TLT Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 46 trades in period
-3.99%
Year to Date Return
$9,222.59
Current Value
22%
Win Rate
$9,605.44
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
+0.1%
ATR%
0.7%
Range Pos
20%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality
3.5/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 3.4
30-Day Momentum
9
-1.1%
30d Return
9%
Win Rate
11
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.90×
Steady (+6 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,280
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,605.44
Current Value
$9,222.59
Period P&L
$-382.87
Max Drawdown
-7.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.36
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
46
Winners / Losers
10 /
36
Best Trade
+0.52%
Worst Trade
-0.75%
Avg Trade Return
-0.09%
Avg Hold Time
8.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$864,701.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-382.87
Net P&L (after fees)
$-382.87
Gross Return
-3.99%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.99%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TLT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 46 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,605.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 12:40pm ET | $87.18 | 110 | $9,589.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 1:25pm ET | $87.15 | 110 | $9,585.95 | $9,602.16 |
$-3.30 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
48m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $87.48 | 109 | $9,535.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.20 | 109 | $9,504.80 | $9,571.62 |
$-30.54 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.7h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $87.93 | 108 | $9,496.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 2:55pm ET | $87.89 | 108 | $9,492.12 | $9,567.30 |
$-4.32 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $87.58 | 109 | $9,545.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 3:05pm ET | $87.86 | 109 | $9,576.20 | $9,597.82 |
+$30.52 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $87.76 | 109 | $9,565.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 10:15am ET | $87.62 | 109 | $9,550.59 | $9,583.12 |
$-14.70 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
42m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.62 | 108 | $9,570.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 10:55am ET | $88.40 | 108 | $9,546.66 | $9,559.36 |
$-23.76 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 12:00pm ET | $88.17 | 108 | $9,522.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 12:30pm ET | $88.03 | 108 | $9,506.70 | $9,543.70 |
$-15.66 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.85 | 109 | $9,466.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $86.63 | 109 | $9,442.13 | $9,519.28 |
$-24.42 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:05am ET | $87.32 | 109 | $9,517.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $87.77 | 109 | $9,566.93 | $9,568.88 |
+$49.59 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 12:35pm ET | $88.36 | 108 | $9,542.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 1:50pm ET | $88.28 | 108 | $9,533.70 | $9,559.59 |
$-9.29 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 3:05pm ET | $87.93 | 108 | $9,496.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 3:25pm ET | $87.87 | 108 | $9,489.42 | $9,552.37 |
$-7.21 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:30am ET | $87.50 | 109 | $9,537.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $87.40 | 109 | $9,526.60 | $9,541.47 |
$-10.90 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:50pm ET | $87.42 | 109 | $9,528.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 3:05pm ET | $87.43 | 109 | $9,529.33 | $9,542.56 |
+$1.09 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 11:45am ET | $86.56 | 110 | $9,521.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 12:05pm ET | $86.49 | 110 | $9,513.35 | $9,534.86 |
$-7.70 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 12:05pm ET | $86.63 | 110 | $9,528.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:50pm ET | $86.55 | 110 | $9,520.50 | $9,526.61 |
$-8.25 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
48m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 2:35pm ET | $87.32 | 109 | $9,518.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:00pm ET | $87.26 | 109 | $9,511.34 | $9,519.53 |
$-7.08 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
24m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $87.33 | 109 | $9,519.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $87.51 | 109 | $9,538.59 | $9,538.60 |
+$19.08 (+0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
4.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 11:35am ET | $88.24 | 108 | $9,529.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:05pm ET | $88.17 | 108 | $9,521.82 | $9,530.50 |
$-8.10 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:10pm ET | $89.93 | 105 | $9,443.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 12:30pm ET | $89.90 | 105 | $9,439.50 | $9,526.83 |
$-3.67 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:20am ET | $89.50 | 106 | $9,487.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 11:50am ET | $89.46 | 106 | $9,483.29 | $9,522.59 |
$-4.24 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 9:35am ET | $89.93 | 105 | $9,442.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 12:25pm ET | $89.89 | 105 | $9,438.94 | $9,518.88 |
$-3.71 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $90.07 | 105 | $9,457.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 12:30pm ET | $90.09 | 105 | $9,458.94 | $9,519.94 |
+$1.06 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 2:45pm ET | $89.53 | 106 | $9,489.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.99 | 106 | $9,432.94 | $9,463.23 |
$-56.71 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.8h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 11:15am ET | $89.36 | 105 | $9,382.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 1:15pm ET | $89.32 | 105 | $9,378.08 | $9,458.51 |
$-4.72 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 3:10pm ET | $88.81 | 106 | $9,413.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $88.33 | 106 | $9,362.98 | $9,407.94 |
$-50.57 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.3h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 10:55am ET | $88.54 | 106 | $9,385.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:00pm ET | $88.89 | 106 | $9,422.34 | $9,444.51 |
+$36.57 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 2:15pm ET | $87.32 | 108 | $9,431.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 3:30pm ET | $87.24 | 108 | $9,421.38 | $9,434.79 |
$-9.72 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.3h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 9:45am ET | $87.04 | 108 | $9,399.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $87.00 | 108 | $9,395.46 | $9,430.47 |
$-4.32 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
55m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:45pm ET | $87.18 | 108 | $9,415.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 3:55pm ET | $87.19 | 108 | $9,416.52 | $9,431.55 |
+$1.08 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 1:40pm ET | $87.32 | 108 | $9,430.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 2:40pm ET | $87.19 | 108 | $9,416.92 | $9,418.45 |
$-13.10 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.18 | 109 | $9,393.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.69 | 109 | $9,340.75 | $9,366.13 |
$-52.32 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 1:40pm ET | $86.83 | 107 | $9,291.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 1:55pm ET | $86.73 | 107 | $9,279.95 | $9,354.73 |
$-11.40 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 2:45pm ET | $86.13 | 108 | $9,301.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $85.48 | 108 | $9,231.84 | $9,285.07 |
$-69.66 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.8h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $86.62 | 107 | $9,268.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 3:00pm ET | $86.89 | 107 | $9,296.70 | $9,313.42 |
+$28.35 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 10:00am ET | $86.54 | 107 | $9,259.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 12:10pm ET | $86.61 | 107 | $9,266.83 | $9,320.47 |
+$7.05 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 2:15pm ET | $86.73 | 107 | $9,280.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 12:40pm ET | $86.15 | 107 | $9,218.05 | $9,258.41 |
$-62.06 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.4h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:30am ET | $86.62 | 106 | $9,181.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 2:00pm ET | $86.88 | 106 | $9,208.75 | $9,285.44 |
+$27.03 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.5h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 2:00pm ET | $86.44 | 107 | $9,249.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $86.43 | 107 | $9,248.54 | $9,284.90 |
$-0.54 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 1:25pm ET | $86.87 | 106 | $9,208.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 1:35pm ET | $86.83 | 106 | $9,203.98 | $9,280.66 |
$-4.24 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.04 | 106 | $9,226.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $86.99 | 106 | $9,220.41 | $9,274.83 |
$-5.83 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 12:50pm ET | $86.82 | 106 | $9,203.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 2:20pm ET | $86.68 | 106 | $9,188.61 | $9,259.99 |
$-14.84 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 2:30pm ET | $86.69 | 106 | $9,189.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 11:30am ET | $86.61 | 106 | $9,181.19 | $9,252.04 |
$-7.95 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21h held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 2:35pm ET | $86.36 | 107 | $9,241.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:05pm ET | $86.29 | 107 | $9,232.50 | $9,243.48 |
$-8.56 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 1:00pm ET | $85.85 | 107 | $9,185.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:10pm ET | $85.72 | 107 | $9,172.57 | $9,230.11 |
$-13.38 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:15pm ET | $85.79 | 107 | $9,179.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 30, 2026 3:25pm ET | $85.74 | 107 | $9,174.18 | $9,225.29 |
$-4.82 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 1:45pm ET | $84.93 | 108 | $9,172.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 2:20pm ET | $84.91 | 108 | $9,170.28 | $9,222.59 |
$-2.70 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,222.59
Net Profit/Loss:
$-777.41
Total Return:
-7.77%