TSLA Marcus Grave Dancer's Analysis
to 2026-05-06 19:55:00+00 • 48 trades executed
+39.06%
2 Years Return
$15,458.11
Current Value
54%
Win Rate
$11,116.09
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.3 neutral
20d Trend
-11.8%
5d Trend
-10.2%
EMA20 Dist
-9.3%
ATR%
3.6%
Range Pos
7%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
56
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
5.3/15
Profit Factor
3.1/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality
64.9/100
× Confidence 0.86
= 55.6
30-Day Momentum
Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
88,620
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$11,116.09
Current Value
$15,458.11
Total P&L
$4,342.01
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.19
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
41
Winners / Losers
22 /
19
Best Trade
+5.76%
Worst Trade
-9.26%
Avg Trade Return
+0.93%
Avg Hold Time
2.1d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,003,838.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$4,342.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$4,342.01
Gross Return
+39.06%
Net Return (after fees)
+39.06%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 TSLA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Grave Dancer had $11,116.09 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2024 9:30am ET | $171.66 | 64 | $10,986.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2024 12:00pm ET | $181.30 | 64 | $11,603.21 | $11,733.12 |
+$617.03 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 11, 2024 11:35am ET | $252.90 | 46 | $11,633.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 11, 2024 12:00pm ET | $243.70 | 46 | $11,210.20 | $11,309.93 |
$-423.20 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2024 9:30am ET | $221.59 | 51 | $11,301.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2024 10:20am ET | $233.20 | 51 | $11,893.20 | $11,901.80 |
+$591.88 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $187.68 | 63 | $11,823.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2024 9:55am ET | $197.65 | 63 | $12,452.08 | $12,530.04 |
+$628.24 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2024 9:40am ET | $245.89 | 50 | $12,294.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2024 2:30pm ET | $238.26 | 50 | $11,913.00 | $12,148.79 |
$-381.25 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2024 9:50am ET | $232.59 | 52 | $12,094.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 11, 2024 9:30am ET | $215.63 | 52 | $11,212.76 | $11,266.87 |
$-881.92 (-7.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2024 9:35am ET | $239.36 | 47 | $11,249.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 5, 2024 9:35am ET | $252.38 | 47 | $11,861.86 | $11,878.81 |
+$611.94 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 3:00pm ET | $446.50 | 26 | $11,609.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2024 3:40pm ET | $432.06 | 26 | $11,233.43 | $11,503.24 |
$-375.57 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 20, 2024 3:55pm ET | $420.60 | 27 | $11,356.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2024 9:30am ET | $442.94 | 27 | $11,959.38 | $12,106.42 |
+$603.18 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 27, 2024 10:00am ET | $433.98 | 27 | $11,717.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 30, 2024 9:50am ET | $420.36 | 27 | $11,349.72 | $11,738.68 |
$-367.74 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $381.85 | 30 | $11,455.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 3, 2025 1:35pm ET | $401.36 | 30 | $12,040.65 | $12,323.83 |
+$585.15 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $418.15 | 29 | $12,126.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $398.95 | 29 | $11,569.55 | $11,767.17 |
$-556.66 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $385.55 | 30 | $11,566.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $371.49 | 30 | $11,144.70 | $11,345.37 |
$-421.80 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2025 9:35am ET | $320.26 | 35 | $11,209.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 10:15am ET | $308.22 | 35 | $10,787.70 | $10,923.97 |
$-421.40 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2025 9:50am ET | $268.60 | 40 | $10,744.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 3:10pm ET | $282.20 | 40 | $11,287.92 | $11,467.87 |
+$543.91 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $267.50 | 42 | $11,235.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 7, 2025 10:30am ET | $258.30 | 42 | $10,848.60 | $11,081.47 |
$-386.40 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2025 10:30am ET | $237.71 | 46 | $10,934.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2025 1:00pm ET | $228.23 | 46 | $10,498.58 | $10,645.52 |
$-435.96 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2025 9:50am ET | $237.72 | 44 | $10,459.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 14, 2025 2:30pm ET | $249.89 | 44 | $10,995.16 | $11,180.99 |
+$535.48 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2025 9:30am ET | $227.67 | 49 | $11,155.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2025 3:05pm ET | $240.78 | 49 | $11,798.22 | $11,823.63 |
+$642.64 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 28, 2025 10:30am ET | $262.16 | 45 | $11,797.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2025 9:30am ET | $244.62 | 45 | $11,007.68 | $11,034.10 |
$-789.53 (-6.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $254.40 | 43 | $10,939.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2025 11:15am ET | $268.90 | 43 | $11,562.70 | $11,657.60 |
+$623.50 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $257.61 | 45 | $11,592.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 4, 2025 9:40am ET | $249.10 | 45 | $11,209.50 | $11,274.44 |
$-383.16 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2025 9:40am ET | $216.07 | 52 | $11,235.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:50am ET | $227.50 | 52 | $11,830.00 | $11,869.06 |
+$594.62 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2025 12:35pm ET | $233.19 | 50 | $11,659.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 3:05pm ET | $224.50 | 50 | $11,225.00 | $11,434.55 |
$-434.51 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 12:00pm ET | $243.50 | 46 | $11,200.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 2:40pm ET | $255.97 | 46 | $11,774.62 | $12,008.40 |
+$573.85 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $231.67 | 51 | $11,815.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2025 10:05am ET | $224.44 | 51 | $11,446.38 | $11,639.61 |
$-368.79 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2025 9:35am ET | $273.78 | 42 | $11,498.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2025 10:30am ET | $288.63 | 42 | $12,122.57 | $12,263.43 |
+$623.81 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | May 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $334.38 | 36 | $12,037.58 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $352.56 | 36 | $12,692.33 | $12,918.18 |
+$654.75 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 4, 2025 10:05am ET | $330.06 | 39 | $12,872.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $319.77 | 39 | $12,471.10 | $12,516.94 |
$-401.24 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2025 9:30am ET | $284.88 | 43 | $12,249.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 9, 2025 1:50pm ET | $300.34 | 43 | $12,914.62 | $13,181.92 |
+$664.98 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2025 10:05am ET | $325.79 | 40 | $13,031.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $295.61 | 40 | $11,824.29 | $11,974.61 |
$-1,207.31 (-9.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $290.80 | 41 | $11,922.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 10, 2025 9:35am ET | $307.46 | 41 | $12,605.86 | $12,657.67 |
+$683.06 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $304.93 | 41 | $12,502.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 25, 2025 11:45am ET | $320.61 | 41 | $13,145.01 | $13,300.52 |
+$642.86 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $426.80 | 31 | $13,230.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $449.22 | 31 | $13,925.82 | $13,995.55 |
+$695.02 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 10, 2025 11:30am ET | $417.24 | 33 | $13,768.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2025 10:25am ET | $439.44 | 33 | $14,501.52 | $14,728.15 |
+$732.60 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $416.54 | 35 | $14,578.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2025 12:35pm ET | $438.95 | 35 | $15,363.25 | $15,512.65 |
+$784.50 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $449.45 | 34 | $15,281.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $429.82 | 34 | $14,613.78 | $14,845.14 |
$-667.52 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $386.81 | 38 | $14,698.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 14, 2025 11:20am ET | $407.49 | 38 | $15,484.68 | $15,630.88 |
+$785.74 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $415.36 | 37 | $15,368.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET | $402.77 | 37 | $14,902.43 | $15,164.99 |
$-465.89 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $364.39 | 41 | $14,939.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 11:25am ET | $353.29 | 41 | $14,484.89 | $14,709.90 |
$-455.09 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
0m held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $373.69 | 39 | $14,573.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 11:10am ET | $392.88 | 39 | $15,322.13 | $15,458.11 |
+$748.21 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
0m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$15,458.11
Net Profit/Loss:
+$5,458.11
Total Return:
+54.58%