Compendium › Marcus Reversal › ARKK
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
ARKK
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 28 trades in period

+25.29%
Year to Date Return
$12,751.61
Current Value
46%
Win Rate
$10,177.52
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:02:05

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

21
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.7/35
Total Return
12.1/25
Win Rate
0.7/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 21.9/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 21.4

30-Day Momentum

3
-2.2%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3 Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,316
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
124 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,177.52
Current Value
$12,751.61
Period P&L
$2,574.09
Max Drawdown
-26.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.18

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
13 / 15
Best Trade
+7.55%
Worst Trade
-3.97%
Avg Trade Return
+0.82%
Avg Hold Time
5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$634,989.42
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,574.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,574.09
Gross Return
+25.29%
Net Return (after fees)
+25.29%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 124 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,177.52 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 18, 2025 2:40pm ET $78.81 132 $10,402.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET $82.94 132 $10,948.08 $10,982.73 +$545.16
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
25.8d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 9:35am ET $82.95 132 $10,949.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $79.66 132 $10,514.46 $10,547.79 $-434.94
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET $79.08 133 $10,517.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 10:40am ET $76.67 133 $10,197.11 $10,227.26 $-320.53
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 11:20am ET $75.59 135 $10,204.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 12:10pm ET $73.03 135 $9,858.38 $9,880.98 $-346.27
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 12:30pm ET $69.13 142 $9,816.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 10:10am ET $66.91 142 $9,501.22 $9,565.74 $-315.24
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:05pm ET $69.88 136 $9,503.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $72.46 136 $9,855.24 $9,917.30 +$351.56
(+3.7%) 		📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $72.30 137 $9,905.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:10am ET $70.07 137 $9,599.59 $9,611.79 $-305.51
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET $68.75 139 $9,556.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 10:40am ET $72.35 139 $10,055.96 $10,110.80 +$499.01
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $71.74 140 $10,043.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 11:00am ET $69.51 140 $9,731.40 $9,798.60 $-312.20
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 3:10pm ET $71.81 136 $9,765.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 9:55am ET $75.40 136 $10,254.40 $10,287.52 +$488.92
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:55am ET $72.08 142 $10,235.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $69.83 142 $9,915.86 $9,968.38 $-319.14
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET $70.30 141 $9,912.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET $68.14 141 $9,608.44 $9,664.52 $-303.86
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $64.92 148 $9,608.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $68.67 148 $10,162.42 $10,218.80 +$554.28
(+5.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $66.05 154 $10,171.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $69.46 154 $10,696.84 $10,743.94 +$525.14
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $67.80 158 $10,712.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $72.92 158 $11,521.55 $11,553.09 +$809.15
(+7.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET $68.65 168 $11,533.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $73.53 168 $12,353.04 $12,372.93 +$819.84
(+7.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET $75.90 163 $12,371.70 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:30am ET $79.82 163 $13,010.66 $13,011.89 +$638.96
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:05am ET $77.94 166 $12,938.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $75.53 166 $12,537.98 $12,611.83 $-400.06
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 3:00pm ET $76.89 164 $12,609.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $74.14 164 $12,158.96 $12,160.83 $-451.00
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 3:45pm ET $75.76 160 $12,122.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 11:05am ET $79.63 160 $12,740.78 $12,779.21 +$618.38
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
10.8d held
21 🟢 BUY May 12, 2026 11:15am ET $77.52 164 $12,713.28 — — —
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 11:55am ET $75.16 164 $12,326.24 $12,392.17 $-387.04
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
22 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 2:20pm ET $73.74 168 $12,388.32 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:35am ET $77.59 168 $13,035.12 $13,038.97 +$646.80
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
23 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 11:55am ET $77.04 169 $13,019.76 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 3:20pm ET $80.96 169 $13,681.40 $13,700.61 +$661.64
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 9:35am ET $80.09 171 $13,695.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:50am ET $77.68 171 $13,283.28 $13,288.50 $-412.11
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 12:20pm ET $80.08 165 $13,213.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET $77.38 165 $12,766.88 $12,842.17 $-446.33
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:10pm ET $75.69 169 $12,791.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:55am ET $73.27 169 $12,382.63 $12,433.19 $-408.98
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 3:05pm ET $73.51 169 $12,424.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $78.25 169 $13,224.25 $13,233.41 +$800.22
(+6.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:55am ET $79.11 167 $13,211.37 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $76.22 167 $12,729.57 $12,751.61 $-481.80
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,751.61
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,751.61
Total Return: +27.52%
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