Compendium › Macro Monday › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 18 trades executed

+10.34%
2 Years Return
$11,034.15
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-07 04:53:50

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 74%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.2/35
Total Return
8.8/25
Win Rate
5.8/15
Profit Factor
1.0/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 28.2/100
× Confidence 0.74 = 20.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (74%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
52,806
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
529 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$11,034.15
Total P&L
$1,034.15
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.20

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
18
Winners / Losers
10 / 8
Best Trade
+11.58%
Worst Trade
-8.73%
Avg Trade Return
+0.69%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$396,367.61
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,034.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,034.15
Gross Return
+10.34%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.34%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 529 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $757.23 13 $10,000.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 8, 2024 3:55pm ET $844.95 13 $11,158.43 $11,158.43 +$1,158.43
(+11.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2024 10:30am ET $902.51 12 $11,158.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 12, 2024 3:55pm ET $935.61 12 $11,567.67 $11,567.67 +$409.24
(+3.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2024 9:30am ET $810.20 14 $11,567.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2024 3:55pm ET $797.54 14 $11,386.92 $11,386.92 $-180.75
(-1.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 9:50am ET $787.21 14 $11,386.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2025 3:55pm ET $758.26 14 $10,968.16 $10,968.16 $-418.76
(-3.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:55am ET $806.53 14 $10,968.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $870.99 14 $11,844.76 $11,844.76 +$876.60
(+8.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $857.72 14 $11,844.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 3:55pm ET $798.01 14 $11,020.17 $11,020.17 $-824.59
(-7.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $797.65 14 $11,020.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $788.94 14 $10,899.90 $10,899.90 $-120.27
(-1.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $698.36 16 $10,899.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 3:55pm ET $720.02 16 $11,237.97 $11,237.97 +$338.07
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $830.81 14 $11,237.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 3:55pm ET $860.36 14 $11,637.68 $11,637.68 +$399.71
(+3.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2025 9:30am ET $870.05 13 $11,637.68 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $794.07 13 $10,621.38 $10,621.38 $-1,016.30
(-8.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 23, 2025 10:30am ET $775.84 14 $10,621.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 26, 2025 3:55pm ET $794.80 14 $10,880.95 $10,880.95 +$259.57
(+2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Oct 13, 2025 10:10am ET $826.67 13 $10,880.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 16, 2025 3:55pm ET $819.34 13 $10,784.47 $10,784.47 $-96.48
(-0.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $1,010.44 11 $10,784.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 3:55pm ET $1,042.68 11 $11,128.57 $11,128.57 +$344.10
(+3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 10:00am ET $1,053.92 11 $11,128.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 1:00pm ET $1,075.47 11 $11,356.12 $11,356.12 +$227.55
(+2.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 10:25am ET $1,037.38 11 $11,356.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $981.36 11 $10,742.87 $10,742.87 $-613.25
(-5.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 10:35am ET $980.38 11 $10,742.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 3:55pm ET $918.08 11 $10,060.14 $10,060.14 $-682.73
(-6.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $926.68 11 $10,060.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $955.28 11 $10,370.57 $10,370.57 +$310.43
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:35am ET $879.24 12 $10,370.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $935.50 12 $11,034.15 $11,034.15 +$663.58
(+6.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,034.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,034.15
Total Return: +10.34%
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