Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-08 01:50:49

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.36%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.75
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
36.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.9%
5d Trend
-2.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 80%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
9.9/35
Total Return
13.8/25
Win Rate
9.7/15
Profit Factor
5.4/15
Consistency
7.4/10
Raw Quality 46.2/100
× Confidence 0.80 = 37.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (80%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,105
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-08 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$11,399.29
Current Value
$14,538.83
Period P&L
$3,139.51
Max Drawdown
-16.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.61

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
11 / 4
Best Trade
+7.19%
Worst Trade
-3.46%
Avg Trade Return
+1.96%
Avg Hold Time
22d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$390,187.41
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$3,139.51
Net P&L (after fees)
$3,139.51
Gross Return
+27.54%
Net Return (after fees)
+27.54%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 VTI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,399.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET $268.64 40 $10,745.43
🔴 SELL May 12, 2025 9:30am ET $285.76 40 $11,430.40 $11,672.92 +$684.97
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
12d held
2 🟢 BUY May 13, 2025 2:40pm ET $289.65 40 $11,586.00
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2025 2:40pm ET $296.65 40 $11,866.00 $11,952.92 +$280.00
(+2.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 13, 2025 2:40pm ET $293.26 40 $11,730.40
🔴 SELL Jul 3, 2025 10:40am ET $308.02 40 $12,320.80 $12,543.32 +$590.40
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 7, 2025 2:20pm ET $304.56 41 $12,486.96
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2025 2:20pm ET $311.23 41 $12,760.47 $12,816.83 +$273.51
(+2.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 8, 2025 11:35am ET $312.16 41 $12,798.56
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2025 9:30am ET $320.33 41 $13,133.53 $13,151.80 +$334.97
(+2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2025 10:35am ET $319.68 41 $13,106.88
🔴 SELL Oct 9, 2025 10:35am ET $330.41 41 $13,546.81 $13,591.73 +$439.93
(+3.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 10, 2025 10:55am ET $329.59 41 $13,513.19
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET $333.46 41 $13,671.84 $13,750.38 +$158.65
(+1.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
31d held
8 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 9:40am ET $334.30 41 $13,706.30
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 9:50am ET $323.78 41 $13,274.98 $13,319.06 $-431.32
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 11:05am ET $325.11 40 $13,004.40
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2025 11:05am ET $335.74 40 $13,429.60 $13,744.26 +$425.20
(+3.3%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
10 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 2:00pm ET $337.37 40 $13,494.80
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 2:00pm ET $336.61 40 $13,464.58 $13,714.04 $-30.22
(-0.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 2:55pm ET $340.86 40 $13,634.40
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $342.92 40 $13,717.00 $13,796.64 +$82.60
(+0.6%)
📅 Sim Ended
18d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET $334.45 41 $13,712.25
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $322.86 41 $13,237.26 $13,321.65 $-474.99
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
29.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET $323.90 41 $13,279.90
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 1:50pm ET $314.14 41 $12,879.54 $12,921.29 $-400.36
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:50pm ET $311.81 41 $12,784.21
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $334.23 41 $13,703.52 $13,840.60 +$919.31
(+7.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 2:25pm ET $334.99 41 $13,734.59
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 11:45am ET $352.02 41 $14,432.82 $14,538.83 +$698.23
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,538.83
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,538.83
Total Return: +45.39%
Back to Marcus Reversal