Compendium › Marcus Calm Sea › XLE
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLE
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Calm Sea's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 13 trades executed

+7.98%
2 Years Return
$12,376.18
Current Value
71%
Win Rate
$11,461.43
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-07 06:29:58

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2

Strategy Score Scored Apr 5, 2026

24
Lifetime
Confidence: 45%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
16.6/35
Total Return
11.6/25
Win Rate
11.0/15
Profit Factor
5.2/15
Consistency
7.8/10
Raw Quality 52.1/100
× Confidence 0.45 = 23.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (45%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
59,335
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
532 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,461.43
Current Value
$12,376.18
Total P&L
$914.77
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.44

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
7
Winners / Losers
5 / 2
Best Trade
+6.12%
Worst Trade
-3.23%
Avg Trade Return
+1.48%
Avg Hold Time
21d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$162,703.91
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$914.77
Net P&L (after fees)
$914.77
Gross Return
+7.98%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.98%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 532 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Calm Sea had $11,461.43 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 3, 2024 9:30am ET $45.81 244 $11,177.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2024 9:30am ET $46.21 244 $11,275.24 $11,313.80 +$97.60
(+0.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2024 9:30am ET $44.58 253 $11,279.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 5, 2024 9:30am ET $45.53 253 $11,519.09 $11,552.94 +$239.14
(+2.1%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2024 11:40am ET $44.63 258 $11,515.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 17, 2024 10:00am ET $46.88 258 $12,095.04 $12,132.79 +$579.86
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2024 9:40am ET $46.81 259 $12,123.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2024 9:40am ET $45.30 259 $11,732.70 $11,741.70 $-391.09
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2024 9:40am ET $45.20 259 $11,705.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 16, 2024 1:10pm ET $43.83 259 $11,352.62 $11,388.82 $-352.89
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 28, 2025 9:30am ET $44.49 255 $11,344.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 29, 2025 9:30am ET $45.57 255 $11,620.99 $11,664.85 +$276.04
(+2.4%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 9:30am ET $44.37 262 $11,624.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $47.09 262 $12,336.27 $12,376.18 +$711.33
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,376.18
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,376.18
Total Return: +23.76%
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