Compendium › Macro Monday › HD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
HD
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 16 trades executed

+14.12%
2 Years Return
$11,142.78
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$9,764.16
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 04:26:13

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
58.5 neutral
20d Trend
+2.0%
5d Trend
+2.1%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
82%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.0/35
Total Return
9.1/25
Win Rate
8.4/15
Profit Factor
1.9/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 32.4/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 23.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
46,677
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
524 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$9,764.16
Current Value
$11,142.78
Total P&L
$1,378.62
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.57

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
15
Winners / Losers
10 / 5
Best Trade
+5.17%
Worst Trade
-7.55%
Avg Trade Return
+0.95%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$337,017.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,378.62
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,378.62
Gross Return
+14.12%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.12%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 HD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 524 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $9,764.16 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:35am ET $348.25 28 $9,764.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 8, 2024 3:55pm ET $348.56 28 $9,772.99 $9,772.99 +$8.83
(+0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2024 9:30am ET $344.78 28 $9,772.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 15, 2024 3:55pm ET $360.36 28 $10,214.61 $10,214.61 +$441.62
(+4.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 10:55am ET $389.87 26 $10,214.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2025 3:55pm ET $409.42 26 $10,726.82 $10,726.82 +$512.21
(+5.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $405.74 26 $10,726.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $414.14 26 $10,948.80 $10,948.80 +$221.98
(+2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 9:35am ET $379.52 29 $10,948.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2025 3:55pm ET $390.55 29 $11,267.01 $11,267.01 +$318.21
(+2.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $336.41 33 $11,267.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 3:55pm ET $353.28 33 $11,832.19 $11,832.19 +$565.18
(+5.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $352.12 34 $11,832.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 3:55pm ET $359.61 34 $12,083.87 $12,083.87 +$251.68
(+2.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY May 5, 2025 9:40am ET $360.43 34 $12,083.87 — — —
🔴 SELL May 8, 2025 3:55pm ET $364.81 34 $12,230.72 $12,230.72 +$146.85
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 10:35am ET $359.60 34 $12,230.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 3:55pm ET $332.44 34 $11,307.11 $11,307.11 $-923.61
(-7.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 9:40am ET $339.37 33 $11,307.11 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 1:00pm ET $356.92 33 $11,891.84 $11,891.84 +$584.73
(+5.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:45am ET $376.18 32 $11,891.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $375.48 32 $11,869.71 $11,869.71 $-22.13
(-0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $374.97 32 $11,869.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $362.98 32 $11,490.32 $11,490.32 $-379.39
(-3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $350.36 33 $11,490.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $339.77 33 $11,143.12 $11,143.12 $-347.20
(-3.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET $332.94 33 $11,143.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $336.92 33 $11,276.33 $11,276.33 +$133.21
(+1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:35am ET $333.51 34 $11,276.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $329.56 34 $11,142.78 $11,142.78 $-133.55
(-1.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,142.78
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,142.78
Total Return: +11.43%
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