RIVN Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
+14.71%
Year to Date Return
$21,267.56
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$18,540.68
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
38
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
11.8/35
Total Return
17.1/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
4.0/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
38.3/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 37.7
30-Day Momentum
11
+0.2%
30d Return
36%
Win Rate
11
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 11.7
Conf: 0.90×
Declining (-27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,922
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$18,540.68
Current Value
$21,267.56
Period P&L
$2,726.96
Max Drawdown
-33.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.17
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
16 /
25
Best Trade
+8.04%
Worst Trade
-4.05%
Avg Trade Return
+0.34%
Avg Hold Time
14.6h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,621,204.16
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,726.96
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,726.96
Gross Return
+14.71%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.71%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $18,540.68 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 31, 2025 3:35pm ET | $19.79 | 942 | $18,637.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:30am ET | $19.65 | 942 | $18,509.64 | $18,511.68 |
$-127.83 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 2:55pm ET | $19.69 | 940 | $18,503.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $19.60 | 940 | $18,419.30 | $18,427.08 |
$-84.60 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.6h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:35am ET | $19.60 | 940 | $18,419.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 1:55pm ET | $19.92 | 940 | $18,723.86 | $18,731.64 |
+$304.56 (+1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:30am ET | $19.98 | 937 | $18,721.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:35am ET | $19.83 | 937 | $18,576.03 | $18,586.31 |
$-145.33 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 11:30am ET | $19.16 | 970 | $18,585.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 12:50pm ET | $19.12 | 970 | $18,550.38 | $18,551.49 |
$-34.82 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 2:55pm ET | $18.96 | 978 | $18,537.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 3:20pm ET | $18.80 | 978 | $18,386.40 | $18,399.90 |
$-151.59 (-0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
24m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 1:00pm ET | $16.85 | 1,092 | $18,394.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 1:20pm ET | $16.78 | 1,092 | $18,318.30 | $18,323.46 |
$-76.44 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 3:20pm ET | $16.09 | 1,139 | $18,320.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:45am ET | $16.23 | 1,139 | $18,486.08 | $18,488.73 |
+$165.27 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.4h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 1:45pm ET | $15.70 | 1,178 | $18,488.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 3:05pm ET | $15.67 | 1,178 | $18,459.26 | $18,459.28 |
$-29.45 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 3:20pm ET | $15.23 | 1,212 | $18,452.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $15.19 | 1,212 | $18,410.28 | $18,416.86 |
$-42.42 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 9:40am ET | $15.30 | 1,203 | $18,405.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $15.25 | 1,203 | $18,339.74 | $18,350.69 |
$-66.17 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
24m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 3:50pm ET | $14.75 | 1,244 | $18,342.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.48 | 1,244 | $18,013.12 | $18,021.03 |
$-329.66 (-1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.7d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 10:10am ET | $14.59 | 1,234 | $18,007.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:05am ET | $14.41 | 1,234 | $17,788.11 | $17,801.38 |
$-219.65 (-1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
54m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 2:40pm ET | $14.24 | 1,250 | $17,800.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $14.19 | 1,250 | $17,737.50 | $17,738.88 |
$-62.50 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.9h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $14.02 | 1,264 | $17,727.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $14.48 | 1,264 | $18,302.72 | $18,314.00 |
+$575.12 (+3.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 9:40am ET | $14.97 | 1,223 | $18,302.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 12:25pm ET | $15.32 | 1,223 | $18,736.36 | $18,748.16 |
+$434.16 (+2.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 2:15pm ET | $14.47 | 1,295 | $18,743.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 3:10pm ET | $14.43 | 1,295 | $18,680.38 | $18,684.71 |
$-63.45 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 1:50pm ET | $15.32 | 1,219 | $18,675.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 2:20pm ET | $15.21 | 1,219 | $18,540.87 | $18,550.50 |
$-134.21 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:30pm ET | $14.86 | 1,248 | $18,545.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 2:25pm ET | $15.23 | 1,248 | $19,000.80 | $19,006.02 |
+$455.52 (+2.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.54 | 1,223 | $19,005.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 2:00pm ET | $15.30 | 1,223 | $18,711.90 | $18,712.50 |
$-293.52 (-1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:00am ET | $14.95 | 1,251 | $18,702.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 12:50pm ET | $15.10 | 1,251 | $18,883.85 | $18,893.90 |
+$181.40 (+1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $15.09 | 1,252 | $18,892.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:35am ET | $14.95 | 1,252 | $18,723.66 | $18,724.88 |
$-169.02 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:50am ET | $15.48 | 1,209 | $18,721.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $16.73 | 1,209 | $20,226.57 | $20,230.08 |
+$1,505.20 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 2:40pm ET | $16.33 | 1,238 | $20,222.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:55am ET | $16.27 | 1,238 | $20,148.45 | $20,155.80 |
$-74.28 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.03 | 1,341 | $20,155.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:20pm ET | $15.26 | 1,341 | $20,463.66 | $20,464.23 |
+$308.43 (+1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 9:35am ET | $15.96 | 1,282 | $20,460.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:50am ET | $16.03 | 1,282 | $20,553.02 | $20,556.53 |
+$92.30 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $15.35 | 1,339 | $20,553.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:50am ET | $15.76 | 1,339 | $21,102.91 | $21,105.79 |
+$549.26 (+2.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 2:25pm ET | $15.56 | 1,356 | $21,099.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 10:55am ET | $15.88 | 1,356 | $21,526.50 | $21,532.93 |
+$427.14 (+2.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.5h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 11:45am ET | $15.11 | 1,425 | $21,531.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 12:30pm ET | $14.65 | 1,425 | $20,883.37 | $20,884.56 |
$-648.37 (-3.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 10:20am ET | $15.03 | 1,389 | $20,876.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 2:20pm ET | $15.27 | 1,389 | $21,216.97 | $21,225.00 |
+$340.44 (+1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 12:45pm ET | $14.67 | 1,447 | $21,224.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET | $14.63 | 1,447 | $21,169.61 | $21,170.01 |
$-54.99 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:45am ET | $15.19 | 1,393 | $21,166.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $15.27 | 1,393 | $21,278.07 | $21,281.45 |
+$111.44 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6.2h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 12:10pm ET | $15.48 | 1,375 | $21,279.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $15.84 | 1,375 | $21,780.00 | $21,782.09 |
+$500.64 (+2.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 3:30pm ET | $16.83 | 1,294 | $21,778.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $17.40 | 1,294 | $22,509.13 | $22,512.81 |
+$730.72 (+3.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 1:40pm ET | $16.91 | 1,331 | $22,507.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 2:40pm ET | $16.86 | 1,331 | $22,440.53 | $22,446.13 |
$-66.68 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $17.46 | 1,285 | $22,436.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 1:45pm ET | $17.75 | 1,285 | $22,808.75 | $22,818.78 |
+$372.65 (+1.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.3h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 2:30pm ET | $17.03 | 1,339 | $22,809.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 12:55pm ET | $16.34 | 1,339 | $21,885.95 | $21,894.87 |
$-923.91 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 1:25pm ET | $16.72 | 1,309 | $21,886.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $16.45 | 1,309 | $21,533.05 | $21,541.57 |
$-353.30 (-1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.1h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 10:40am ET | $16.11 | 1,337 | $21,539.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $16.05 | 1,337 | $21,458.72 | $21,461.22 |
$-80.35 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 3:25pm ET | $15.23 | 1,409 | $21,452.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 3:35pm ET | $15.16 | 1,409 | $21,367.48 | $21,376.68 |
$-84.54 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 3:40pm ET | $14.69 | 1,455 | $21,373.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:00am ET | $14.61 | 1,455 | $21,264.82 | $21,267.56 |
$-109.12 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$21,267.56
Net Profit/Loss:
+$11,267.56
Total Return:
+112.68%