Compendium › Marcus Panic Buyer › RIOT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
RIOT
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Panic Buyer's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 2 trades in period

+0.86%
Year to Date Return
$12,063.95
Current Value
50%
Win Rate
$11,960.77
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 13:24:42

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

26
Lifetime
Confidence: 61%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
14.5/35
Total Return
11.1/25
Win Rate
7.5/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
7.5/10
Raw Quality 43.1/100
× Confidence 0.61 = 26.3

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (61%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,895
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$11,960.77
Current Value
$12,063.95
Period P&L
$103.18
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
2
Winners / Losers
1 / 1
Best Trade
+6.40%
Worst Trade
-5.20%
Avg Trade Return
+0.60%
Avg Hold Time
10.8h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$49,448.08
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$103.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$103.18
Gross Return
+0.86%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.86%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 2 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Panic Buyer had $11,960.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET $11.57 1,033 $11,951.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 1:15pm ET $12.31 1,033 $12,716.23 $12,725.50 +$764.73
(+6.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:10pm ET $12.60 1,010 $12,720.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $11.94 1,010 $12,059.40 $12,063.95 $-661.55
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,063.95
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,063.95
Total Return: +20.64%
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