Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
⚠️
Viewing Era 46 Data Only
This strategy crashed 45 times. "Era All" shows Mar 4, 2026 to present (63 days, 2 trades). View crash history ↓
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:40:19

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 4, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 20%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.7/35
Total Return
0.2/25
Win Rate
0.2/15
Profit Factor
14.1/15
Consistency
0.8/10
Raw Quality 17.0/100
× Confidence 0.20 = 3.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (20%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
210,381
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
731 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Era 46)

Starting Capital
$10,096.89
Current Value
$103.65
Total P&L
$5.76
Max Drawdown
-99.1%
Sharpe Ratio
7.41

Trade Statistics (Era 46)

Total Trades
2
Winners / Losers
2 / 0
Best Trade
+3.89%
Worst Trade
+2.97%
Avg Trade Return
+3.43%
Avg Hold Time
7.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Era 46)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$401.86
Estimated Fees
$1.00
Gross P&L
$5.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$4.76
Gross Return
+0.06%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.05%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

💸 Capital Refund History

When capital drops below $100, the simulation automatically refunds to $10,000 and continues. This ensures continuous data collection even for strategies that experience significant losses.

# Date Capital Before Trades Before Era Fees Paid Reason
1 May 17, 2024 $99.90 956 $10,649.31 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
2 Sep 18, 2024 $99.39 1,850 $9,692.18 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
3 Jan 31, 2025 $99.46 2,800 $10,240.28 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
4 Jun 20, 2025 $99.68 3,727 $9,657.98 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
5 Oct 22, 2025 $99.63 4,611 $9,922.63 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
6 Feb 17, 2026 $99.37 5,434 $8,788.43 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
7 Feb 17, 2026 $99.37 5,435 $0.50 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
8 Feb 18, 2026 $99.42 5,436 $0.50 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
9 Feb 18, 2026 $97.88 5,437 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
10 Feb 19, 2026 $98.52 5,438 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
11 Feb 19, 2026 $97.01 5,439 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
12 Feb 19, 2026 $97.88 5,440 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
13 Feb 20, 2026 $98.53 5,441 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
14 Feb 20, 2026 $98.54 5,442 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
15 Feb 20, 2026 $98.38 5,443 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
16 Feb 21, 2026 $98.06 5,444 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
17 Feb 22, 2026 $98.31 5,445 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
18 Feb 22, 2026 $98.22 5,446 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
19 Feb 22, 2026 $98.25 5,447 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
20 Feb 22, 2026 $97.80 5,448 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
21 Feb 23, 2026 $98.79 5,449 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
22 Feb 24, 2026 $98.46 5,450 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
23 Feb 24, 2026 $98.32 5,451 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
24 Feb 24, 2026 $98.22 5,452 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
25 Feb 24, 2026 $97.99 5,453 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
26 Feb 24, 2026 $99.45 5,454 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
27 Feb 26, 2026 $99.08 5,459 $2.52 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
28 Feb 27, 2026 $98.92 5,460 $0.50 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
29 Feb 27, 2026 $99.38 5,461 $0.50 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
30 Feb 27, 2026 $99.17 5,462 $0.50 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
31 Feb 27, 2026 $97.97 5,463 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
32 Feb 28, 2026 $98.31 5,464 $0.49 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
33 Feb 28, 2026 $94.29 5,465 $0.48 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
34 Mar 1, 2026 $94.29 5,466 $0.47 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
35 Mar 1, 2026 $94.11 5,467 $0.47 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
36 Mar 1, 2026 $92.54 5,468 $0.47 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
37 Mar 2, 2026 $92.66 5,469 $0.46 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
38 Mar 2, 2026 $92.59 5,470 $0.46 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
39 Mar 2, 2026 $92.31 5,471 $0.46 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
40 Mar 2, 2026 $96.15 5,472 $0.47 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
41 Mar 2, 2026 $96.30 5,473 $0.48 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
42 Mar 3, 2026 $96.11 5,474 $0.48 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
43 Mar 3, 2026 $95.40 5,475 $0.48 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
44 Mar 3, 2026 $95.45 5,476 $0.48 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
45 Mar 4, 2026 $96.89 5,477 $0.48 CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED

⚠️ Note: This simulation has been refunded 45 times. Total capital invested: $460,000. The return percentage accounts for all refunds.

📚 Strategy Crash History — Learning from Failures

Each "era" below represents a period where the strategy ran until it crashed (capital < $100). Study these to understand how this strategy can fail and what market conditions caused the losses.

💀 Era 1 — CRASHED
Jan 1, 2024 → May 17, 2024
Trades
956
Win Rate
11.6%
P&L
$-9,900.12
Fees Paid
$10,649.31
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,000
Crashed At
$99.90
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 2 — CRASHED
May 17, 2024 → Sep 18, 2024
Trades
894
Win Rate
11.0%
P&L
$-10,000.41
Fees Paid
$9,692.18
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,100
Crashed At
$99.39
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 3 — CRASHED
Sep 18, 2024 → Jan 31, 2025
Trades
950
Win Rate
12.0%
P&L
$-10,000.02
Fees Paid
$10,240.28
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$99.46
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 4 — CRASHED
Jan 31, 2025 → Jun 20, 2025
Trades
927
Win Rate
11.5%
P&L
$-9,999.91
Fees Paid
$9,657.98
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$99.68
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 5 — CRASHED
Jun 20, 2025 → Oct 22, 2025
Trades
884
Win Rate
8.0%
P&L
$-10,000.08
Fees Paid
$9,922.63
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,100
Crashed At
$99.63
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 6 — CRASHED
Oct 22, 2025 → Feb 17, 2026
Trades
823
Win Rate
7.5%
P&L
$-10,009.08
Fees Paid
$8,788.43
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,100
Crashed At
$99.37
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 7 — CRASHED
Feb 17, 2026 → Feb 17, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.50
Fees Paid
$0.50
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$99.37
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 8 — CRASHED
Feb 18, 2026 → Feb 18, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.45
Fees Paid
$0.50
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$99.42
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 9 — CRASHED
Feb 18, 2026 → Feb 18, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-2.04
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$97.88
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 10 — CRASHED
Feb 18, 2026 → Feb 19, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
100.0%
P&L
$0.15
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$98.52
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 11 — CRASHED
Feb 19, 2026 → Feb 19, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-2.00
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$97.01
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 12 — CRASHED
Feb 19, 2026 → Feb 19, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
100.0%
P&L
$0.38
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,097
Crashed At
$97.88
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 13 — CRASHED
Feb 20, 2026 → Feb 20, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
100.0%
P&L
$0.16
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$98.53
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 14 — CRASHED
Feb 20, 2026 → Feb 20, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.48
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$98.54
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 15 — CRASHED
Feb 20, 2026 → Feb 20, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.65
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$98.38
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 16 — CRASHED
Feb 21, 2026 → Feb 21, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.81
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$98.06
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 17 — CRASHED
Feb 21, 2026 → Feb 22, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.24
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$98.31
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 18 — CRASHED
Feb 21, 2026 → Feb 22, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.58
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$98.22
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 19 — CRASHED
Feb 22, 2026 → Feb 22, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.46
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$98.25
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 20 — CRASHED
Feb 22, 2026 → Feb 22, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.94
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$97.80
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 21 — CRASHED
Feb 23, 2026 → Feb 23, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
100.0%
P&L
$0.50
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$98.79
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 22 — CRASHED
Feb 24, 2026 → Feb 24, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.83
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$98.46
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 23 — CRASHED
Feb 24, 2026 → Feb 24, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.63
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$98.32
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 24 — CRASHED
Feb 24, 2026 → Feb 24, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.59
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$98.22
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 25 — CRASHED
Feb 24, 2026 → Feb 24, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.72
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$97.99
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 26 — CRASHED
Feb 24, 2026 → Feb 24, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
100.0%
P&L
$0.96
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$99.45
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 27 — CRASHED
Feb 24, 2026 → Feb 26, 2026
Trades
5
Win Rate
20.0%
P&L
$-2.90
Fees Paid
$2.52
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$99.08
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 28 — CRASHED
Feb 26, 2026 → Feb 27, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.65
Fees Paid
$0.50
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$98.92
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 29 — CRASHED
Feb 27, 2026 → Feb 27, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.04
Fees Paid
$0.50
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$99.38
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 30 — CRASHED
Feb 27, 2026 → Feb 27, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.70
Fees Paid
$0.50
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$99.17
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 31 — CRASHED
Feb 27, 2026 → Feb 27, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-1.70
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,099
Crashed At
$97.97
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 32 — CRASHED
Feb 27, 2026 → Feb 28, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.15
Fees Paid
$0.49
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$98.31
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 33 — CRASHED
Feb 28, 2026 → Feb 28, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-4.50
Fees Paid
$0.48
Return
-99.1%
Started
$10,098
Crashed At
$94.29
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 34 — CRASHED
Mar 1, 2026 → Mar 1, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.47
Fees Paid
$0.47
Return
-99.1%
Started
$10,094
Crashed At
$94.29
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 35 — CRASHED
Mar 1, 2026 → Mar 1, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.66
Fees Paid
$0.47
Return
-99.1%
Started
$10,094
Crashed At
$94.11
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 36 — CRASHED
Mar 1, 2026 → Mar 1, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-2.04
Fees Paid
$0.47
Return
-99.1%
Started
$10,094
Crashed At
$92.54
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 37 — CRASHED
Mar 1, 2026 → Mar 2, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.34
Fees Paid
$0.46
Return
-99.1%
Started
$10,093
Crashed At
$92.66
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 38 — CRASHED
Mar 2, 2026 → Mar 2, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.53
Fees Paid
$0.46
Return
-99.1%
Started
$10,093
Crashed At
$92.59
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 39 — CRASHED
Mar 2, 2026 → Mar 2, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.74
Fees Paid
$0.46
Return
-99.1%
Started
$10,093
Crashed At
$92.31
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 40 — CRASHED
Mar 2, 2026 → Mar 2, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
100.0%
P&L
$3.37
Fees Paid
$0.47
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,092
Crashed At
$96.15
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 41 — CRASHED
Mar 2, 2026 → Mar 2, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.33
Fees Paid
$0.48
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,096
Crashed At
$96.30
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 42 — CRASHED
Mar 2, 2026 → Mar 3, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.67
Fees Paid
$0.48
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,096
Crashed At
$96.11
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 43 — CRASHED
Mar 3, 2026 → Mar 3, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-1.19
Fees Paid
$0.48
Return
-99.1%
Started
$10,096
Crashed At
$95.40
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 44 — CRASHED
Mar 3, 2026 → Mar 3, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
0.0%
P&L
$-0.43
Fees Paid
$0.48
Return
-99.1%
Started
$10,095
Crashed At
$95.45
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED
💀 Era 45 — CRASHED
Mar 3, 2026 → Mar 4, 2026
Trades
1
Win Rate
100.0%
P&L
$0.96
Fees Paid
$0.48
Return
-99.0%
Started
$10,095
Crashed At
$96.89
Crash Reason: CAPITAL_EXHAUSTED

📖 Learning Tip: Look for patterns in the crash history. Did the strategy fail during high volatility? Extended trends? Specific market conditions? Understanding how strategies die helps you know when NOT to use them in real trading.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time (Era 46)

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay (Era 46)

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

🔄 Era 46 Trade History (Current) (since refund on Mar 4, 2026 - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $10,096.89 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:20pm ET $68,293.30 0 $96.89
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 6:40am ET $70,953.00 0 $100.66 $100.66 +$3.28
(+3.9%)
DEATH_CROSS
8.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 8:00am ET $71,345.00 0 $100.66
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 3:15pm ET $73,463.10 0 $103.65 $103.65 +$2.48
(+3.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
7.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
+ 45 refunds ($450,000)
Total Invested: $460,000.00
Ended with: $103.65
Net Profit/Loss: $-459,896.35
Total Return: -99.98%
Back to Grace Crossover