Compendium › Marcus Credit Crisis › XLK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
XLK
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Credit Crisis's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-07 to present • 3 trades in period

-0.47%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,123.11
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$9,166.64
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-07 07:46:30

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.1 neutral
20d Trend
-8.0%
5d Trend
-6.2%
EMA20 Dist
-5.6%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 72%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 5.0/100
× Confidence 0.72 = 3.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (72%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,448
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,166.64
Current Value
$9,123.11
Period P&L
$-43.53
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.02

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+5.85%
Worst Trade
-3.06%
Avg Trade Return
-0.08%
Avg Hold Time
4.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$52,660.10
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-43.53
Net P&L (after fees)
$-43.53
Gross Return
-0.47%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.47%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XLK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Credit Crisis had $9,166.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 11:40am ET $139.23 65 $9,049.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 2:50pm ET $134.97 65 $8,773.05 $8,889.74 $-276.90
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $137.20 64 $8,780.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 1:55pm ET $133.06 64 $8,515.84 $8,624.78 $-264.96
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $135.26 63 $8,521.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $143.16 63 $9,019.39 $9,123.11 +$498.33
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,123.11
Net Profit/Loss: $-876.89
Total Return: -8.77%
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