SPY Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 40 trades in period
-2.30%
Year to Date Return
$10,712.55
Current Value
23%
Win Rate
$10,964.92
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
18
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
3.9/35
Total Return
7.6/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
1.5/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
18.4/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 18.3
30-Day Momentum
9
-0.2%
30d Return
18%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.90×
Cooling (-9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,536
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$10,964.92
Current Value
$10,712.55
Period P&L
$-252.35
Max Drawdown
-6.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
9 /
31
Best Trade
+0.85%
Worst Trade
-0.61%
Avg Trade Return
-0.06%
Avg Hold Time
10.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$850,233.02
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-252.35
Net P&L (after fees)
$-252.35
Gross Return
-2.30%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.30%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $10,964.92 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 1:35pm ET | $688.49 | 15 | $10,327.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 2:15pm ET | $688.31 | 15 | $10,324.65 | $10,962.19 |
$-2.70 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
42m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 10:50am ET | $692.42 | 15 | $10,386.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 1:10pm ET | $692.78 | 15 | $10,391.70 | $10,967.59 |
+$5.40 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 3:25pm ET | $689.58 | 15 | $10,343.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $693.99 | 15 | $10,409.85 | $11,033.82 |
+$66.22 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 11:40am ET | $694.60 | 15 | $10,418.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 12:45pm ET | $693.95 | 15 | $10,409.25 | $11,024.14 |
$-9.67 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 1:55pm ET | $688.11 | 16 | $11,009.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:55pm ET | $693.98 | 16 | $11,103.68 | $11,118.06 |
+$93.92 (+0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 1:15pm ET | $692.97 | 16 | $11,087.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 2:20pm ET | $692.31 | 16 | $11,076.96 | $11,107.50 |
$-10.56 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $680.12 | 16 | $10,881.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:50am ET | $680.88 | 16 | $10,894.08 | $11,119.66 |
+$12.16 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:20am ET | $689.56 | 16 | $11,032.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:40pm ET | $688.81 | 16 | $11,020.88 | $11,107.66 |
$-12.00 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 1:30pm ET | $696.01 | 15 | $10,440.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 3:50pm ET | $695.68 | 15 | $10,435.20 | $11,102.70 |
$-4.97 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:10pm ET | $690.58 | 16 | $11,049.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:30am ET | $691.75 | 16 | $11,068.00 | $11,121.42 |
+$18.72 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:15pm ET | $687.22 | 16 | $10,995.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $687.07 | 16 | $10,993.12 | $11,119.02 |
$-2.40 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:50am ET | $681.04 | 16 | $10,896.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 1:20pm ET | $679.17 | 16 | $10,866.72 | $11,089.02 |
$-30.00 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:00am ET | $695.81 | 15 | $10,437.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 10, 2026 11:10am ET | $694.90 | 15 | $10,423.50 | $11,075.37 |
$-13.65 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 11:35am ET | $692.78 | 15 | $10,391.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 12:00pm ET | $691.48 | 15 | $10,372.27 | $11,056.02 |
$-19.35 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:10am ET | $681.16 | 16 | $10,898.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $679.81 | 16 | $10,876.96 | $11,034.34 |
$-21.68 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.6h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $686.89 | 16 | $10,990.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $683.96 | 16 | $10,943.36 | $10,987.46 |
$-46.88 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.6h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 1:00pm ET | $687.59 | 15 | $10,313.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:30pm ET | $686.54 | 15 | $10,298.10 | $10,971.71 |
$-15.75 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 3:50pm ET | $681.60 | 16 | $10,905.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 2:20pm ET | $686.86 | 16 | $10,989.84 | $11,055.95 |
+$84.24 (+0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.5h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 1:40pm ET | $687.32 | 16 | $10,997.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $683.51 | 16 | $10,936.16 | $10,994.99 |
$-60.96 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.8h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 10:15am ET | $684.68 | 16 | $10,954.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 1:50pm ET | $685.88 | 16 | $10,974.08 | $11,014.19 |
+$19.20 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.6h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $682.46 | 16 | $10,919.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $679.84 | 16 | $10,877.44 | $10,972.27 |
$-41.92 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 11:05am ET | $675.95 | 16 | $10,815.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:15pm ET | $673.81 | 16 | $10,780.96 | $10,938.04 |
$-34.23 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.2h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 12:55pm ET | $675.97 | 16 | $10,815.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 1:40pm ET | $674.98 | 16 | $10,799.68 | $10,922.20 |
$-15.84 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 1:40pm ET | $669.58 | 16 | $10,713.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 12:20pm ET | $668.65 | 16 | $10,698.40 | $10,907.27 |
$-14.93 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 1:10pm ET | $671.85 | 16 | $10,749.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 2:25pm ET | $671.18 | 16 | $10,738.88 | $10,896.55 |
$-10.72 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $657.56 | 16 | $10,520.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $657.00 | 16 | $10,512.00 | $10,887.59 |
$-8.96 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $659.64 | 16 | $10,554.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $655.63 | 16 | $10,490.08 | $10,823.43 |
$-64.16 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $638.51 | 16 | $10,216.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 12:20pm ET | $636.32 | 16 | $10,181.04 | $10,788.31 |
$-35.12 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 3:40pm ET | $656.29 | 16 | $10,500.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 12:15pm ET | $653.26 | 16 | $10,452.16 | $10,739.75 |
$-48.56 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.6h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $657.93 | 16 | $10,526.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 2:45pm ET | $655.30 | 16 | $10,484.80 | $10,697.67 |
$-42.08 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 3:50pm ET | $675.13 | 15 | $10,126.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 10:20am ET | $674.60 | 15 | $10,119.00 | $10,689.79 |
$-7.88 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 3:05pm ET | $679.69 | 15 | $10,195.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 3:40pm ET | $678.96 | 15 | $10,184.40 | $10,678.84 |
$-10.95 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:15pm ET | $693.60 | 15 | $10,404.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 10:20am ET | $698.85 | 15 | $10,482.75 | $10,757.59 |
+$78.75 (+0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 1:15pm ET | $707.98 | 15 | $10,619.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 3:35pm ET | $707.94 | 15 | $10,619.10 | $10,756.99 |
$-0.60 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $708.33 | 15 | $10,624.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 12:30pm ET | $708.91 | 15 | $10,633.65 | $10,765.69 |
+$8.70 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 2:35pm ET | $709.28 | 15 | $10,639.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 3:35pm ET | $707.55 | 15 | $10,613.25 | $10,739.74 |
$-25.95 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $713.95 | 15 | $10,709.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $713.47 | 15 | $10,701.98 | $10,732.47 |
$-7.27 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:35pm ET | $710.63 | 15 | $10,659.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $710.25 | 15 | $10,653.74 | $10,726.76 |
$-5.71 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $723.04 | 14 | $10,122.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $722.42 | 14 | $10,113.95 | $10,718.08 |
$-8.68 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:30pm ET | $717.88 | 14 | $10,050.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 3:55pm ET | $717.48 | 14 | $10,044.72 | $10,712.55 |
$-5.53 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
25m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,712.55
Net Profit/Loss:
+$712.55
Total Return:
+7.13%