Compendium › Macro Monday › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 8 trades in period

+15.93%
Last 6 Months Return
$16,906.78
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$14,583.66
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:47:41

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

54
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
10.0/15
Profit Factor
4.9/15
Consistency
8.2/10
Raw Quality 73.4/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 54.5

30-Day Momentum

51
+22.2%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 82.7 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,311
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
132 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,583.66
Current Value
$16,906.78
Period P&L
$2,323.12
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
—

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
4 / 4
Best Trade
+12.05%
Worst Trade
-17.05%
Avg Trade Return
+2.29%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$221,757.03
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,323.12
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,323.12
Gross Return
+15.93%
Net Return (after fees)
+15.93%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 132 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $14,583.66 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $242.44 60 $14,583.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 2:55pm ET $201.10 60 $12,096.91 $12,096.91 $-2,486.75
(-17.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:50am ET $419.30 29 $12,096.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $414.09 29 $11,946.74 $11,946.74 $-150.17
(-1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 10:20am ET $402.79 30 $11,946.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $395.54 30 $11,731.79 $11,731.79 $-214.95
(-1.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $365.00 32 $11,731.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $405.43 32 $13,031.29 $13,031.29 +$1,299.50
(+11.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET $345.18 38 $13,031.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $366.37 38 $13,831.06 $13,831.06 +$799.77
(+6.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET $376.27 37 $13,831.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $421.60 37 $15,497.32 $15,497.32 +$1,666.26
(+12.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET $415.50 37 $15,497.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $455.74 37 $16,998.19 $16,998.19 +$1,500.87
(+9.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET $517.91 33 $16,998.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $515.12 33 $16,906.78 $16,906.78 $-91.41
(-0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,906.78
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,906.78
Total Return: +69.07%
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