Compendium › Macro Monday › MU
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MU
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 7 trades in period

+39.76%
Year to Date Return
$16,906.78
Current Value
57%
Win Rate
$12,096.91
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:47:38

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

54
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
10.0/15
Profit Factor
4.9/15
Consistency
8.2/10
Raw Quality 73.4/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 54.5

30-Day Momentum

51
+22.2%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 82.7 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,474
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,096.91
Current Value
$16,906.78
Period P&L
$4,809.87
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.89

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
4 / 3
Best Trade
+12.05%
Worst Trade
-1.80%
Avg Trade Return
+5.05%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$195,076.47
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,809.87
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,809.87
Gross Return
+39.76%
Net Return (after fees)
+39.76%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $12,096.91 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:50am ET $419.30 29 $12,096.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $414.09 29 $11,946.74 $11,946.74 $-150.17
(-1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 10:20am ET $402.79 30 $11,946.74 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $395.54 30 $11,731.79 $11,731.79 $-214.95
(-1.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $365.00 32 $11,731.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $405.43 32 $13,031.29 $13,031.29 +$1,299.50
(+11.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET $345.18 38 $13,031.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $366.37 38 $13,831.06 $13,831.06 +$799.77
(+6.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET $376.27 37 $13,831.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $421.60 37 $15,497.32 $15,497.32 +$1,666.26
(+12.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:40am ET $415.50 37 $15,497.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $455.74 37 $16,998.19 $16,998.19 +$1,500.87
(+9.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:55am ET $517.91 33 $16,998.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $515.12 33 $16,906.78 $16,906.78 $-91.41
(-0.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,906.78
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,906.78
Total Return: +69.07%
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