NVDA Marcus Grave Dancer's Analysis
to 2026-05-06 13:40:00+00 • 31 trades executed
+100.77%
2 Years Return
$18,220.54
Current Value
68%
Win Rate
$9,075.11
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-9.7%
5d Trend
-7.1%
EMA20 Dist
-5.9%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored Apr 27, 2026
40
Lifetime
Confidence: 54%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
16.0/25
Win Rate
8.0/15
Profit Factor
9.1/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality
74.3/100
× Confidence 0.54
= 39.9
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (54%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
88,626
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
536 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$9,075.11
Current Value
$18,220.54
Total P&L
$9,145.44
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.58
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
28
Winners / Losers
19 /
9
Best Trade
+7.72%
Worst Trade
-6.06%
Avg Trade Return
+2.63%
Avg Hold Time
2.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$645,497.34
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$9,145.44
Net P&L (after fees)
$9,145.44
Gross Return
+100.77%
Net Return (after fees)
+100.77%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 NVDA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 536 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Grave Dancer had $9,075.11 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 20, 2024 12:30pm ET | $132.57 | 68 | $9,014.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 21, 2024 9:30am ET | $128.45 | 68 | $8,734.85 | $8,795.41 |
$-279.70 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 24, 2024 9:45am ET | $121.66 | 72 | $8,759.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2024 12:25pm ET | $127.98 | 72 | $9,214.63 | $9,250.52 |
+$455.11 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $121.08 | 76 | $9,202.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2024 12:40pm ET | $117.06 | 76 | $8,896.56 | $8,944.84 |
$-305.68 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2024 9:35am ET | $117.88 | 75 | $8,841.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2024 3:25pm ET | $114.00 | 75 | $8,550.00 | $8,653.82 |
$-291.02 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $94.04 | 92 | $8,651.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2024 9:45am ET | $99.17 | 92 | $9,123.73 | $9,125.87 |
+$472.05 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 29, 2024 10:15am ET | $119.59 | 76 | $9,088.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 3, 2024 9:30am ET | $113.79 | 76 | $8,648.04 | $8,685.07 |
$-440.80 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 4, 2024 9:35am ET | $104.49 | 83 | $8,672.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 4, 2024 11:00am ET | $109.86 | 83 | $9,117.97 | $9,130.36 |
+$445.30 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 16, 2024 9:30am ET | $114.93 | 79 | $9,079.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 24, 2024 11:50am ET | $120.92 | 79 | $9,552.94 | $9,603.48 |
+$473.11 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 15, 2024 10:35am ET | $130.00 | 73 | $9,490.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $138.63 | 73 | $10,119.99 | $10,233.47 |
+$629.99 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 31, 2024 9:55am ET | $132.98 | 76 | $10,106.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2024 11:20am ET | $139.72 | 76 | $10,618.34 | $10,745.27 |
+$511.80 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2025 10:35am ET | $141.17 | 76 | $10,728.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $135.47 | 76 | $10,295.72 | $10,312.06 |
$-433.21 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 13, 2025 9:30am ET | $130.95 | 78 | $10,213.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $137.78 | 78 | $10,746.84 | $10,845.19 |
+$533.13 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $127.51 | 85 | $10,838.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 10:15am ET | $123.16 | 85 | $10,468.60 | $10,475.44 |
$-369.75 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $114.41 | 91 | $10,411.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2025 10:00am ET | $120.35 | 91 | $10,952.29 | $11,016.42 |
+$540.98 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 10:15am ET | $125.06 | 88 | $11,005.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2025 9:50am ET | $131.46 | 88 | $11,568.49 | $11,579.62 |
+$563.21 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 28, 2025 9:30am ET | $117.70 | 98 | $11,534.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 28, 2025 3:50pm ET | $124.45 | 98 | $12,196.10 | $12,241.12 |
+$661.50 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $113.65 | 107 | $12,160.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2025 10:30am ET | $109.91 | 107 | $11,760.37 | $11,841.48 |
$-399.65 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $104.49 | 113 | $11,807.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2025 12:15pm ET | $109.75 | 113 | $12,401.92 | $12,436.03 |
+$594.55 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $104.81 | 118 | $12,367.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $98.46 | 118 | $11,617.69 | $11,686.14 |
$-749.89 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $88.22 | 132 | $11,645.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:55am ET | $93.90 | 132 | $12,394.80 | $12,435.90 |
+$749.76 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $105.80 | 117 | $12,378.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2025 1:50pm ET | $102.47 | 117 | $11,988.41 | $12,045.70 |
$-390.19 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:55am ET | $96.84 | 124 | $12,008.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $103.85 | 124 | $12,877.40 | $12,914.94 |
+$869.24 (+7.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $105.15 | 122 | $12,828.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $113.27 | 122 | $13,818.93 | $13,905.57 |
+$990.63 (+7.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 22, 2025 9:50am ET | $164.85 | 84 | $13,847.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 24, 2025 9:35am ET | $173.16 | 84 | $14,545.44 | $14,603.61 |
+$698.04 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $181.34 | 80 | $14,506.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 27, 2025 9:35am ET | $190.53 | 80 | $15,242.40 | $15,339.21 |
+$735.60 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 9:35am ET | $182.22 | 84 | $15,306.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET | $194.33 | 84 | $16,323.99 | $16,356.72 |
+$1,017.51 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $173.99 | 94 | $16,355.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $184.56 | 94 | $17,348.64 | $17,350.30 |
+$993.58 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET | $180.48 | 96 | $17,326.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 10:40am ET | $189.55 | 96 | $18,196.32 | $18,220.54 |
+$870.24 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$18,220.54
Net Profit/Loss:
+$8,220.54
Total Return:
+82.21%