Compendium › Macro Monday › VTI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
VTI
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 7 trades executed

+14.96%
2 Years Return
$11,496.15
Current Value
71%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:48:05

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
36.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.9%
5d Trend
-2.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
84.0/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
80.4/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
83.3/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
49,788
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
531 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$11,496.15
Total P&L
$1,496.15
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.64

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
7
Winners / Losers
5 / 2
Best Trade
+7.50%
Worst Trade
-2.85%
Avg Trade Return
+2.07%
Avg Hold Time
3.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$149,154.28
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,496.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,496.15
Gross Return
+14.96%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.96%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 VTI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 531 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $252.12 40 $10,000.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 8, 2024 3:55pm ET $261.79 40 $10,383.55 $10,383.55 +$383.55
(+3.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:45am ET $293.67 35 $10,383.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2025 3:55pm ET $300.72 35 $10,632.82 $10,632.82 +$249.27
(+2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:50am ET $279.04 38 $10,632.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2025 3:55pm ET $271.09 38 $10,329.89 $10,329.89 $-302.93
(-2.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:40am ET $269.01 38 $10,329.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 3, 2025 3:55pm ET $263.90 38 $10,133.67 $10,133.67 $-196.22
(-1.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $239.35 42 $10,133.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 3:55pm ET $257.31 42 $10,894.07 $10,894.07 +$760.40
(+7.5%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $255.75 43 $10,894.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 3:55pm ET $268.92 43 $11,455.07 $11,455.07 +$561.00
(+5.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:45am ET $327.08 35 $11,455.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 3:55pm ET $328.26 35 $11,496.15 $11,496.15 +$41.08
(+0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,496.15
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,496.15
Total Return: +14.96%
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