Compendium › Macro Monday › TMO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TMO
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 16:20:00+00 • 7 trades executed

-2.53%
2 Years Return
$9,746.60
Current Value
57%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:23:26

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
29.6 oversold
20d Trend
-10.0%
5d Trend
-6.7%
EMA20 Dist
-7.6%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
48%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

48
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
84.0/35
Total Return
72.9/25
Win Rate
63.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.8/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 47.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
41,137
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
506 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$9,746.60
Total P&L
$-253.40
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.51

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
7
Winners / Losers
4 / 3
Best Trade
+3.81%
Worst Trade
-4.53%
Avg Trade Return
-0.33%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$135,067.43
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-253.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$-253.40
Gross Return
-2.53%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.53%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TMO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 506 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:35am ET $602.99 17 $10,000.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 8, 2024 3:55pm ET $600.21 17 $9,953.90 $9,953.90 $-46.10
(-0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $492.45 20 $9,953.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $470.15 20 $9,503.15 $9,503.15 $-450.75
(-4.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $426.82 22 $9,503.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 3:55pm ET $427.10 22 $9,509.38 $9,509.38 +$6.23
(+0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $423.41 22 $9,509.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 3:55pm ET $426.43 22 $9,577.21 $9,577.21 +$67.83
(+0.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:40am ET $510.85 19 $9,577.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $518.88 19 $9,727.81 $9,727.81 +$150.60
(+1.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:50am ET $494.80 20 $9,727.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $477.57 20 $9,388.97 $9,388.97 $-338.84
(-3.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:50am ET $482.54 19 $9,388.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $500.92 19 $9,746.60 $9,746.60 +$357.63
(+3.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,746.60
Net Profit/Loss: $-253.40
Total Return: -2.53%
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