Compendium › Macro Monday › AMZN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AMZN
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 4 trades in period

+3.08%
Last 6 Months Return
$13,803.68
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$13,391.65
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:15:28

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.1 oversold
20d Trend
-18.5%
5d Trend
-17.4%
EMA20 Dist
-14.4%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

39
Lifetime
Confidence: 56%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
26.6/35
Total Return
13.2/25
Win Rate
13.1/15
Profit Factor
8.7/15
Consistency
7.8/10
Raw Quality 69.5/100
× Confidence 0.56 = 38.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (56%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,211
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,391.65
Current Value
$13,803.68
Period P&L
$412.03
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
—

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+7.26%
Worst Trade
-5.59%
Avg Trade Return
+0.86%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$105,587.99
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$412.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$412.03
Gross Return
+3.08%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.08%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AMZN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $13,391.65 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 10:00am ET $230.02 58 $13,391.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 3:55pm ET $217.15 58 $12,642.64 $12,642.64 $-749.01
(-5.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:00am ET $205.15 62 $12,642.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $207.89 62 $12,811.50 $12,811.50 +$168.86
(+1.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $204.31 63 $12,811.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $219.15 63 $13,742.19 $13,742.19 +$930.69
(+7.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:45am ET $208.95 66 $13,742.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $209.88 66 $13,803.68 $13,803.68 +$61.49
(+0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,803.68
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,803.68
Total Return: +38.04%
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