Compendium › Macro Monday › ISRG
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ISRG
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 3 trades in period

+2.32%
Last Year Return
$14,478.25
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$14,149.67
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:46:24

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

45
Lifetime
Confidence: 54%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
31.4/35
Total Return
13.8/25
Win Rate
15.0/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
8.3/10
Raw Quality 83.5/100
× Confidence 0.54 = 45.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (54%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
21,929
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
262 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$14,149.67
Current Value
$14,478.25
Period P&L
$328.58
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.73

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+2.14%
Worst Trade
-0.43%
Avg Trade Return
+0.77%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$86,614.00
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$328.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$328.58
Gross Return
+2.32%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.32%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 262 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $14,149.67 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:45am ET $495.55 29 $14,149.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $506.16 29 $14,452.67 $14,452.67 +$303.00
(+2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $492.75 29 $14,452.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $495.74 29 $14,540.37 $14,540.37 +$87.70
(+0.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 10:10am ET $482.18 30 $14,540.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $480.12 30 $14,478.25 $14,478.25 $-62.12
(-0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,478.25
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,478.25
Total Return: +44.78%
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