Compendium › Marcus Panic Buyer › MRNA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRNA
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Panic Buyer's Analysis

to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 10 trades executed

+14.56%
2 Years Return
$11,455.51
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$10,000.00
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:50:57

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 61%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
10.2/35
Total Return
9.9/25
Win Rate
3.8/15
Profit Factor
1.9/15
Consistency
7.5/10
Raw Quality 33.2/100
× Confidence 0.61 = 20.2

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (61%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
66,343
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
535 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)

Market Closed (21 days)

2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary

Starting Capital
$10,000.00
Current Value
$11,455.51
Total P&L
$1,455.51
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.30

Trade Statistics

Total Trades
10
Winners / Losers
5 / 5
Best Trade
+9.50%
Worst Trade
-3.93%
Avg Trade Return
+1.50%
Avg Hold Time
1.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$215,180.88
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,455.51
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,455.51
Gross Return
+14.56%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.56%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 535 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Complete Trade History

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Panic Buyer had $10,000.00 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 5, 2024 10:55am ET $82.11 121 $9,934.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 15, 2024 11:00am ET $86.64 121 $10,483.44 $10,548.74 +$548.74
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 3, 2025 9:30am ET $26.13 403 $10,530.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 4, 2025 9:35am ET $25.17 403 $10,143.51 $10,161.86 $-386.88
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2025 9:35am ET $23.68 429 $10,158.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2025 10:10am ET $25.93 429 $11,123.97 $11,127.06 +$965.21
(+9.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2025 11:15am ET $25.53 435 $11,105.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2025 3:05pm ET $24.74 435 $10,761.90 $10,783.41 $-343.65
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2025 9:35am ET $24.96 432 $10,782.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2025 10:10am ET $24.16 432 $10,437.12 $10,437.81 $-345.60
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2025 10:45am ET $26.28 397 $10,434.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2025 11:50am ET $25.43 397 $10,095.71 $10,098.87 $-338.95
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2025 9:30am ET $23.57 428 $10,087.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2025 10:35am ET $24.77 428 $10,601.56 $10,612.47 +$513.60
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2025 1:25pm ET $25.23 420 $10,594.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2025 9:30am ET $27.00 420 $11,340.00 $11,357.97 +$745.50
(+7.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 11:00am ET $48.98 231 $11,314.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 3:20pm ET $51.43 231 $11,880.33 $11,923.92 +$565.95
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 3:20pm ET $50.08 238 $11,919.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $48.11 238 $11,450.66 $11,455.51 $-468.41
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,455.51
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,455.51
Total Return: +14.56%
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