Compendium › Macro Monday › TQQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TQQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 2 trades in period

+13.16%
Last 6 Months Return
$23,094.62
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$20,407.93
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:17:31

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

50
Lifetime
Confidence: 54%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
17.6/25
Win Rate
15.0/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
8.3/10
Raw Quality 90.9/100
× Confidence 0.54 = 49.5

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (54%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
16,633
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$20,407.93
Current Value
$23,094.62
Period P&L
$2,686.69
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
19.00

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
2 / 0
Best Trade
+6.72%
Worst Trade
+6.04%
Avg Trade Return
+6.38%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$86,785.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,686.69
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,686.69
Gross Return
+13.16%
Net Return (after fees)
+13.16%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $20,407.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $47.47 430 $20,407.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $50.34 430 $21,641.32 $21,641.32 +$1,233.39
(+6.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $46.31 467 $21,641.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $49.42 467 $23,094.62 $23,094.62 +$1,453.30
(+6.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $23,094.62
Net Profit/Loss: +$13,094.62
Total Return: +130.95%
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