Compendium › Macro Monday › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 18 trades executed

+69.07%
2 Years Return
$16,906.78
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:47:40

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

54
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
10.0/15
Profit Factor
4.9/15
Consistency
8.2/10
Raw Quality 73.4/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 54.5

30-Day Momentum

51
+22.2%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 82.7 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
83,040
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
519 days
Data Gaps
2 days with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2024-11-29 (no data), 2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$16,906.78
Total P&L
$6,906.78
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.23

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
18
Winners / Losers
12 / 6
Best Trade
+18.30%
Worst Trade
-17.05%
Avg Trade Return
+3.34%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$463,394.94
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$6,906.78
Net P&L (after fees)
$6,906.78
Gross Return
+69.07%
Net Return (after fees)
+69.07%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 519 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $86.68 115 $10,000.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 8, 2024 3:55pm ET $92.08 115 $10,623.59 $10,623.59 +$623.59
(+6.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2024 10:35am ET $85.55 124 $10,623.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 12, 2024 3:55pm ET $87.22 124 $10,830.97 $10,830.97 +$207.38
(+2.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET $93.93 115 $10,830.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2025 3:55pm ET $102.59 115 $11,829.55 $11,829.55 +$998.58
(+9.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $88.16 134 $11,829.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $94.52 134 $12,683.67 $12,683.67 +$854.12
(+7.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 10:30am ET $97.50 130 $12,683.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2025 3:55pm ET $91.75 130 $11,936.27 $11,936.27 $-747.40
(-5.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $89.52 133 $11,936.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 3:55pm ET $94.90 133 $12,653.62 $12,653.62 +$717.35
(+6.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $84.88 149 $12,653.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $74.34 149 $11,082.35 $11,082.35 $-1,571.27
(-12.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $63.03 176 $11,082.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 3:55pm ET $70.05 176 $12,316.65 $12,316.65 +$1,234.30
(+11.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $66.07 186 $12,316.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 3:55pm ET $78.16 186 $14,570.45 $14,570.45 +$2,253.80
(+18.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2025 9:30am ET $77.21 189 $14,570.45 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $77.28 189 $14,583.66 $14,583.66 +$13.21
(+0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $242.44 60 $14,583.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 2:55pm ET $201.10 60 $12,096.91 $12,096.91 $-2,486.75
(-17.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:50am ET $419.30 29 $12,096.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $414.09 29 $11,946.74 $11,946.74 $-150.17
(-1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 10:20am ET $402.79 30 $11,946.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $395.54 30 $11,731.79 $11,731.79 $-214.95
(-1.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $365.00 32 $11,731.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $405.43 32 $13,031.29 $13,031.29 +$1,299.50
(+11.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET $345.18 38 $13,031.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $366.37 38 $13,831.06 $13,831.06 +$799.77
(+6.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET $376.27 37 $13,831.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $421.60 37 $15,497.32 $15,497.32 +$1,666.26
(+12.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET $415.50 37 $15,497.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $455.74 37 $16,998.19 $16,998.19 +$1,500.87
(+9.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET $517.91 33 $16,998.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $515.12 33 $16,906.78 $16,906.78 $-91.41
(-0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,906.78
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,906.78
Total Return: +69.07%
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