MARA Marcus Grave Dancer's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-06-23 to present • 45 trades in period
+7.64%
Last Year Return
$9,020.42
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$8,380.06
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
16.8
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.46%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.66
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟡 1.2
Unsettled
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.0/10
Raw Quality
3.0/100
× Confidence 0.96
= 2.9
30-Day Momentum
0
-1.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0
Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
36,855
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-06-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$8,380.06
Current Value
$9,020.42
Period P&L
$640.39
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.06
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
45
Winners / Losers
18 /
27
Best Trade
+8.24%
Worst Trade
-4.75%
Avg Trade Return
+0.26%
Avg Hold Time
22.3h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$883,559.91
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$640.39
Net P&L (after fees)
$640.39
Gross Return
+7.64%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.64%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 45 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Grave Dancer had $8,380.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $13.77 | 608 | $8,371.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 24, 2025 9:35am ET | $14.55 | 608 | $8,845.67 | $8,854.09 |
+$474.06 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $16.85 | 525 | $8,845.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 7, 2025 2:20pm ET | $16.32 | 525 | $8,568.26 | $8,576.47 |
$-277.62 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $17.71 | 484 | $8,571.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2025 2:10pm ET | $17.05 | 484 | $8,252.20 | $8,257.03 |
$-319.44 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2025 9:40am ET | $16.77 | 492 | $8,251.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 30, 2025 9:35am ET | $17.74 | 492 | $8,728.08 | $8,733.73 |
+$476.70 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.47 | 564 | $8,723.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $16.45 | 564 | $9,274.98 | $9,285.10 |
+$551.37 (+6.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2025 9:50am ET | $14.54 | 638 | $9,274.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 1:40pm ET | $15.29 | 638 | $9,751.83 | $9,762.19 |
+$477.10 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.27 | 639 | $9,757.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2025 9:50am ET | $16.07 | 639 | $10,268.73 | $10,273.39 |
+$511.20 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $17.19 | 597 | $10,262.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 22, 2025 2:15pm ET | $18.08 | 597 | $10,793.76 | $10,804.72 |
+$531.33 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $16.85 | 641 | $10,797.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 25, 2025 1:15pm ET | $16.29 | 641 | $10,441.89 | $10,448.97 |
$-355.76 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $19.95 | 523 | $10,433.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 1:00pm ET | $19.31 | 523 | $10,096.52 | $10,111.63 |
$-337.34 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $19.32 | 523 | $10,104.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 14, 2025 10:10am ET | $20.43 | 523 | $10,686.15 | $10,693.42 |
+$581.79 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2025 9:40am ET | $22.10 | 483 | $10,671.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 11:40am ET | $21.39 | 483 | $10,328.96 | $10,350.49 |
$-342.93 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 2:35pm ET | $18.17 | 569 | $10,335.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 3, 2025 10:30am ET | $17.52 | 569 | $9,968.88 | $9,983.48 |
$-367.01 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.23 | 655 | $9,972.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $16.48 | 655 | $10,794.40 | $10,805.51 |
+$822.03 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $15.01 | 719 | $10,791.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 11, 2025 3:30pm ET | $14.50 | 719 | $10,427.73 | $10,441.55 |
$-363.96 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $12.32 | 847 | $10,435.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $11.92 | 847 | $10,092.01 | $10,097.58 |
$-343.97 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:55am ET | $11.10 | 910 | $10,096.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:05pm ET | $10.73 | 910 | $9,765.48 | $9,766.62 |
$-330.97 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:40am ET | $10.69 | 913 | $9,759.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 9:35am ET | $11.27 | 913 | $10,289.42 | $10,296.07 |
+$529.45 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $11.08 | 929 | $10,288.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 1, 2025 10:25am ET | $10.72 | 929 | $9,958.88 | $9,966.27 |
$-329.79 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 9:35am ET | $12.02 | 829 | $9,961.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 5, 2025 2:00pm ET | $11.66 | 829 | $9,662.00 | $9,667.17 |
$-299.10 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $11.46 | 843 | $9,656.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 9:35am ET | $12.10 | 843 | $10,196.17 | $10,206.77 |
+$539.60 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 9:35am ET | $11.20 | 911 | $10,198.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:50am ET | $10.84 | 911 | $9,870.69 | $9,878.81 |
$-327.96 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 17, 2025 11:10am ET | $10.23 | 965 | $9,871.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 11:55am ET | $9.92 | 965 | $9,572.80 | $9,579.66 |
$-299.15 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.40 | 921 | $9,573.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $10.95 | 921 | $10,084.12 | $10,089.99 |
+$510.33 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.22 | 987 | $10,087.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 11:15am ET | $9.91 | 987 | $9,776.24 | $9,778.98 |
$-311.00 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $9.85 | 993 | $9,778.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:55am ET | $9.55 | 993 | $9,478.19 | $9,478.60 |
$-300.38 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 1:20pm ET | $8.78 | 1,079 | $9,469.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.49 | 1,079 | $9,155.85 | $9,164.61 |
$-313.99 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:55am ET | $7.66 | 1,195 | $9,159.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET | $7.30 | 1,195 | $8,724.70 | $8,729.63 |
$-434.98 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.82 | 1,115 | $8,724.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $8.30 | 1,115 | $9,248.93 | $9,253.68 |
+$524.05 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.46 | 1,240 | $9,250.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 11:05am ET | $7.87 | 1,240 | $9,758.80 | $9,762.21 |
+$508.52 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:45am ET | $7.54 | 1,294 | $9,756.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2026 2:55pm ET | $7.92 | 1,294 | $10,248.61 | $10,254.06 |
+$491.85 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.60 | 1,191 | $10,248.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $9.06 | 1,191 | $10,790.46 | $10,795.97 |
+$541.91 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $8.94 | 1,207 | $10,790.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET | $8.66 | 1,207 | $10,452.62 | $10,458.01 |
$-337.96 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $8.29 | 1,261 | $10,453.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:15pm ET | $7.99 | 1,261 | $10,069.09 | $10,073.28 |
$-384.73 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $8.64 | 1,165 | $10,065.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 2:10pm ET | $9.07 | 1,165 | $10,572.37 | $10,580.05 |
+$506.77 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $8.56 | 1,235 | $10,571.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 24, 2026 1:05pm ET | $8.29 | 1,235 | $10,238.15 | $10,246.60 |
$-333.45 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $8.19 | 1,250 | $10,243.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $7.92 | 1,250 | $9,900.00 | $9,902.85 |
$-343.75 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $7.79 | 1,271 | $9,901.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.26 | 1,271 | $10,492.11 | $10,493.87 |
+$591.02 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET | $8.59 | 1,222 | $10,490.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 10:45am ET | $8.32 | 1,222 | $10,173.15 | $10,176.15 |
$-317.72 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $10.77 | 944 | $10,166.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET | $10.39 | 944 | $9,808.07 | $9,817.34 |
$-358.81 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.83 | 765 | $9,814.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2026 10:25am ET | $12.37 | 765 | $9,463.05 | $9,465.44 |
$-351.90 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | May 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.47 | 759 | $9,464.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $12.02 | 759 | $9,119.39 | $9,120.10 |
$-345.34 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | May 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $13.77 | 662 | $9,119.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2026 1:35pm ET | $14.50 | 662 | $9,599.00 | $9,600.05 |
+$479.95 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2026 9:40am ET | $13.38 | 717 | $9,593.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET | $12.98 | 717 | $9,303.08 | $9,309.67 |
$-290.38 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2026 11:25am ET | $13.34 | 697 | $9,297.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2026 12:05pm ET | $12.93 | 697 | $9,008.73 | $9,020.42 |
$-289.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,020.42
Net Profit/Loss:
$-979.58
Total Return:
-9.80%