Compendium › Macro Monday › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 6 trades in period

+2.32%
Last 6 Months Return
$11,034.15
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,784.47
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-07 11:47:59

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.2/35
Total Return
8.8/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 28.2/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 20.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,497
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$10,784.47
Current Value
$11,034.15
Period P&L
$249.68
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
4.57

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
4 / 2
Best Trade
+6.40%
Worst Trade
-6.36%
Avg Trade Return
+0.49%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$129,135.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$249.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$249.68
Gross Return
+2.32%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.32%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $10,784.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $1,010.44 11 $10,784.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 3:55pm ET $1,042.68 11 $11,128.57 $11,128.57 +$344.10
(+3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET $1,053.92 11 $11,128.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 1:00pm ET $1,075.47 11 $11,356.12 $11,356.12 +$227.55
(+2.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 10:25am ET $1,037.38 11 $11,356.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $981.36 11 $10,742.87 $10,742.87 $-613.25
(-5.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 10:35am ET $980.38 11 $10,742.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 3:55pm ET $918.08 11 $10,060.14 $10,060.14 $-682.73
(-6.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $926.68 11 $10,060.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $955.28 11 $10,370.57 $10,370.57 +$310.43
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:35am ET $879.24 12 $10,370.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $935.50 12 $11,034.15 $11,034.15 +$663.58
(+6.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,034.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,034.15
Total Return: +10.34%
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