Compendium › Macro Monday › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Macro Monday's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 13 trades executed

+56.33%
2 Years Return
$15,632.76
Current Value
77%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:44:10

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

54
Lifetime
Confidence: 63%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
14.6/25
Win Rate
13.9/15
Profit Factor
15.0/15
Consistency
7.8/10
Raw Quality 86.2/100
× Confidence 0.63 = 53.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (63%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
56,850
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
525 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$15,632.76
Total P&L
$5,632.76
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.75

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
13
Winners / Losers
10 / 3
Best Trade
+16.29%
Worst Trade
-1.92%
Avg Trade Return
+3.58%
Avg Hold Time
2.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$327,613.65
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$5,632.76
Net P&L (after fees)
$5,632.76
Gross Return
+56.33%
Net Return (after fees)
+56.33%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 525 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Macro Monday had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $96.38 104 $10,000.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2024 3:55pm ET $98.67 104 $10,237.08 $10,237.08 +$237.08
(+2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2024 10:55am ET $102.34 100 $10,237.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 11, 2024 3:55pm ET $108.69 100 $10,872.02 $10,872.02 +$634.94
(+6.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET $112.68 96 $10,872.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 15, 2025 3:55pm ET $116.14 96 $11,206.36 $11,206.36 +$334.34
(+3.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET $112.88 99 $11,206.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2025 3:55pm ET $117.11 99 $11,625.80 $11,625.80 +$419.44
(+3.7%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2025 10:00am ET $116.02 100 $11,625.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2025 3:55pm ET $115.50 100 $11,573.69 $11,573.69 $-52.11
(-0.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2025 9:30am ET $106.66 109 $11,573.69 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2025 3:55pm ET $105.85 109 $11,485.79 $11,485.79 $-87.90
(-0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $100.71 114 $11,485.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2025 3:55pm ET $104.73 114 $11,944.29 $11,944.29 +$458.50
(+4.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $87.64 136 $11,944.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2025 3:55pm ET $101.92 136 $13,890.48 $13,890.48 +$1,946.19
(+16.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $95.06 146 $13,890.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 3:55pm ET $98.95 146 $14,460.03 $14,460.03 +$569.55
(+4.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $143.25 101 $14,460.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 19, 2025 3:55pm ET $140.50 101 $14,182.43 $14,182.43 $-277.60
(-1.9%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $136.68 104 $14,182.43 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 3:55pm ET $139.96 104 $14,522.24 $14,522.24 +$339.81
(+2.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $136.07 107 $14,522.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 3:55pm ET $140.46 107 $14,990.23 $14,990.23 +$467.99
(+3.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:30am ET $129.30 116 $14,990.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 3:55pm ET $134.84 116 $15,632.76 $15,632.76 +$642.53
(+4.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,632.76
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,632.76
Total Return: +56.33%
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