SPXU Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 41 trades in period
-12.24%
Last Year Return
$8,746.31
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$9,966.25
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
3
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality
3.5/100
× Confidence 0.96
= 3.3
30-Day Momentum
1
-17.0%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4
Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
20,089
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
261 days
Data Gaps
7 days with gaps
Data Gap Notice
The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.
2025-05-19 (34 candles), 2025-06-09 (38 candles), 2025-07-03 (24 candles), 2025-09-16 (36 candles), 2025-10-21 (28 candles), 2025-10-28 (38 candles), 2025-11-28 (no data)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$9,966.25
Current Value
$8,746.31
Period P&L
$-1,219.94
Max Drawdown
-30.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
41
Winners / Losers
16 /
25
Best Trade
+6.24%
Worst Trade
-8.61%
Avg Trade Return
-0.22%
Avg Hold Time
4.8d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$731,386.75
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,219.94
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,219.94
Gross Return
-12.24%
Net Return (after fees)
-12.24%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 261 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 41 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,966.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 8, 2025 10:05am ET | $87.38 | 114 | $9,961.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 10:10am ET | $81.20 | 114 | $9,256.80 | $9,261.73 |
$-704.52 (-7.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 16, 2025 10:15am ET | $76.72 | 120 | $9,206.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 11:20am ET | $80.96 | 120 | $9,715.20 | $9,770.53 |
+$508.80 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | May 27, 2025 9:35am ET | $77.84 | 125 | $9,730.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 28, 2025 3:55pm ET | $75.24 | 125 | $9,405.05 | $9,445.58 |
$-324.95 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 3, 2025 3:20pm ET | $75.52 | 125 | $9,440.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2025 3:15pm ET | $73.12 | 125 | $9,140.00 | $9,145.58 |
$-300.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 16, 2025 9:45am ET | $73.39 | 124 | $9,100.01 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 25, 2025 9:40am ET | $70.28 | 124 | $8,714.72 | $8,760.28 |
$-385.29 (-4.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 1, 2025 3:45pm ET | $67.04 | 130 | $8,715.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 3, 2025 10:50am ET | $64.98 | 130 | $8,447.40 | $8,492.48 |
$-267.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 10, 2025 12:25pm ET | $64.96 | 130 | $8,444.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2025 2:35pm ET | $62.94 | 130 | $8,182.20 | $8,229.94 |
$-262.55 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.1d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2025 10:25am ET | $64.30 | 127 | $8,166.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $62.12 | 127 | $7,889.19 | $7,953.03 |
$-276.91 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 13, 2025 2:10pm ET | $60.10 | 132 | $7,933.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 20, 2025 11:00am ET | $63.26 | 132 | $8,350.32 | $8,370.15 |
+$417.12 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 26, 2025 2:55pm ET | $60.44 | 138 | $8,340.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 5, 2025 9:50am ET | $58.60 | 138 | $8,086.86 | $8,116.28 |
$-253.86 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 11, 2025 12:25pm ET | $57.10 | 142 | $8,108.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 19, 2025 3:05pm ET | $55.34 | 142 | $7,858.28 | $7,866.36 |
$-249.92 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 26, 2025 3:20pm ET | $55.09 | 142 | $7,823.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 2:35pm ET | $53.38 | 142 | $7,579.96 | $7,622.97 |
$-243.39 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 8, 2025 10:30am ET | $52.82 | 144 | $7,606.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 12:40pm ET | $55.64 | 144 | $8,011.87 | $8,028.77 |
+$405.79 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 2:25pm ET | $54.50 | 147 | $8,011.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 20, 2025 1:10pm ET | $52.82 | 147 | $7,764.54 | $7,782.10 |
$-246.67 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 27, 2025 9:40am ET | $50.10 | 155 | $7,765.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 4, 2025 2:30pm ET | $52.68 | 155 | $8,165.46 | $8,182.06 |
+$399.96 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.2d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:40am ET | $50.44 | 162 | $8,171.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 10:15am ET | $53.06 | 162 | $8,596.04 | $8,606.83 |
+$424.76 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 12:05pm ET | $54.28 | 158 | $8,576.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:35am ET | $57.02 | 158 | $9,009.16 | $9,039.75 |
+$432.92 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET | $53.75 | 168 | $9,030.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 10:35am ET | $52.10 | 168 | $8,752.80 | $8,762.55 |
$-277.20 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 9:50am ET | $50.64 | 173 | $8,760.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 11:15am ET | $49.04 | 173 | $8,483.92 | $8,485.75 |
$-276.80 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9.1d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 1:35pm ET | $50.56 | 167 | $8,443.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 1:45pm ET | $53.15 | 167 | $8,875.22 | $8,917.44 |
+$431.70 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 9:35am ET | $51.42 | 173 | $8,895.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 22, 2025 12:50pm ET | $49.84 | 173 | $8,622.34 | $8,644.12 |
$-273.32 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 23, 2025 1:20pm ET | $49.32 | 175 | $8,631.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 24, 2025 11:35am ET | $47.82 | 175 | $8,367.63 | $8,380.74 |
$-263.38 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 3:35pm ET | $47.87 | 175 | $8,377.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 1:20pm ET | $50.28 | 175 | $8,799.00 | $8,802.49 |
+$421.75 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET | $49.35 | 178 | $8,784.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:40am ET | $47.76 | 178 | $8,501.87 | $8,520.06 |
$-282.43 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $47.15 | 180 | $8,487.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET | $49.70 | 180 | $8,946.00 | $8,978.34 |
+$458.28 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET | $50.19 | 178 | $8,933.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET | $48.63 | 178 | $8,656.14 | $8,700.66 |
$-277.68 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 12:25pm ET | $47.21 | 184 | $8,686.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $47.31 | 184 | $8,705.04 | $8,719.06 |
+$18.40 (+0.2%) |
📅 Sim Ended
3.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:20am ET | $49.94 | 174 | $8,690.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.25 | 174 | $8,395.50 | $8,424.30 |
$-294.76 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $48.68 | 173 | $8,422.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.67 | 173 | $8,938.91 | $8,940.93 |
+$516.63 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $49.66 | 180 | $8,938.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $52.65 | 180 | $9,477.00 | $9,479.11 |
+$538.18 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $53.22 | 178 | $9,472.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 3:30pm ET | $51.43 | 178 | $9,154.54 | $9,161.38 |
$-317.73 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 1:10pm ET | $51.58 | 177 | $9,129.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:05am ET | $54.18 | 177 | $9,589.86 | $9,621.56 |
+$460.18 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:30pm ET | $53.20 | 180 | $9,576.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.52 | 180 | $10,173.60 | $10,218.98 |
+$597.42 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $55.55 | 183 | $10,165.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET | $58.36 | 183 | $10,679.88 | $10,733.21 |
+$514.23 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.3d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $59.91 | 179 | $10,723.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET | $57.79 | 179 | $10,344.41 | $10,353.73 |
$-379.48 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 3:30pm ET | $55.18 | 187 | $10,318.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET | $58.00 | 187 | $10,845.81 | $10,880.88 |
+$527.15 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $54.92 | 198 | $10,873.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $50.19 | 198 | $9,937.82 | $9,944.93 |
$-935.95 (-8.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $50.10 | 198 | $9,919.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 3:50pm ET | $48.55 | 198 | $9,612.39 | $9,637.71 |
$-307.22 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:50pm ET | $46.56 | 206 | $9,592.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 16, 2026 11:15am ET | $45.08 | 206 | $9,285.45 | $9,330.77 |
$-306.94 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 17, 2026 12:50pm ET | $43.16 | 216 | $9,322.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $41.77 | 216 | $9,022.32 | $9,030.60 |
$-300.17 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 10:40am ET | $41.60 | 217 | $9,027.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:55am ET | $40.29 | 217 | $8,742.93 | $8,746.31 |
$-284.29 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$8,746.31
Net Profit/Loss:
$-1,253.69
Total Return:
-12.54%