TQQQ Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 41 trades in period
-15.55%
Year to Date Return
$8,249.40
Current Value
24%
Win Rate
$9,767.83
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
4.5/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 4.4
30-Day Momentum
38
+9.3%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 45.3
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+34 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,558
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,767.83
Current Value
$8,249.40
Period P&L
$-1,518.42
Max Drawdown
-36.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.17
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
10 /
31
Best Trade
+8.31%
Worst Trade
-5.48%
Avg Trade Return
-0.39%
Avg Hold Time
12.5h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$702,370.47
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,518.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,518.42
Gross Return
-15.55%
Net Return (after fees)
-15.55%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,767.83 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $53.96 | 181 | $9,766.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:25am ET | $52.97 | 181 | $9,587.57 | $9,588.61 |
$-179.19 (-1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
48m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 3:40pm ET | $53.68 | 178 | $9,555.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $53.51 | 178 | $9,524.76 | $9,557.98 |
$-30.63 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
12m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 12:45pm ET | $54.22 | 176 | $9,542.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 1:10pm ET | $53.84 | 176 | $9,474.96 | $9,490.22 |
$-67.76 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
24m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 11:10am ET | $55.87 | 169 | $9,441.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 3:40pm ET | $56.09 | 169 | $9,478.37 | $9,527.40 |
+$37.18 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.5h held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $55.60 | 171 | $9,506.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.81 | 171 | $9,372.51 | $9,393.08 |
$-134.32 (-1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.6h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 1:25pm ET | $55.50 | 169 | $9,379.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 2:00pm ET | $55.15 | 169 | $9,320.45 | $9,334.03 |
$-59.05 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
36m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:50pm ET | $54.42 | 171 | $9,305.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 3:45pm ET | $54.25 | 171 | $9,275.90 | $9,304.29 |
$-29.74 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
54m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:45am ET | $51.33 | 181 | $9,289.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:50am ET | $51.49 | 181 | $9,320.52 | $9,334.99 |
+$30.70 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.1h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:00am ET | $54.25 | 172 | $9,330.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:40pm ET | $54.35 | 172 | $9,347.34 | $9,352.05 |
+$17.06 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.7h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 1:15pm ET | $55.43 | 168 | $9,312.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 2:45pm ET | $55.39 | 168 | $9,304.68 | $9,344.49 |
$-7.56 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.5h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.68 | 162 | $9,344.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 11:15am ET | $57.19 | 162 | $9,263.97 | $9,264.30 |
$-80.19 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 12:15pm ET | $54.85 | 168 | $9,214.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:00am ET | $54.90 | 168 | $9,223.20 | $9,272.72 |
+$8.42 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:30pm ET | $52.21 | 177 | $9,241.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $50.97 | 177 | $9,021.69 | $9,053.24 |
$-219.48 (-2.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.4h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:40am ET | $48.48 | 186 | $9,017.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 1:20pm ET | $48.15 | 186 | $8,955.88 | $8,991.84 |
$-61.40 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:40am ET | $50.60 | 177 | $8,956.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:25pm ET | $51.90 | 177 | $9,185.61 | $9,221.25 |
+$229.41 (+2.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.8h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:35am ET | $51.81 | 177 | $9,170.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:10am ET | $50.82 | 177 | $8,995.30 | $9,046.46 |
$-174.79 (-1.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 10:45am ET | $49.20 | 183 | $9,003.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 10:50am ET | $49.08 | 183 | $8,980.98 | $9,023.84 |
$-22.62 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 20, 2026 1:00pm ET | $49.85 | 181 | $9,023.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 1:15pm ET | $49.56 | 181 | $8,970.90 | $8,971.62 |
$-52.22 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:15pm ET | $48.35 | 185 | $8,944.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 2:00pm ET | $48.02 | 185 | $8,884.05 | $8,910.74 |
$-60.88 (-0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 1:45pm ET | $49.67 | 179 | $8,890.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.49 | 179 | $8,679.71 | $8,700.42 |
$-210.32 (-2.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.8h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:35am ET | $47.29 | 183 | $8,654.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET | $48.01 | 183 | $8,786.09 | $8,831.52 |
+$131.10 (+1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.3h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 12:05pm ET | $50.13 | 176 | $8,822.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.67 | 176 | $8,390.40 | $8,399.03 |
$-432.49 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 11:05am ET | $47.04 | 178 | $8,373.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 1:30pm ET | $47.23 | 178 | $8,407.19 | $8,433.10 |
+$34.07 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $49.98 | 168 | $8,396.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 10:25am ET | $49.53 | 168 | $8,321.04 | $8,357.50 |
$-75.60 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 12:40pm ET | $47.67 | 175 | $8,341.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 12:50pm ET | $47.51 | 175 | $8,313.38 | $8,329.50 |
$-28.00 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
10m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.35 | 175 | $8,287.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 12:25pm ET | $47.23 | 175 | $8,265.25 | $8,307.63 |
$-21.88 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:45pm ET | $48.24 | 172 | $8,298.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET | $48.16 | 172 | $8,283.52 | $8,293.01 |
$-14.62 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.2h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 2:10pm ET | $45.04 | 184 | $8,287.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 2:45pm ET | $44.87 | 184 | $8,256.08 | $8,261.73 |
$-31.28 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.06 | 183 | $8,245.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET | $44.83 | 183 | $8,203.91 | $8,219.66 |
$-42.07 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6.4h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $44.79 | 183 | $8,197.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET | $44.20 | 183 | $8,088.60 | $8,110.98 |
$-108.68 (-1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $39.49 | 205 | $8,094.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $38.86 | 205 | $7,966.30 | $7,982.86 |
$-128.13 (-1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 3:45pm ET | $43.40 | 183 | $7,942.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.02 | 183 | $7,506.66 | $7,547.32 |
$-435.54 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $43.92 | 171 | $7,511.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:00am ET | $42.11 | 171 | $7,200.83 | $7,236.97 |
$-310.35 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.10 | 150 | $7,215.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET | $47.61 | 150 | $7,141.50 | $7,163.47 |
$-73.50 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 3:05pm ET | $49.15 | 145 | $7,126.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.85 | 145 | $7,083.25 | $7,120.33 |
$-43.14 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:40pm ET | $52.99 | 134 | $7,101.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 1:10pm ET | $56.33 | 134 | $7,548.23 | $7,567.23 |
+$446.90 (+6.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 3:40pm ET | $58.49 | 129 | $7,544.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 11:00am ET | $57.90 | 129 | $7,468.46 | $7,491.12 |
$-76.11 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $60.96 | 122 | $7,437.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 2:55pm ET | $62.30 | 122 | $7,600.60 | $7,654.61 |
+$163.49 (+2.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 1:50pm ET | $61.22 | 125 | $7,652.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:05pm ET | $60.99 | 125 | $7,623.74 | $7,625.85 |
$-28.76 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 1:10pm ET | $65.39 | 116 | $7,585.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:35pm ET | $65.33 | 116 | $7,578.16 | $7,618.19 |
$-7.66 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:15pm ET | $64.90 | 117 | $7,593.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 10:45am ET | $70.29 | 117 | $8,224.51 | $8,249.40 |
+$631.21 (+8.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,249.40
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,750.60
Total Return:
-17.51%