Compendium › Marcus Fed Whisperer › CVX
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
CVX
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Fed Whisperer's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-25 to present • 4 trades in period

-4.11%
Last Month Return
$12,128.03
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$12,647.42
Period Start
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PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-25 05:10:12

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
12
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 2.8
Active
RSI(14)
71.5 overbought
20d Trend
+9.1%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
+4.3%
ATR%
2.0%
Range Pos
90%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 77%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
14.9/35
Total Return
11.2/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 36.8/100
× Confidence 0.77 = 28.3

30-Day Momentum

1
-6.8%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (77%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,638
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-26 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
21 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$12,647.42
Current Value
$12,128.03
Period P&L
$-519.37
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.42

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+5.06%
Worst Trade
-5.24%
Avg Trade Return
-1.67%
Avg Hold Time
6.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$101,050.86
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-519.37
Net P&L (after fees)
$-519.37
Gross Return
-4.11%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.11%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CVX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 21 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Fed Whisperer had $12,647.42 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 11:35am ET $194.39 66 $12,829.74 — — —
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 10:15am ET $188.19 66 $12,420.54 $12,599.55 $-409.20
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
2 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 10:15am ET $181.52 69 $12,524.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 11:35am ET $190.71 69 $13,158.99 $13,233.66 +$634.11
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 3:35pm ET $188.80 70 $13,216.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $178.90 70 $12,523.00 $12,540.66 $-693.00
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $179.64 69 $12,395.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 9:40am ET $173.66 69 $11,982.54 $12,128.03 $-412.63
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,128.03
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,128.03
Total Return: +21.28%
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