NIO Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 42 trades in period
-15.96%
Year to Date Return
$5,492.94
Current Value
21%
Win Rate
$6,536.31
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
2
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
2.1/10
Raw Quality
2.1/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 2.1
30-Day Momentum
9
-5.3%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+7 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,307
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$6,536.31
Current Value
$5,492.94
Period P&L
$-1,043.29
Max Drawdown
-42.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
9 /
33
Best Trade
+8.21%
Worst Trade
-4.64%
Avg Trade Return
-0.39%
Avg Hold Time
10.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$491,697.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,043.29
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,043.29
Gross Return
-15.96%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.96%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $6,536.31 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $4.99 | 1,311 | $6,535.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $4.90 | 1,311 | $6,423.90 | $6,424.77 |
$-111.44 (-1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 1:35pm ET | $4.82 | 1,332 | $6,420.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 1:45pm ET | $4.81 | 1,332 | $6,400.26 | $6,404.79 |
$-19.98 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
12m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $4.69 | 1,367 | $6,404.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 1:05pm ET | $4.67 | 1,367 | $6,377.06 | $6,377.45 |
$-27.34 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 2:00pm ET | $4.89 | 1,305 | $6,374.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 3:55pm ET | $4.85 | 1,305 | $6,329.25 | $6,331.77 |
$-45.68 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $4.58 | 1,383 | $6,327.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 3:15pm ET | $4.56 | 1,383 | $6,306.48 | $6,311.03 |
$-20.75 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
48m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 11:00am ET | $4.65 | 1,357 | $6,310.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 1:10pm ET | $4.65 | 1,357 | $6,310.05 | $6,311.03 |
$0.00 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:35am ET | $4.59 | 1,376 | $6,308.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:50am ET | $4.56 | 1,376 | $6,280.75 | $6,282.82 |
$-28.21 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 1:05pm ET | $4.68 | 1,342 | $6,280.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 1:55pm ET | $4.67 | 1,342 | $6,260.43 | $6,262.69 |
$-20.13 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
48m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.65 | 1,348 | $6,261.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:45pm ET | $4.64 | 1,348 | $6,247.98 | $6,249.21 |
$-13.48 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 2:50pm ET | $4.64 | 1,346 | $6,246.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 3:50pm ET | $4.61 | 1,346 | $6,205.06 | $6,207.48 |
$-41.73 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $4.94 | 1,257 | $6,206.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $4.81 | 1,257 | $6,039.89 | $6,041.18 |
$-166.30 (-2.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
42m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 12:30pm ET | $4.51 | 1,338 | $6,041.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 2:00pm ET | $4.51 | 1,338 | $6,027.69 | $6,027.80 |
$-13.38 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 2:55pm ET | $4.49 | 1,341 | $6,027.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $4.47 | 1,341 | $5,987.57 | $5,987.57 |
$-40.23 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.12 | 1,169 | $5,982.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 11:55am ET | $5.01 | 1,169 | $5,862.53 | $5,867.17 |
$-120.41 (-2.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $5.00 | 1,173 | $5,865.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 11:55am ET | $4.95 | 1,173 | $5,800.49 | $5,802.54 |
$-64.63 (-1.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 11:15am ET | $4.99 | 1,162 | $5,798.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 3:10pm ET | $5.02 | 1,162 | $5,833.24 | $5,837.40 |
+$34.86 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $4.95 | 1,179 | $5,835.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 12:25pm ET | $4.97 | 1,179 | $5,861.28 | $5,862.75 |
+$25.35 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 3:10pm ET | $4.86 | 1,206 | $5,861.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 12:25pm ET | $4.93 | 1,206 | $5,945.58 | $5,947.17 |
+$84.42 (+1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:15pm ET | $5.32 | 1,118 | $5,942.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 2:10pm ET | $5.30 | 1,118 | $5,930.99 | $5,935.99 |
$-11.18 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 11:30am ET | $5.22 | 1,137 | $5,932.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 1:20pm ET | $5.01 | 1,137 | $5,690.69 | $5,693.92 |
$-242.07 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 1:10pm ET | $4.71 | 1,208 | $5,689.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 3:00pm ET | $4.69 | 1,208 | $5,665.52 | $5,669.76 |
$-24.16 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 3:45pm ET | $4.89 | 1,158 | $5,668.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 10:30am ET | $4.67 | 1,158 | $5,405.31 | $5,406.66 |
$-263.10 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 1:10pm ET | $4.78 | 1,129 | $5,402.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:45pm ET | $4.78 | 1,129 | $5,396.62 | $5,401.02 |
$-5.64 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 2:30pm ET | $5.52 | 978 | $5,398.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET | $5.47 | 978 | $5,354.55 | $5,357.30 |
$-43.72 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.74 | 934 | $5,356.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 2:25pm ET | $5.84 | 934 | $5,459.23 | $5,460.04 |
+$102.74 (+1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.9h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 3:00pm ET | $6.09 | 896 | $5,454.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:20pm ET | $6.07 | 896 | $5,434.24 | $5,439.43 |
$-20.61 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 11:00am ET | $5.96 | 912 | $5,433.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 11:10am ET | $5.91 | 912 | $5,392.56 | $5,398.03 |
$-41.40 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 1:30pm ET | $5.85 | 922 | $5,394.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 2:45pm ET | $5.84 | 922 | $5,388.17 | $5,391.30 |
$-6.73 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.63 | 958 | $5,388.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 12:00pm ET | $5.83 | 958 | $5,583.61 | $5,586.16 |
+$194.86 (+3.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:30pm ET | $5.84 | 957 | $5,584.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 2:20pm ET | $5.64 | 957 | $5,402.26 | $5,404.33 |
$-181.83 (-3.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $5.54 | 975 | $5,401.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 11:15am ET | $5.99 | 975 | $5,845.12 | $5,847.95 |
+$443.62 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $6.19 | 945 | $5,847.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 12:20pm ET | $6.14 | 945 | $5,802.30 | $5,802.59 |
$-45.36 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 3:35pm ET | $6.26 | 926 | $5,801.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 1:35pm ET | $6.47 | 926 | $5,986.59 | $5,987.79 |
+$185.20 (+3.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 3:50pm ET | $6.45 | 928 | $5,987.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 12:05pm ET | $6.47 | 928 | $6,008.80 | $6,009.23 |
+$21.44 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 11:30am ET | $6.51 | 923 | $6,004.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 3:25pm ET | $6.45 | 923 | $5,948.74 | $5,953.85 |
$-55.38 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.9h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 2:35pm ET | $6.87 | 866 | $5,949.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $6.59 | 866 | $5,702.61 | $5,707.04 |
$-246.81 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 2:10pm ET | $6.28 | 909 | $5,703.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 2:50pm ET | $6.25 | 909 | $5,681.25 | $5,684.31 |
$-22.73 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $6.34 | 897 | $5,683.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $6.24 | 897 | $5,597.55 | $5,598.74 |
$-85.57 (-1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.9h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 1:50pm ET | $6.45 | 868 | $5,598.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 3:40pm ET | $6.43 | 868 | $5,585.58 | $5,585.72 |
$-13.02 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 12:55pm ET | $5.95 | 939 | $5,582.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:05pm ET | $5.91 | 939 | $5,544.80 | $5,548.16 |
$-37.56 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $6.11 | 907 | $5,546.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 3:45pm ET | $6.09 | 907 | $5,528.16 | $5,530.02 |
$-18.14 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2026 10:35am ET | $5.92 | 934 | $5,529.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 11:00am ET | $5.88 | 934 | $5,492.48 | $5,492.94 |
$-37.08 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$5,492.94
Net Profit/Loss:
$-4,507.06
Total Return:
-45.07%