MSFT Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
+3.84%
Year to Date Return
$10,248.52
Current Value
44%
Win Rate
$9,869.30
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
10
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.5/35
Total Return
4.5/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality
10.1/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 10.1
30-Day Momentum
63
+8.8%
30d Return
78%
Win Rate
9
Trades
5.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 74.8
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+53 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,493
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,869.30
Current Value
$10,248.52
Period P&L
$379.23
Max Drawdown
-19.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
18 /
23
Best Trade
+4.72%
Worst Trade
-2.70%
Avg Trade Return
+0.10%
Avg Hold Time
15.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$786,842.44
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$379.23
Net P&L (after fees)
$379.23
Gross Return
+3.84%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.84%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,869.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 2:35pm ET | $472.68 | 20 | $9,453.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 3:10pm ET | $472.11 | 20 | $9,442.10 | $9,857.78 |
$-11.50 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
36m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 12:20pm ET | $472.87 | 20 | $9,457.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:00pm ET | $486.79 | 20 | $9,735.80 | $10,136.18 |
+$278.40 (+2.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:20pm ET | $477.60 | 21 | $10,029.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $474.47 | 21 | $9,963.87 | $10,070.45 |
$-65.73 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.2h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 11:15am ET | $479.55 | 20 | $9,590.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 11:25am ET | $478.79 | 20 | $9,575.71 | $10,055.21 |
$-15.24 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
12m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 3:20pm ET | $468.23 | 21 | $9,832.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $464.21 | 21 | $9,748.31 | $9,970.68 |
$-84.53 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 10:20am ET | $459.60 | 21 | $9,651.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $457.65 | 21 | $9,610.55 | $9,929.73 |
$-40.95 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
24m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 11:35am ET | $456.75 | 21 | $9,591.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 11:50am ET | $454.23 | 21 | $9,538.73 | $9,876.73 |
$-53.01 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:40pm ET | $445.08 | 22 | $9,791.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 2:50pm ET | $450.49 | 22 | $9,910.78 | $9,995.75 |
+$119.02 (+1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 10:00am ET | $469.46 | 21 | $9,858.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 2:00pm ET | $472.71 | 21 | $9,926.91 | $10,064.10 |
+$68.35 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 1:35pm ET | $479.66 | 20 | $9,593.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 3:25pm ET | $479.79 | 20 | $9,595.80 | $10,066.70 |
+$2.60 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:40pm ET | $432.52 | 23 | $9,947.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 1:30pm ET | $429.84 | 23 | $9,886.32 | $10,005.06 |
$-61.64 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
48m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 3:35pm ET | $424.54 | 23 | $9,764.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 3:45pm ET | $423.41 | 23 | $9,738.44 | $9,979.09 |
$-25.98 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
12m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $411.29 | 24 | $9,870.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:15pm ET | $413.45 | 24 | $9,922.80 | $10,030.93 |
+$51.84 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $399.14 | 25 | $9,978.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $395.14 | 25 | $9,878.50 | $9,930.89 |
$-100.03 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:45pm ET | $414.33 | 23 | $9,529.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $414.25 | 23 | $9,527.75 | $9,929.08 |
$-1.81 (-0.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
12m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 1:30pm ET | $404.13 | 24 | $9,699.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 3:20pm ET | $404.14 | 24 | $9,699.36 | $9,929.32 |
+$0.24 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET | $399.86 | 24 | $9,596.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 1:40pm ET | $401.02 | 24 | $9,624.48 | $9,957.16 |
+$27.84 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 3:50pm ET | $398.08 | 25 | $9,952.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $396.60 | 25 | $9,915.00 | $9,920.16 |
$-37.00 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.7h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:00pm ET | $387.63 | 25 | $9,690.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $386.73 | 25 | $9,668.37 | $9,897.78 |
$-22.38 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 1:45pm ET | $401.43 | 24 | $9,634.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $390.58 | 24 | $9,373.92 | $9,637.38 |
$-260.40 (-2.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 2:20pm ET | $400.45 | 24 | $9,610.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:25pm ET | $403.40 | 24 | $9,681.60 | $9,708.18 |
+$70.80 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 11:55am ET | $408.46 | 23 | $9,394.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $408.52 | 23 | $9,396.02 | $9,709.62 |
+$1.44 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $408.62 | 23 | $9,398.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $406.86 | 23 | $9,357.78 | $9,669.14 |
$-40.48 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 1:00pm ET | $403.88 | 23 | $9,289.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 1:40pm ET | $402.95 | 23 | $9,267.96 | $9,647.86 |
$-21.28 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 3:30pm ET | $403.89 | 23 | $9,289.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:55am ET | $395.20 | 23 | $9,089.60 | $9,447.99 |
$-199.87 (-2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $399.90 | 23 | $9,197.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 1:50pm ET | $399.14 | 23 | $9,180.22 | $9,430.51 |
$-17.48 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:00pm ET | $394.77 | 23 | $9,079.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 2:15pm ET | $393.61 | 23 | $9,053.03 | $9,403.89 |
$-26.62 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $385.15 | 24 | $9,243.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:50am ET | $384.48 | 24 | $9,227.52 | $9,387.93 |
$-15.96 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 2:05pm ET | $373.45 | 25 | $9,336.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 3:45pm ET | $373.41 | 25 | $9,335.25 | $9,386.93 |
$-1.00 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 3:50pm ET | $371.15 | 25 | $9,278.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $369.77 | 25 | $9,244.25 | $9,352.43 |
$-34.50 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $359.95 | 25 | $8,998.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 12:30pm ET | $361.95 | 25 | $9,048.63 | $9,402.30 |
+$49.87 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $370.99 | 25 | $9,274.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $371.60 | 25 | $9,289.88 | $9,417.43 |
+$15.13 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 12:05pm ET | $369.82 | 25 | $9,245.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $370.25 | 25 | $9,256.25 | $9,428.18 |
+$10.75 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 3:15pm ET | $371.60 | 25 | $9,290.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:55am ET | $371.88 | 25 | $9,297.07 | $9,435.25 |
+$7.07 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:40pm ET | $392.63 | 24 | $9,423.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 3:55pm ET | $411.14 | 24 | $9,867.48 | $9,879.61 |
+$444.36 (+4.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 12:30pm ET | $419.00 | 23 | $9,637.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $424.44 | 23 | $9,762.12 | $10,004.73 |
+$125.12 (+1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 2:55pm ET | $431.80 | 23 | $9,931.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 3:15pm ET | $431.33 | 23 | $9,920.70 | $9,994.15 |
$-10.58 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 3:20pm ET | $416.06 | 24 | $9,985.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 12:25pm ET | $418.70 | 24 | $10,048.68 | $10,057.39 |
+$63.24 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.1h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:55am ET | $426.01 | 23 | $9,798.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 2:05pm ET | $427.08 | 23 | $9,822.95 | $10,082.11 |
+$24.72 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.2h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 1:55pm ET | $402.42 | 25 | $10,060.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 12:45pm ET | $413.61 | 25 | $10,340.13 | $10,361.73 |
+$279.62 (+2.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $414.73 | 24 | $9,953.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 2:40pm ET | $410.01 | 24 | $9,840.24 | $10,248.52 |
$-113.21 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.1h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,248.52
Net Profit/Loss:
+$248.52
Total Return:
+2.49%