Compendium › Macro Monday › NVDA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NVDA
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 15 trades executed

+71.04%
2 Years Return
$17,103.61
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 04:23:11

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

42
Lifetime
Confidence: 56%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
15.4/25
Win Rate
10.0/15
Profit Factor
7.1/15
Consistency
7.8/10
Raw Quality 75.3/100
× Confidence 0.56 = 41.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (56%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
88,622
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$17,103.61
Total P&L
$7,103.61
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.46

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
15
Winners / Losers
10 / 5
Best Trade
+22.08%
Worst Trade
-9.44%
Avg Trade Return
+3.97%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$421,807.22
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$7,103.61
Net P&L (after fees)
$7,103.61
Gross Return
+71.04%
Net Return (after fees)
+71.04%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $94.04 106 $10,000.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 8, 2024 3:55pm ET $105.22 106 $11,188.86 $11,188.86 +$1,188.86
(+11.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2024 10:55am ET $103.84 108 $11,188.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 12, 2024 3:55pm ET $119.18 108 $12,841.87 $12,841.87 +$1,653.01
(+14.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET $130.95 98 $12,841.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2025 3:55pm ET $133.57 98 $13,099.31 $13,099.31 +$257.44
(+2.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $114.41 114 $13,099.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $128.69 114 $14,733.72 $14,733.72 +$1,634.41
(+12.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 10:30am ET $132.52 111 $14,733.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2025 3:55pm ET $120.01 111 $13,342.84 $13,342.84 $-1,390.88
(-9.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2025 9:55am ET $119.00 112 $13,342.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $110.58 112 $12,398.75 $12,398.75 $-944.09
(-7.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:35am ET $110.37 112 $12,398.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 3:55pm ET $115.71 112 $12,998.64 $12,998.64 +$599.89
(+4.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2025 10:30am ET $119.61 109 $12,998.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2025 3:55pm ET $118.47 109 $12,874.39 $12,874.39 $-124.25
(-1.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $104.49 123 $12,874.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $101.79 123 $12,541.10 $12,541.10 $-333.29
(-2.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $88.22 142 $12,541.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 3:55pm ET $107.70 142 $15,310.32 $15,310.32 +$2,769.22
(+22.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $99.04 155 $15,310.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 3:55pm ET $106.38 155 $16,445.67 $16,445.67 +$1,135.35
(+7.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2025 9:30am ET $108.67 151 $16,445.67 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 3:55pm ET $111.53 151 $16,878.29 $16,878.29 +$432.62
(+2.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $186.83 90 $16,878.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 3:55pm ET $180.91 90 $16,343.48 $16,343.48 $-534.81
(-3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 9:45am ET $176.86 92 $16,343.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 1:00pm ET $176.98 92 $16,354.57 $16,354.57 +$11.09
(+0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $174.89 94 $16,354.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $182.90 94 $17,103.61 $17,103.61 +$749.04
(+4.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $17,103.61
Net Profit/Loss: +$7,103.61
Total Return: +71.04%
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