Compendium › Marcus Calm Sea › AXP
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AXP
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Calm Sea's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 15 trades executed

+12.11%
2 Years Return
$13,274.72
Current Value
56%
Win Rate
$11,841.32
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 06:30:01

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored Apr 2, 2026

25
Lifetime
Confidence: 46%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
22.9/35
Total Return
12.7/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
4.8/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 54.3/100
× Confidence 0.46 = 25.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (46%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
44,837
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
520 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,841.32
Current Value
$13,274.72
Total P&L
$1,433.40
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.36

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
9
Winners / Losers
5 / 4
Best Trade
+5.60%
Worst Trade
-3.31%
Avg Trade Return
+1.50%
Avg Hold Time
15d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$223,951.02
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,433.40
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,433.40
Gross Return
+12.11%
Net Return (after fees)
+12.11%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 520 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Calm Sea had $11,841.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 3, 2024 9:30am ET $231.35 50 $11,567.50 — — —
🔴 SELL May 13, 2024 9:40am ET $243.00 50 $12,150.00 $12,288.32 +$582.50
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY May 14, 2024 11:40am ET $240.16 51 $12,248.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2024 12:45pm ET $232.94 51 $11,879.69 $11,919.84 $-368.48
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2024 9:30am ET $231.25 51 $11,793.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2024 2:00pm ET $224.10 51 $11,429.10 $11,555.19 $-364.65
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 14, 2024 9:45am ET $221.69 52 $11,527.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2024 9:50am ET $232.77 52 $12,104.04 $12,131.61 +$576.42
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 25, 2024 9:50am ET $230.13 52 $11,966.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 15, 2024 9:30am ET $242.09 52 $12,588.42 $12,753.27 +$621.66
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2024 1:15pm ET $288.23 44 $12,682.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2024 9:30am ET $304.36 44 $13,391.84 $13,462.99 +$709.72
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2024 10:30am ET $302.35 44 $13,303.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2024 3:30pm ET $293.12 44 $12,897.28 $13,056.87 $-406.12
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Aug 22, 2025 2:45pm ET $319.16 40 $12,766.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2025 9:55am ET $335.64 40 $13,425.60 $13,716.07 +$659.20
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 9:40am ET $381.01 35 $13,335.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET $368.40 35 $12,894.00 $13,274.72 $-441.35
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,274.72
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,274.72
Total Return: +32.75%
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