:40pm ET | $176.22 | 60 | $10,573.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:40pm ET | $175.79 | 60 | $10,547.70 | $10,660.83 |
$-25.50 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:05am ET | $171.76 | 62 | $10,649.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 12:35pm ET | $171.85 | 62 | $10,655.01 | $10,666.72 |
+$5.89 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 2:20pm ET | $173.62 | 61 | $10,590.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $172.68 | 61 | $10,533.48 | $10,609.38 |
$-57.34 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $170.53 | 62 | $10,572.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:20pm ET | $173.37 | 62 | $10,748.94 | $10,785.46 |
+$176.08 (+1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 3:15pm ET | $166.42 | 64 | $10,650.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $163.33 | 64 | $10,453.12 | $10,587.70 |
$-197.76 (-1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:35am ET | $163.32 | 64 | $10,452.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $165.98 | 64 | $10,622.72 | $10,757.94 |
+$170.24 (+1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $162.33 | 66 | $10,713.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $159.51 | 66 | $10,527.66 | $10,571.82 |
$-186.12 (-1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 3:25pm ET | $154.07 | 68 | $10,476.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:25am ET | $155.31 | 68 | $10,561.08 | $10,656.14 |
+$84.32 (+0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 2:25pm ET | $155.82 | 68 | $10,596.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 12:00pm ET | $158.51 | 68 | $10,778.68 | $10,838.77 |
+$182.63 (+1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.6h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 11:25am ET | $158.48 | 68 | $10,776.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 2:30pm ET | $161.39 | 68 | $10,974.52 | $11,036.99 |
+$198.22 (+1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $167.26 | 65 | $10,871.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:30pm ET | $165.72 | 65 | $10,771.80 | $10,936.89 |
$-100.10 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 2:30pm ET | $163.82 | 66 | $10,812.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:25pm ET | $163.61 | 66 | $10,798.26 | $10,923.03 |
$-13.86 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $159.76 | 68 | $10,863.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 1:00pm ET | $166.96 | 68 | $11,353.28 | $11,412.63 |
+$489.60 (+4.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 2:45pm ET | $165.62 | 68 | $11,261.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 11:20am ET | $166.33 | 68 | $11,310.44 | $11,461.25 |
+$48.62 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 11:55am ET | $167.25 | 68 | $11,373.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $167.86 | 68 | $11,414.47 | $11,502.72 |
+$41.47 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 3:15pm ET | $176.09 | 65 | $11,445.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $175.31 | 65 | $11,395.15 | $11,452.02 |
$-50.70 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 1:20pm ET | $176.60 | 64 | $11,302.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:55pm ET | $177.66 | 64 | $11,370.24 | $11,519.86 |
+$67.84 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $188.49 | 61 | $11,497.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 12:15pm ET | $190.95 | 61 | $11,647.95 | $11,669.92 |
+$150.06 (+1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $190.17 | 61 | $11,600.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:30pm ET | $190.21 | 61 | $11,602.93 | $11,672.48 |
+$2.56 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $189.73 | 61 | $11,573.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 1:40pm ET | $191.49 | 61 | $11,680.89 | $11,779.84 |
+$107.36 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 11:45am ET | $188.54 | 62 | $11,689.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 12:40pm ET | $187.98 | 62 | $11,654.76 | $11,745.12 |
$-34.72 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:10pm ET | $189.69 | 61 | $11,571.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $186.24 | 61 | $11,360.64 | $11,534.67 |
$-210.45 (-1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 1:55pm ET | $191.37 | 60 | $11,482.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 2:35pm ET | $188.00 | 60 | $11,280.00 | $11,332.47 |
$-202.20 (-1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $189.86 | 59 | $11,201.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 12:50pm ET | $192.90 | 59 | $11,381.10 | $11,511.83 |
+$179.36 (+1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.5h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$11,511.83
Net Profit/Loss:
+$1,511.83
Total Return:
+15.12%