Compendium › Macro Monday › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 6 trades in period

+7.58%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,721.30
Current Value
83%
Win Rate
$10,895.88
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 06:32:33

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 68%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.1/35
Total Return
10.5/25
Win Rate
12.5/15
Profit Factor
4.7/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 46.4/100
× Confidence 0.68 = 31.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (68%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,743
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
131 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,895.88
Current Value
$11,721.30
Period P&L
$825.42
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
—

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
5 / 1
Best Trade
+5.26%
Worst Trade
-6.07%
Avg Trade Return
+1.29%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$132,222.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$825.42
Net P&L (after fees)
$825.42
Gross Return
+7.58%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.58%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 131 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $10,895.88 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 9:35am ET $350.68 31 $10,895.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 3:55pm ET $362.74 31 $11,270.59 $11,270.59 +$374.71
(+3.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:35am ET $341.11 33 $11,270.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $320.41 33 $10,586.64 $10,586.64 $-683.95
(-6.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $303.20 35 $10,586.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $307.43 35 $10,734.51 $10,734.51 +$147.87
(+1.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $294.11 36 $10,734.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $303.45 36 $11,075.22 $11,075.22 +$340.71
(+3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 10:45am ET $299.22 37 $11,075.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $300.85 37 $11,135.55 $11,135.55 +$60.33
(+0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $310.97 36 $11,135.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $327.33 36 $11,721.30 $11,721.30 +$585.75
(+5.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,721.30
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,721.30
Total Return: +17.21%
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