Compendium › Macro Monday › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 15 trades executed

+18.02%
2 Years Return
$11,721.30
Current Value
79%
Win Rate
$9,931.77
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 06:32:21

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 68%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.1/35
Total Return
10.5/25
Win Rate
12.5/15
Profit Factor
4.7/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 46.4/100
× Confidence 0.68 = 31.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (68%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
44,837
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
520 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,931.77
Current Value
$11,721.30
Total P&L
$1,789.53
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.61

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
14
Winners / Losers
11 / 3
Best Trade
+5.26%
Worst Trade
-6.07%
Avg Trade Return
+1.24%
Avg Hold Time
1.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$296,856.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,789.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,789.53
Gross Return
+18.02%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.02%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 520 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $9,931.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $223.22 44 $9,931.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2024 3:55pm ET $231.07 44 $10,281.27 $10,281.27 +$349.50
(+3.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:35am ET $312.05 33 $10,281.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2025 3:55pm ET $315.80 33 $10,404.82 $10,404.82 +$123.55
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 10:30am ET $295.13 35 $10,404.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2025 3:55pm ET $293.31 35 $10,340.66 $10,340.66 $-64.16
(-0.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $265.42 39 $10,340.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2025 3:55pm ET $255.33 39 $9,947.56 $9,947.56 $-393.10
(-3.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2025 10:05am ET $262.54 38 $9,947.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2025 3:55pm ET $262.69 38 $9,953.24 $9,953.24 +$5.68
(+0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:40am ET $261.18 38 $9,953.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $270.48 38 $10,307.65 $10,307.65 +$354.41
(+3.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $223.71 46 $10,307.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 3:55pm ET $231.53 46 $10,667.96 $10,667.96 +$360.31
(+3.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $247.13 43 $10,667.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2025 3:55pm ET $252.41 43 $10,895.88 $10,895.88 +$227.92
(+2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 9:35am ET $350.68 31 $10,895.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 3:55pm ET $362.74 31 $11,270.59 $11,270.59 +$374.71
(+3.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:35am ET $341.11 33 $11,270.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 3:55pm ET $320.41 33 $10,586.64 $10,586.64 $-683.95
(-6.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $303.20 35 $10,586.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 3:55pm ET $307.43 35 $10,734.51 $10,734.51 +$147.87
(+1.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $294.11 36 $10,734.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $303.45 36 $11,075.22 $11,075.22 +$340.71
(+3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 10:45am ET $299.22 37 $11,075.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 3:55pm ET $300.85 37 $11,135.55 $11,135.55 +$60.33
(+0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $310.97 36 $11,135.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 3:55pm ET $327.33 36 $11,721.30 $11,721.30 +$585.75
(+5.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,721.30
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,721.30
Total Return: +17.21%
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