Compendium › Marcus Credit Crisis › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Credit Crisis's Analysis

to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 22 trades executed

+34.30%
2 Years Return
$16,036.19
Current Value
59%
Win Rate
$11,940.81
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-07 05:20:16

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

50
Lifetime
Confidence: 69%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
14.9/25
Win Rate
8.9/15
Profit Factor
7.0/15
Consistency
7.1/10
Raw Quality 72.9/100
× Confidence 0.69 = 50.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (69%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
78,154
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$11,940.81
Current Value
$16,036.19
Total P&L
$4,095.38
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.42

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
17
Winners / Losers
10 / 7
Best Trade
+12.43%
Worst Trade
-5.97%
Avg Trade Return
+2.11%
Avg Hold Time
9.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$448,082.88
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,095.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,095.38
Gross Return
+34.30%
Net Return (after fees)
+34.30%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Credit Crisis had $11,940.81 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 19, 2024 3:00pm ET $398.93 28 $11,170.04 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2024 9:30am ET $419.33 28 $11,741.10 $12,094.67 +$571.06
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2024 11:10am ET $445.28 27 $12,022.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 5, 2024 1:20pm ET $467.70 27 $12,627.77 $12,699.87 +$605.21
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jul 31, 2024 12:35pm ET $414.59 30 $12,437.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET $389.82 30 $11,694.45 $11,956.77 $-743.10
(-6.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Aug 6, 2024 2:00pm ET $403.52 29 $11,701.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 20, 2024 12:50pm ET $423.89 29 $12,292.81 $12,547.59 +$590.82
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 21, 2024 3:40pm ET $422.98 29 $12,266.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 28, 2024 10:55am ET $409.72 29 $11,881.88 $12,163.05 $-384.54
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 3, 2024 10:50am ET $413.18 29 $11,982.22 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 17, 2024 9:30am ET $438.26 29 $12,709.54 $12,890.37 +$727.32
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2025 11:20am ET $380.42 33 $12,553.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET $368.69 33 $12,166.77 $12,503.28 $-387.09
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2025 2:00pm ET $379.01 32 $12,128.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET $366.04 32 $11,713.28 $12,088.24 $-415.04
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET $349.86 34 $11,895.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 9:30am ET $370.53 34 $12,597.85 $12,790.85 +$702.61
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 10:10am ET $378.99 33 $12,506.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2025 3:55pm ET $367.60 33 $12,130.80 $12,415.15 $-375.71
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2025 1:20pm ET $363.97 34 $12,374.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2025 10:20am ET $382.29 34 $12,997.86 $13,038.03 +$622.88
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2025 11:45am ET $387.61 33 $12,791.13 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2025 9:30am ET $435.78 33 $14,380.74 $14,627.64 +$1,589.61
(+12.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
13 🟢 BUY May 5, 2025 1:55pm ET $437.96 33 $14,452.52 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2025 10:00am ET $459.94 33 $15,177.86 $15,352.98 +$725.34
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
14 🟢 BUY May 23, 2025 10:00am ET $450.49 34 $15,316.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 6, 2025 10:10am ET $473.10 34 $16,085.40 $16,121.72 +$768.74
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 10:55am ET $399.80 40 $15,992.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 1:10pm ET $387.62 40 $15,504.94 $15,634.66 $-487.06
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET $382.57 40 $15,302.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 11:15am ET $370.56 40 $14,822.40 $15,154.46 $-480.20
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET $363.18 41 $14,890.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $384.69 41 $15,772.29 $16,036.19 +$881.73
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,036.19
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,036.19
Total Return: +60.36%
Back to Marcus Credit Crisis