Compendium › Macro Monday › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 4 trades in period

+29.74%
Last 3 Months Return
$16,906.78
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$13,031.29
Period Start
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PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 07:42:07

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

44
Lifetime
Confidence: 60%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
10.0/15
Profit Factor
4.9/15
Consistency
8.2/10
Raw Quality 73.4/100
× Confidence 0.60 = 43.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (60%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,836
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,031.29
Current Value
$16,906.78
Period P&L
$3,875.49
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
1.44

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+12.05%
Worst Trade
-0.54%
Avg Trade Return
+6.83%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$122,591.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,875.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,875.49
Gross Return
+29.74%
Net Return (after fees)
+29.74%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $13,031.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET $345.18 38 $13,031.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $366.37 38 $13,831.06 $13,831.06 +$799.77
(+6.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET $376.27 37 $13,831.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $421.60 37 $15,497.32 $15,497.32 +$1,666.26
(+12.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET $415.50 37 $15,497.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $455.74 37 $16,998.19 $16,998.19 +$1,500.87
(+9.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET $517.91 33 $16,998.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $515.12 33 $16,906.78 $16,906.78 $-91.41
(-0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,906.78
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,906.78
Total Return: +69.07%
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