XLE Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 42 trades in period
+0.86%
Year to Date Return
$9,767.65
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$9,684.54
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
4
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality
3.8/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 3.8
30-Day Momentum
9
-3.6%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,924
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,684.54
Current Value
$9,767.65
Period P&L
$83.14
Max Drawdown
-13.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
20 /
22
Best Trade
+2.88%
Worst Trade
-5.52%
Avg Trade Return
+0.03%
Avg Hold Time
21.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$844,372.79
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$83.14
Net P&L (after fees)
$83.14
Gross Return
+0.86%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.86%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,684.54 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2026 3:55pm ET | $45.65 | 212 | $9,677.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 3:35pm ET | $46.97 | 212 | $9,956.58 | $9,963.29 |
+$278.78 (+2.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 3:40pm ET | $45.79 | 217 | $9,936.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 3:55pm ET | $45.63 | 217 | $9,900.63 | $9,927.48 |
$-35.80 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $45.64 | 217 | $9,903.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 9, 2026 10:15am ET | $46.59 | 217 | $10,110.03 | $10,133.63 |
+$206.15 (+2.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 11:45am ET | $46.47 | 218 | $10,129.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 11:55am ET | $46.40 | 218 | $10,115.20 | $10,119.46 |
$-14.17 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
12m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2026 12:40pm ET | $47.02 | 215 | $10,108.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 2:40pm ET | $47.09 | 215 | $10,123.28 | $10,134.51 |
+$15.05 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 11:05am ET | $47.92 | 211 | $10,110.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:55pm ET | $47.82 | 211 | $10,089.81 | $10,114.26 |
$-20.26 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 2:00pm ET | $47.76 | 211 | $10,077.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 2:10pm ET | $47.70 | 211 | $10,063.65 | $10,100.12 |
$-14.14 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
12m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.76 | 207 | $10,092.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 2:00pm ET | $48.58 | 207 | $10,056.06 | $10,063.89 |
$-36.23 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.5h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 3:45pm ET | $48.91 | 205 | $10,026.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $49.37 | 205 | $10,120.85 | $10,158.19 |
+$94.30 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 1:30pm ET | $49.13 | 206 | $10,119.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 1:40pm ET | $49.08 | 206 | $10,110.48 | $10,148.92 |
$-9.27 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
12m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 3:05pm ET | $50.03 | 202 | $10,105.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 1:00pm ET | $50.78 | 202 | $10,257.56 | $10,301.43 |
+$152.51 (+1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.9h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 2:00pm ET | $50.43 | 204 | $10,287.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.13 | 204 | $10,227.54 | $10,241.25 |
$-60.18 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 9:35am ET | $50.49 | 202 | $10,197.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 1:15pm ET | $51.07 | 202 | $10,316.14 | $10,359.42 |
+$118.17 (+1.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.7h held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 2:10pm ET | $52.63 | 196 | $10,316.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.83 | 196 | $10,158.68 | $10,201.64 |
$-157.78 (-1.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.3h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.71 | 193 | $10,173.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 3:05pm ET | $53.21 | 193 | $10,268.57 | $10,297.18 |
+$95.54 (+0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.6h held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 3:50pm ET | $53.69 | 191 | $10,253.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $53.70 | 191 | $10,256.70 | $10,300.04 |
+$2.86 (+0.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
6m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.59 | 188 | $10,262.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 1:50pm ET | $54.83 | 188 | $10,308.04 | $10,345.16 |
+$45.12 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.3h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.62 | 189 | $10,322.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 2:15pm ET | $55.04 | 189 | $10,402.56 | $10,425.48 |
+$80.32 (+0.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
6.2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 12:00pm ET | $54.63 | 190 | $10,378.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.35 | 190 | $10,326.50 | $10,373.23 |
$-52.25 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.5h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.64 | 186 | $10,349.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 27, 2026 10:05am ET | $55.12 | 186 | $10,251.39 | $10,275.58 |
$-97.65 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 1:15pm ET | $56.79 | 180 | $10,222.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 2:00pm ET | $56.69 | 180 | $10,203.39 | $10,256.77 |
$-18.81 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
45m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 11:05am ET | $56.18 | 182 | $10,224.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2026 11:20am ET | $55.94 | 182 | $10,180.17 | $10,212.18 |
$-44.59 (-0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
15m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET | $56.47 | 180 | $10,165.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $56.28 | 180 | $10,130.40 | $10,177.08 |
$-35.10 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 9:55am ET | $56.74 | 179 | $10,157.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 11:45am ET | $56.72 | 179 | $10,152.88 | $10,172.61 |
$-4.47 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 12:10pm ET | $56.29 | 180 | $10,133.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 2:15pm ET | $56.63 | 180 | $10,193.40 | $10,232.91 |
+$60.30 (+0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 12:40pm ET | $57.56 | 177 | $10,188.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 3:45pm ET | $57.71 | 177 | $10,213.79 | $10,258.58 |
+$25.67 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $58.20 | 176 | $10,243.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 10:10am ET | $58.61 | 176 | $10,315.36 | $10,330.53 |
+$71.95 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.69 | 173 | $10,325.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 1:15pm ET | $60.01 | 173 | $10,380.87 | $10,385.89 |
+$55.36 (+0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.95 | 173 | $10,371.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 12:25pm ET | $60.74 | 173 | $10,508.02 | $10,522.56 |
+$136.67 (+1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 2:50pm ET | $62.66 | 167 | $10,464.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:45am ET | $62.67 | 167 | $10,465.06 | $10,523.40 |
+$0.84 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 12:35pm ET | $62.49 | 168 | $10,498.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $60.31 | 168 | $10,132.08 | $10,157.16 |
$-366.24 (-3.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.9h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 2:20pm ET | $59.19 | 171 | $10,120.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $59.03 | 171 | $10,094.80 | $10,131.32 |
$-25.84 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.8d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 3:15pm ET | $60.12 | 168 | $10,100.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.80 | 168 | $9,542.40 | $9,573.58 |
$-557.74 (-5.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.3h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 11:50am ET | $56.93 | 168 | $9,564.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $56.79 | 168 | $9,541.56 | $9,550.90 |
$-22.68 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.6h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 3:55pm ET | $57.13 | 167 | $9,541.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.35 | 167 | $9,411.28 | $9,420.64 |
$-130.26 (-1.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
17.6h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:45am ET | $55.79 | 168 | $9,372.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 11:55am ET | $55.67 | 168 | $9,353.40 | $9,401.32 |
$-19.32 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:25pm ET | $54.29 | 173 | $9,393.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 12:05pm ET | $55.40 | 173 | $9,583.34 | $9,591.62 |
+$190.30 (+2.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 1:25pm ET | $56.43 | 169 | $9,536.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 11:00am ET | $56.63 | 169 | $9,571.31 | $9,626.26 |
+$34.64 (+0.4%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.6h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 2:10pm ET | $56.85 | 169 | $9,608.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 3:35pm ET | $56.83 | 169 | $9,603.43 | $9,621.19 |
$-5.07 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 3:45pm ET | $57.74 | 166 | $9,585.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 2:20pm ET | $58.76 | 166 | $9,754.99 | $9,790.51 |
+$169.32 (+1.8%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.6h held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 2:45pm ET | $59.51 | 164 | $9,760.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $59.22 | 164 | $9,712.08 | $9,742.23 |
$-48.28 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 11:30am ET | $59.38 | 164 | $9,738.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 3:50pm ET | $59.53 | 164 | $9,763.74 | $9,767.65 |
+$25.42 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,767.65
Net Profit/Loss:
$-232.35
Total Return:
-2.32%