RIOT Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
+8.60%
Year to Date Return
$16,274.43
Current Value
27%
Win Rate
$14,985.50
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
6.4/35
Total Return
15.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.7/15
Consistency
6.6/10
Raw Quality
29.7/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 29.6
30-Day Momentum
51
+19.1%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
2.3×
Profit Factor
Quality: 62.6
Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,972
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$14,985.50
Current Value
$16,274.43
Period P&L
$1,288.88
Max Drawdown
-34.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.07
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
11 /
30
Best Trade
+9.27%
Worst Trade
-5.50%
Avg Trade Return
+0.27%
Avg Hold Time
15.7h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,308,803.13
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,288.88
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,288.88
Gross Return
+8.60%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.60%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $14,985.50 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:45am ET | $13.20 | 1,135 | $14,982.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 2:05pm ET | $14.30 | 1,135 | $16,230.50 | $16,234.04 |
+$1,248.50 (+8.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.3h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 1:30pm ET | $14.67 | 1,106 | $16,219.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 10:15am ET | $14.74 | 1,106 | $16,296.91 | $16,311.46 |
+$77.42 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.8h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 10:20am ET | $15.31 | 1,065 | $16,305.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 1:35pm ET | $15.27 | 1,065 | $16,257.23 | $16,263.54 |
$-47.92 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 1:45pm ET | $15.68 | 1,037 | $16,260.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 1:55pm ET | $15.55 | 1,037 | $16,120.17 | $16,122.81 |
$-140.72 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
12m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 2:45pm ET | $16.40 | 983 | $16,121.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 11:30am ET | $17.77 | 983 | $17,463.00 | $17,464.61 |
+$1,341.80 (+8.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 2:25pm ET | $17.17 | 1,017 | $17,456.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 2:30pm ET | $17.06 | 1,017 | $17,344.94 | $17,352.74 |
$-111.87 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:35pm ET | $18.80 | 923 | $17,352.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $18.03 | 923 | $16,641.69 | $16,642.31 |
$-710.43 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 10:05am ET | $18.59 | 895 | $16,638.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:30am ET | $18.17 | 895 | $16,262.15 | $16,266.41 |
$-375.90 (-2.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
24m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 12:40pm ET | $17.14 | 949 | $16,261.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 1:50pm ET | $17.01 | 949 | $16,142.49 | $16,147.78 |
$-118.63 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 12:55pm ET | $16.79 | 961 | $16,139.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 2:20pm ET | $16.64 | 961 | $15,986.24 | $15,994.69 |
$-153.09 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 12:15pm ET | $17.75 | 901 | $15,988.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 12:20pm ET | $17.66 | 901 | $15,911.66 | $15,918.11 |
$-76.59 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 2:10pm ET | $16.93 | 940 | $15,914.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 2:45pm ET | $16.92 | 940 | $15,900.10 | $15,904.01 |
$-14.10 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
36m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 2:50pm ET | $15.66 | 1,015 | $15,889.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 2:55pm ET | $15.53 | 1,015 | $15,758.89 | $15,773.07 |
$-130.94 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.86 | 994 | $15,764.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:35am ET | $15.70 | 994 | $15,605.80 | $15,614.03 |
$-159.04 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 2:35pm ET | $13.85 | 1,127 | $15,603.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:50am ET | $13.80 | 1,127 | $15,546.97 | $15,557.68 |
$-56.35 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.3h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.46 | 1,076 | $15,554.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $14.98 | 1,076 | $16,123.86 | $16,127.00 |
+$569.31 (+3.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
5.9h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:50am ET | $14.97 | 1,077 | $16,117.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:55am ET | $14.84 | 1,077 | $15,977.30 | $15,986.99 |
$-140.01 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $14.56 | 1,097 | $15,973.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 11:45am ET | $15.76 | 1,097 | $17,283.24 | $17,297.14 |
+$1,310.15 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:45am ET | $15.59 | 1,109 | $17,283.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 1:05pm ET | $15.53 | 1,109 | $17,222.77 | $17,236.14 |
$-61.00 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 3:40pm ET | $15.81 | 1,090 | $17,232.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.17 | 1,090 | $16,535.30 | $16,538.54 |
$-697.60 (-4.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.7d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.04 | 970 | $16,528.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 3:30pm ET | $17.07 | 970 | $16,555.96 | $16,565.70 |
+$27.16 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 3:15pm ET | $16.07 | 1,030 | $16,552.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 12:15pm ET | $16.48 | 1,030 | $16,969.25 | $16,982.85 |
+$417.15 (+2.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 12:45pm ET | $15.60 | 1,088 | $16,967.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 2:10pm ET | $15.58 | 1,088 | $16,951.04 | $16,966.53 |
$-16.32 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 2:40pm ET | $15.36 | 1,104 | $16,962.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.63 | 1,104 | $16,151.52 | $16,155.09 |
$-811.44 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.9h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:30am ET | $14.16 | 1,140 | $16,142.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $13.98 | 1,140 | $15,931.50 | $15,944.19 |
$-210.90 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.94 | 1,066 | $15,931.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $14.82 | 1,066 | $15,803.45 | $15,816.27 |
$-127.92 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.68 | 1,077 | $15,810.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 2:00pm ET | $14.37 | 1,077 | $15,475.74 | $15,481.65 |
$-334.62 (-2.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 1:25pm ET | $14.11 | 1,097 | $15,478.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 3:45pm ET | $14.10 | 1,097 | $15,462.22 | $15,465.30 |
$-16.35 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 12:25pm ET | $14.35 | 1,078 | $15,463.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 1:05pm ET | $14.18 | 1,078 | $15,280.65 | $15,282.04 |
$-183.26 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 2:55pm ET | $13.90 | 1,099 | $15,280.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:20pm ET | $13.82 | 1,099 | $15,193.67 | $15,195.22 |
$-86.82 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.86 | 1,181 | $15,187.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $12.27 | 1,181 | $14,496.77 | $14,504.33 |
$-690.89 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
55m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 3:40pm ET | $12.64 | 1,147 | $14,492.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $11.94 | 1,147 | $13,695.18 | $13,707.16 |
$-797.17 (-5.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $13.57 | 1,010 | $13,705.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $13.53 | 1,010 | $13,665.30 | $13,666.76 |
$-40.40 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 3:50pm ET | $16.10 | 848 | $13,657.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:10pm ET | $16.85 | 848 | $14,288.80 | $14,298.52 |
+$631.76 (+4.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:05am ET | $16.85 | 848 | $14,293.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:40am ET | $18.42 | 848 | $15,618.63 | $15,624.11 |
+$1,325.59 (+9.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:40pm ET | $16.53 | 945 | $15,620.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 10:45am ET | $17.91 | 945 | $16,924.95 | $16,928.21 |
+$1,304.10 (+8.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 1:25pm ET | $17.88 | 946 | $16,914.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:45pm ET | $17.47 | 946 | $16,526.62 | $16,540.35 |
$-387.86 (-2.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 12:35pm ET | $18.77 | 881 | $16,533.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $17.92 | 881 | $15,787.52 | $15,794.58 |
$-745.77 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:55pm ET | $18.63 | 847 | $15,779.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:25am ET | $18.61 | 847 | $15,762.67 | $15,777.64 |
$-16.94 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:30pm ET | $16.88 | 934 | $15,765.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 2:10pm ET | $16.74 | 934 | $15,630.49 | $15,642.49 |
$-135.15 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:25pm ET | $18.67 | 837 | $15,630.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 1:10pm ET | $19.43 | 837 | $16,262.91 | $16,274.43 |
+$631.94 (+4.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$16,274.43
Net Profit/Loss:
+$6,274.43
Total Return:
+62.74%